NFL MVP Predictions: Allen, Barkley Top Picks in 2-Man Race
- Saquon Barkley has more rushing yards in the second half of games than 30 NFL teams.
- Josh Allen is the heavy favorite in NFL MVP odds.
- Jared Goff is completing 71.8% of his passes and proving he’s no longer just a system QB.
- Get all the NFL odds at the BetUS sportsbook.
We’ve hit the home stretch of the 2024 NFL season, and the MVP race is heating up.
For the first time in years, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is on the outside looking in. Even more shocking? Joe Burrow, who’s thrown 30 touchdowns to just five interceptions for Cincinnati, is also MIA from the conversation, thanks to the Bengals’ pitiful 4-8 record.
It’s a quarterback-heavy affair as usual, but this year, Philadelphia running back Saquon Barkley is breaking through like he’s dodging defenders in the fourth quarter. Let’s break down the favorites, highlight a spicy longshot, and figure out who is the best NFL prediction to take home the trophy.
NFL MVP Odds
- Patrick Mahomes +2000
- Josh Allen -245
- Lamar Jackson +800
- Jordan Love +6500
- Justin Herbert +8000
- Jalen Hurts +6500
- Jared Goff +1200
- Baker Mayfield +8000
- Jayden Daniels +6500
- Saquon Barkley +350
- Sam Darnold +8000
Breaking Down the 4 MVP Front-runners
1. Josh Allen (-245): The Safe Bet but Far from Sexy
Buffalo’s Josh Allen is your current MVP front-runner on the NFL futures odds board at BetUS, mostly because he’s playing mistake-free football. The Bills’ gunslinger has dialed back his YOLO tendencies, turning the ball over just seven times while accounting for 27 total touchdowns. He’s matured — good for him — but MVPs don’t win for “personal growth.”
Oh look at me I’m Josh Allen. I have a rocket arm. I run over the best athletes in the world. I make insane plays every week. I’m marrying Hailee Steinfeld. I’m the king of my city.
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) December 2, 2024
Statistically, Allen’s numbers are solid, not spectacular. He ranks 13th in passing yards and is tied for sixth in touchdown passes. However, he’s leading a Bills team sitting atop the AFC East, which holds weight with voters. If Buffalo secures the No. 1 seed in the AFC, Allen’s case strengthens, but let’s be honest — it feels more like a “default MVP” season than an awe-inspiring one.
2. Saquon Barkley (+350): The Highlight Reel We Deserve
If the MVP actually meant “most valuable player,” Saquon Barkley would already be clearing a spot on his shelf. Barkley isn’t just having a great year; he’s on pace to shatter the single-season rushing record, albeit with one extra game than Eric Dickerson.
He’s racked up 2,123 total yards so far, including 982 of his 1,499 rushing yards in the second half of games. That’s more than 30 NFL teams. Yes, the headline of the NFL news today should be that Barkley is basically outperforming entire teams on the ground.
Most Rush Yards in the NFL:
1. Saquon Barkley – 1,499
2. Derrick Henry – 1,407
3. Josh Jacobs – 987
4. Saquon Barkley *just in the 2nd half* – 982
5. Jahmyr Gibbs – 973 pic.twitter.com/19z97Jezvg— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 2, 2024
What sets Barkley apart is his clutch factor.
The dude has five touchdowns of 20+ yards in the second half over the last three weeks alone. Forget grinding out tough yards — this man is dragging defenders and rewriting history simultaneously. If you’re betting value and excitement, Barkley is your guy. He’s carrying the Eagles’ offense, and with a cupcake schedule down the stretch, he’s a legitimate threat to set an NFL record and crash the QB-dominated MVP party.
Looking for an NFL player prop in Week 14? Barkley will be going up against the NFL’s worst run defense in Carolina, which allows 166.8 yards per game.
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3. Lamar Jackson (+800): The Name We Know
Lamar Jackson’s MVP campaign took a hit after the Baltimore Ravens lost to Philly in Week 13, but don’t count him out yet. Per NFL betting trends, he’s on pace to obliterate his previous MVP-winning numbers, with projections of 4,302 passing yards, 886 rushing yards, and 32 total touchdowns.
So when you blitz Lamar Jackson, he’s the most efficient QB in football.
BUT if you don’t blitz Lamar Jackson, he’s also the most efficient QB in football. pic.twitter.com/5inual8AHs
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 2, 2024
However, Jackson’s candidacy suffers from the Ravens’ inconsistent performances. Baltimore’s defense has been shaky, forcing the offense to play hero ball more often than not. Jackson is still electric, but with Barkley making jaws drop and Allen leading a division, it feels like Lamar is fighting an uphill battle for voters’ attention.
4. Jared Goff (+1200): The Longshot Worth a Sprinkle
Is Jared Goff an MVP candidate? According to the NFL odds, yes, he’s very much in the mix.
Welcome to 2024, folks. The Lions have the best offense and record in the NFL, and Goff is quietly shredding defenses. He’s completing a ridiculous 71.8% of his passes, averaging 8.8 yards per attempt, and has 22 touchdowns to nine picks.
Jared Goff and the rest of team eats their first turkey W meanwhile David Montgomery eats carrot pic.twitter.com/FTOCIZfiLm
— 𝙏𝙧𝙞𝙗𝙖𝙡 𝙏𝙚𝙚𝙣 🎄❄️⚡️| #𝓞𝓣𝓒 (@Rlop1234Goat) November 28, 2024
The Lions’ offense has put up 40+ points in four games this season, including a mind-blowing 42-19 win over Seattle, where Goff completed all 18 passes he threw. While he’s a long shot, he’s worth a sprinkle for those who bet online. If Detroit finishes strong and Goff keeps carving up defenses, don’t be surprised if the narrative shifts in his favor.
Who to Bet On?
Let’s be real: This is a two-man race between Allen and Barkley. Allen’s case is steady leadership and leading an AFC powerhouse. Barkley’s case? Pure, unfiltered wow factor. Barkley is doing things we’ve never seen before and is poised to set records.
If you’re looking for value and excitement, Barkley at +350 is your play in NFL picks. But if you want to hedge with the voters’ tendency to fall back on quarterbacks, Allen is the “safe” (read: boring) bet. Want a little chaos? Throw a dart at Goff because who doesn’t love a longshot story?
Verdict: The safe bet is Allen and the spicy pick is Barkley. Sprinkle a little on Goff, and enjoy the show.
Bet on the NFL MVP Winner Today!
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets
Question Of The Day
Who won the MVP award in 2023?
Lamar Jackson won the MVP in 2023 for the second time after hoisting the hardware in
