NFL Week 1 QB Props: Back Stafford, Fade Rodgers
- Aaron Rodgers is coming off a season that was over quicker than it takes to microwave a bag of popcorn.
- Rodgers is up against a 49ers defense that allowed just 6.4 yards per attempt last season.
- Rams QB Matthew Stafford is up against the Lions, who ranked near the bottom of the NFL in passing defense last season.
Week 1 of the NFL season is here, and with it comes the challenge of identifying which quarterbacks are set to thrive and which ones might struggle.
Two intriguing NFL picks this week are Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams and Aaron Rodgers of the New York Jets. Each faces vastly different matchups that could significantly impact their performance.
Top 2 NFL QB Prop Picks for Week 1
1. Play: Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams)
Matthew Stafford might not be the first name that comes to mind for a Week 1 NFL bet, especially after a lackluster season. Still, this matchup against the Detroit Lions presents an excellent opportunity. Despite Stafford’s average performance last year, the Los Angeles Rams offense is in a great spot to start the season strong.
Although the Detroit defense is expected to do better than its 23rd ranking in points allowed last season, it has vulnerabilities, particularly in a game projected to be the highest-scoring of the week, with a total of 51 points.
In 2023, Detroit allowed the sixth-worst stats per game to quarterbacks. Stafford has already proven he can take advantage of this defense, as evidenced by his 367-yard, two-touchdown performance in their last playoff meeting.
This angle of Matthew Stafford’s no-look pass. 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/vwWRUsMekn
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) February 14, 2022
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This week, the Rams are expected to adopt a pass-heavy approach, which, if projections are correct, will make them one of the most pass-centric offenses. Additionally, the game is set to be played in a dome, ensuring ideal passing conditions with no wind interference.
With the Rams running the seventh-most plays in the league last year, averaging 60.1 plays per game, Stafford will have ample opportunities to rack up passing yards.
All these factors — Detroit’s defensive struggles, the high-scoring projection, the Rams’ pass-heavy game plan and the favorable dome conditions — make Stafford a strong candidate to exceed his passing yardage and cash NFL bets in Week 1.
Bet on Stafford Passing Yards Leader
2. Fade: Aaron Rodgers (New York Jets)
Aaron Rodgers enters the 2024 season with a daunting task: facing a tough San Francisco 49ers defense after tearing his Achilles just four snaps into last season.
The New York Jets are projected to run just 62.4 plays in this game, one of the lowest totals for the week, which doesn’t bode well for Rodgers’ passing yardage. Additionally, the Jets’ offensive line ranked second-worst in protecting the passer in 2023, which will further challenge Rodgers against a defense that allowed only 6.9 adjusted yards per target, the fourth-lowest in the NFL.
San Francisco’s linebacker corps, among the best in the league, will make it even tougher for Rodgers to find open receivers.
I love that we’re tempting fate again, putting Aaron Rodgers return to the Jets on MNF week 1. pic.twitter.com/92gqsovrFY
— ThatsGoodSports (@BrandonPerna) August 29, 2024
The 49ers allowed just 6.4 yards per attempt in 2023, ranking fifth in the league. Plus, they were stingy in the red zone, surrendering only 20 passing touchdowns while tying for the most interceptions with 22.
Given these factors — the 49ers’ strong pass defense, the Jets’ low play volume and the offensive line struggles — Rodgers is a risky option in this matchup. The Under on his passing yardage total is a compelling bet online.
Bet on Aaron Rodgers O/U Passing Yards
Questions of the Day
Which game has the highest projected Week 1 betting total?
The Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions have the highest Week 1 total at 51 points.
