Will Change in Scenery Lead to Success?
We often hear a change of scenery is just what a player needs. Linebacker Roquan Smith is one recent success story. He unlocked a new level after being traded to the Baltimore Ravens, earning First-Team All-Pro honors in 2022. Smith could now be the best off-ball linebacker in the NFL.
Quarterback Derek Carr hopes to become the next success story. He struggled last season with the Las Vegas Raiders, eventually being benched. The Raiders released Carr in the offseason, and he signed a five-year, $125 million contract with the New Orleans Saints. Following the splash signing, the Saints are drawing interest in online NFL betting, with the sportsbook offering NFL specials for Carr’s stats in the 2023 season.
Will the Saints make a leap with Carr as starting QB?
Saints Look to Rule NFC South
Most NFL expert picks are predicting a turnaround for New Orleans. It makes perfect sense. The Saints underachieved last season, partially due to injuries. Still, they finished fifth in allowed yards per game and ninth in allowed points per game. The secondary was one of the best in the NFL, ranking second in surrendered passing yards per game.
The rushing defense was shaky, allowing 130.5 yards per game (24th). However, New Orleans made an effort to upgrade its defensive line, drafting Bryan Bresee and Isaiah Foskey in the first and second rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft. According to NFL lines, Bresee is +2800 to win Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Welcome to New Orleans @bryan_bresee! ⚜️
📺: 2023 #NFLDraft on NFLN/ESPN/ABC#SaintsDraft pic.twitter.com/ggg3ZRgfhe
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) April 28, 2023
On offense, the Saints added tight end Foster Moreau, who provided solid play as a backup with the Raiders last season. Wide receiver Chris Olave comes off an excellent rookie season with 1,042 receiving yards. Running back Alvin Kamara continues to provide exceptional play, with at least 1,300 scrimmage yards in six consecutive seasons. New Orleans also upgraded its backfield with the signing of Jamaal Williams and third-round rookie Kendre Miller. This depth could be crucial if Kamara misses games to start the season, stemming from his 2022 arrest for assault in Las Vegas.
The Saints have a solid roster capable of winning the NFC South. In fact, they are the favorite to win the division (+115). Some NFL predictions expect a double-digit win season, with New Orleans’ projected win total at 9½. The over sits at +110, creating an enticing bet.
Ultimately, Carr’s play will likely decide the Saints’ season. If he plays well, this could be a dangerous playoff team with one of the best defenses in the league. Remember, the NFC is weak, with the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers head and shoulders above the rest.
Carr Hoping for Turnaround Season
From 2019 to 2021, Carr was considered a borderline top-10 quarterback by many across the league. He had a career-high 4,804 passing yards in 2021-22. Last season, Carr had his worst campaign in years, finishing with his second-worst passer rating in his nine-season career (86.3).
Carr’s peaks are worth getting excited about. He finished third in MVP voting in the 2016 season and is a four-time Pro Bowler. The Saints have sorely missed this level of play since Drew Brees retired. Jameis Winston has not turned out, and an aging Andy Dalton was clearly not the answer last season.
“I came here for one reason, and that’s to win,” – Derek Carr#Saints pic.twitter.com/SviRCnKUZc
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) May 23, 2023
New Orleans has not made the playoffs since 2020-21 due to its hole at quarterback. It is not a guarantee that Carr will revamp his career. The 32-year-old could continue to struggle with his best days behind him. Not every quarterback is superhuman playing into their 40s (looking at you Tom Brady).
NFL odds have one available special for Carr ahead of the 2023 season:
Carr totaled over 4,000 passing yards in four consecutive seasons from 2018 to 2021. However, he was far below that mark last season (3,522 yards). Carr also joins a team that runs the ball more often. The Saints ranked 26th in pass attempts per game last season, compared to the Raiders finishing 13th in the category.
The additions of Williams and Miller prove New Orleans still intends to run often. It was 14th in carries per game in 2022-23. This was down, as the Saints were fourth in rushing attempts per game in the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons.
Carr should still be an upgrade for New Orleans, but tamper your expectations after his rough 2022 season. The under for 4,000½ passing yards (-120) is a favorable NFL picks. The Saints have plenty of questions in their receiving corps. Who knows if Michael Thomas will ever be healthy, putting the full burden on Olave. Plus, New Orleans had a bottom-tier offensive line last season.
The Saints will be led by a strong defense and run game, and Carr’s limited passing attempts should lead to under 4,000 passing yards.
