NFL Odds: Use These NFL Stats to Pad Betting Profits
- Advance statistics help to identify NFL betting trends
- Utilize these tools to help with your picks and predictions.
- Get all the NFL odds at the BetUS sportsbook
Knowing the basics isn’t enough if you’re gearing up for NFL playoff betting. It’s like attending a gourmet dinner with a box of fast-food fries. Enter advanced NFL stats, the secret sauce to making smarter bets. These stats go beyond the box score to give you a sharper edge for NFL predictions.

Let’s dig into three key metrics — DVOA, EPA , and PFF Player Grades — that can help you dominate playoff betting and impress your girlfriend’s dad at Christmas with your newfound football IQ.
3 Metrics to Boost Your NFL Betting
1. Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
Think of DVOA as your NFL GPS, guiding you through the complexities of team performance. It measures a team’s success on each play relative to the league average while accounting for the situation and opponent’s strength. Unlike raw stats, DVOA offers context.
For example, per NFL betting stats, let’s say the New York Giants are ranked fifth in rushing offense DVOA while their very hypothetical playoff opponent sits at 28th in rushing defense. That’s a green light for betting on New York to extend a lead late in the game by controlling the clock on the ground.
Why It’s Crucial for Bettors: DVOA helps you understand the “why” behind a team’s record. It’s especially useful for identifying matchups where the surface-level NFL news might steer you wrong. A team with a gaudy win total might look unstoppable, but if their DVOA is mediocre, it means they’ve been feasting on weak opponents.
Pro Tip: Look for teams with high DVOA rankings in both passing defense and rushing offense — an ideal combo for extending leads. Conversely, teams with poor passing defense DVOA are prime candidates for opponents to mount a comeback.
2. Expected Points Added (EPA)
EPA quantifies how much a play contributes to a team’s scoring chances. It’s like measuring how much a single ingredient elevates a recipe. A QB with a high EPA per dropback? That’s your Top Chef and Bam! He’s about to kick your online betting up a notch.
Picture this: The Ravens’ offense has the highest EPA per play on play-action passes, while their opponent’s defense ranks dead last in defending play-action. That’s a betting goldmine for NFL prop bets like total points or QB passing yards.
Why It’s Essential for Bettors: EPA shines when evaluating quarterbacks. Playoff success often boils down to QB play, and EPA per dropback is a stellar way to compare signal-callers. It’s also a fantastic tool for NFL live betting — if a team’s EPA spikes in the first half, they’re likely scheming well and could continue outperforming expectations.
Shortcoming Alert: EPA isn’t opponent-adjusted. If a team has been steamrolling a cupcake schedule, their EPA might be misleading. Pair it with DVOA to account for strength of schedule and you’ve got a powerful betting duo.
3. PFF Player Grades
When NFL injuries hit and backups enter the fray, PFF Player Grades are your scouting report. Graded on a -2 to +2 scale for each play, these ratings break down individual player performance across various roles.
Imagine a scenario where the Bengals’ starting corner is out and his replacement has a dreadful 45.8 PFF grade in coverage. The opposing QB, who thrives on deep throws, will likely exploit that mismatch. This insight is gold for player props or alternate NFL spreads.
Why It’s Vital for Bettors: PFF grades let you zero in on skill gaps. Whether it’s the trenches, secondary or receiving corps, you can pinpoint mismatches that the casual bettor misses. It’s also useful for gauging how a team might adjust to injuries, especially if key depth players have strong grades.
The Catch: PFF grades are manually created, which means they’re not perfect. Analysts can’t always know a player’s exact assignment, leading to some “shrug emoji” moments. Even so, these grades remain a fantastic tool for making sharper NFL picks.
Playoff football betting isn’t just about gut feelings or blindly following the headlines. It’s about understanding the nuances — those advanced metrics that separate smart bettors from, well, the guy who bets his mortgage on the coin toss.
Whether you’re diving into DVOA, analyzing EPA or studying PFF Player Grades, these stats give you the tools to read between the lines of NFL odds and make informed wagers.
So, this playoff season, ditch the clichés and embrace the math. It’s the closest thing to having Tony Romo’s mind but without the awkward jokes about quarterbacks calling their moms. May your bets be bold and your bankroll merry.
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets
Questions Of The Day
Where to find advanced metrics?
There are several resources, but I like to use EVAnalytics and TeamRankings for my NFL betting trends and stats.