NFL Week 1 Props: Receivers to Bet, Receivers to Fade

With the Arizona Cardinals’ porous defense on deck, Dalton Kincaid looks poised for a breakout performance for the Buffalo Bills. Meanwhile, DeAndre Hopkins, still nursing an injury and facing a tough New Orleans defense, may struggle to hit his yardage prop.

Let’s break into why Kincaid is a play worth making and why Hopkins is a fade this week.

2 Wide Receivers to Bet and Fade in NFL Week 1

1. Bet: Dalton Kincaid 50+ Receiving Yards (-121)

If I were to rank the worst defenses in the NFL heading into opening weekend, the Arizona Cardinals would be at the top of the list. I read somewhere that they are considered the defense that upgraded the most in the draft, which, while maybe true, upgrading from basically nothing is not a tall task.

Now, if you are a stat geek like myself, you might have noticed that the Cardinals’ defense didn’t give up a lot of receiving yards last season. They weren’t great by any stretch of the imagination, but they ranked right around the middle and gave up fewer receiving yards than teams like the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams. This doesn’t mean that the Cardinals have an excellent secondary, but rather that teams just didn’t need to pass against them to run up the score.

Arizona struggled to stop the run, the worst mark the NFL had in that area, with a miserable 2,434 yards allowed. While that screams for an NFL pick in favor of James Cook, I think TE Dalton Kincaid will be the one to cook the Cardinals’ defense.

Only 31% of Dalton Kincaid’s preseason snaps have come as the in-line TE.

Things you love to see from the Year 2 tight end:
🌶️ slot work
🌶️ pre-snap motion
🌶️ downfield routes

Kincaid could be in for a huge sophomore season. You can watch his preseason routes here: pic.twitter.com/BwG36HOcSK

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 21, 2024

In my book, Kincaid is set for a breakout season, and I think it starts in Arizona on opening weekend. Kincaid averaged 42 yards per game in his rookie season, which isn’t great. But he was very hit-or-miss. He had five games with 65+ yards but three with 7 or fewer. While it may be more of the same in 2023, my money is on a bit debut for the big man.

I like Kinkaid’s yardage prop, but his anytime TD odds are far juicier. While the Cardinals allowed the seventh-fewest yards to tight ends in 2023, they coughed up the second most touchdowns, at 8. Only the Broncos were worse at keeping tight ends out of the end zone, with 10 touchdowns.

Kincaid’s NFL Week 1 prop odds are pegged at 51.5 receiving yards, and my money will be for him to go over.

Bet on Dalton Kincaid to get 52+ receiving yards vs Cardinals in Week 1

2. Bet: DeAndre Hopkins Under 47½ Receiving Yards (-121)

Betting on DeAndre Hopkins to go under 47.5 receiving yards in Week 1 against the Chicago Bears is backed by recent circumstances and statistical trends. Titans Offensive Coordinator Brian Callahan mentioned he’s “hopeful” that Hopkins will play, which typically signals a player won’t be at full strength. Hopkins has been sidelined from practice for weeks, raising concerns about his readiness and effectiveness on the field.

Adding to these concerns is that the Titans have brought in Calvin Ridley, who will likely become a primary target alongside Tyler Boyd. This could leave Hopkins as more of a decoy than a featured receiver. Given this scenario, it’s reasonable to expect fewer targets and fewer receiving yards for Hopkins.

The stats further bolster the argument for the under. Projections have the Titans as the 7th-least pass-oriented team this season, with a modest 59.0% pass rate. The Titans have struggled to generate high play volume and rank low among teams regarding plays per game in the NFL since 2022, averaging around 55.

Helpful age guide for your 2024 Fantasy Football draft! 👇🏻

Cooper Kupp, 31: too old
Davante Adams, 32: not too old
DeAndre Hopkins, 32: too old
Stefon Diggs, 30: slightly too old
CMC, 28: perfectly safe
Alvin Kamara, 29: wayyy too old
Derrick Henry, 30: a little too old

— Fantasy Gazette (@FantasyGazette_) August 31, 2024

Another critical factor is the Titans’ offensive line, which has ranked near the bottom of the league in pass protection last year. This poor protection directly impacts passing efficiency, making it even harder for Hopkins to accumulate significant yardage.

Given all these factors—the uncertainty around Hopkins’ health, the presence of other receiving options, the Titans’ low play volume, poor offensive line, and a tough opposing defense—the under on 47.5 receiving yards seems like a strong play. Considering the circumstances, this bet online could even be comfortably taken down to 45.5 yards.

Bet on DeAndre Hopkins under 47½ receiving yards vs Titans in Week 1

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets

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