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NFL Season Player Props: San Francisco 49ers

With the NFL season just around the corner, it’s time to put those fantasy football muscles to work and make some season-long prop bets. We’ve analyzed the hundreds of props posted at the BetUS sportsbook and came up with the best bets for individual player props for the 2021 season.

Here are the plays for San Francisco 49ers:

George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers works out during training camp
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images/AFP

Raheem Mostert

Rushing Yards

The NFL predictions for Mostert are not too flattering. The 28-year-old may end up becoming the 1B to second-round draft pick Trey Sermon’s 1A even if he is listed as the incumbent starter. But the 49ers should have a run-heavy style of play-calling similar to 2019 where they ran the ball 51.4 percent of the time, second-most behind Baltimore.

This would give Mostert plenty of opportunities to break 750.5 yards, which is only 44.1 yards per game. He’s averaged 47.1 in San Francisco. However, Mostert is also brittle and could miss games. It may be more pragmatic to view him going below this number.

Rushing Touchdowns

In 2019, Mostert hit pay dirt eight times as a runner. He played all 16 games and emerged as the best back against the likes of Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida. Competing against uber-talented rookie Sermon and Wayne Gallman, who scored all six of his touchdowns in the red zone for the New York Giants, will make it tougher to go over 5½ TD’s.

Best Pick: Under 750½ Rushing Yards (-115)

Deebo Samuel

Receptions

Samuel was another Niner who felt the wrath of the injury bug last season. He was limited to just seven games, though he still hauled in 33 receptions with a sterling 75 percent catch rate. Samuel averages four catches a game, which translates to 68 if he plays all 17 games. The 65.5 receptions line by Las Vegas’s NFL odds is reasonable but still seems too high.

Receiving Yards

If 65.5 receptions are a bit high, 750.5 yards seems more reasonable. Samuel averages 13.3 yards per reception as a Niner. With 65 catches, this goes to 864.5 yards, which is well over the projected number. Even if he had a measly 2.2 average depth of target (ADOT), he still rolled 12.1 yards after catch per reception.This has some value on the over.

Best Pick: Over 750½ Receiving Yards (-115)

Brandon Aiyuk

Receptions

“Aiyuk is set to break out this year,” says practically every fantasy advice column out there. The sophomore is exciting the team and is projected to have a big year. It all depends upon if you’re buying into the hype or not. But 72.5 receptions equals 4.23 a game if he plays 17 games. That’s below the five per game he averaged last season.


We’re on the skeptical side as well since Aiyuk has plenty of competition, including Samuel and tight end George Kittle. Not to mention, there is an impending quarterback change that could cloud the status of Aiyuk and keep his totals down.

Receiving Yards

If you’re going in on Aiyuk, over 900.5 receiving yards is just a baseline. He certainly has the potential to crack 1,000 yards regardless of who’s at quarterback. Aiyuk has the best big-play potential even if his catch percentage is the worst of the main receiving options. But 900.5 breaks down to below his average last season so hammer the over if you feel the rising star.

Best Pick: Under 72½ Receiving Yards (-115)

George Kittle

Receiving Yards

Also returning from injury is star tight end, Kittle. The 2019 All-Pro has averaged 80.6 receiving yards per game with a 72.2 percent catch rate since 2018. That puts him in line to hit 1,370 receiving yards if he plays all 17 games. Of all the receiving options on the team, he’s the safest as he’s both strong and agile, making him capable in any field position.

Whether its Jimmy Garoppolo or rookie Trey Lance throwing the rock, Kittle should figure prominently in the offense. Assuming he plays around 15 to 16 games, he should break past his 1150.5 receiving yards.

Receiving Touchdowns

Scoring touchdowns hasn’t been a strength of Kittle, especially if you measure how many scoring catches he’s hauled in compared to his receiving yards. Kittle’s 14 career touchdowns pales in comparison to his 3,579 receiving yards. That’s 255.6 yards per one touchdown, which is pretty low by tight end standards.

A big reason for this would be the Niners’ penchant for running the ball in the red zone. Kittle has only been targeted a total of 52 times in the red zone in his career with a 57.7 percent catch rate. Only two of Garoppolo’s 18 red zone TDs were to Kittle so it’s tough to see him suddenly emerge in this department even with a modest expectation at 5.5.

Best Pick: Over 1150½ Receiving Yards (-115)

Nick Bosa

Sacks

You can bet on NFL brothers Joey and Nick Bosa to be among the NFL’s best at getting to the quarterback. Like his brother, Nick Bosa should generate plenty of sacks in his return. He only played in two games last season but got nine sacks in his rookie season so 8.5 is a baseline for him this year. Assuming he plays 15 to 17 games, clearing that shouldn’t be an issue.

Pick: Over 8½ Sacks (-125)

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