Thanksgiving Week of the NFL officially concludes with Monday Night Football between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts.
The festive week began with a tripleheader on Thursday that saw all three favorites crack the win column but go 1-2-0 against the spread. At the same time, the over cashed in two of the three games.
All in all, including Sunday’s 12-game slate, the favorites had a strong showing altogether going 11-4-0 straight up (SU) and 8-7-0 ATS. Home favorites went 8-6-0 SU and 7-8-0 ATS while the Under edged the Over in eight of the 15 games (8-7-0).
Let’s check the latest NFL picks, stats, injury reports, and NFL predictions. We’ve plenty of NFL expert picks for you to consider.
NFL Week 12 Betting Highlights
- The Kansa City Chiefs (-15½) were the biggest home favorites to cover in a 26-10 win over the Los Angeles Rams,
- The Miami Dolphins (-14½) were the second-biggest home favorites to cover in a 30-15 win over the Houston Texans.
- The Detroit Lions (+10) were the biggest home underdogs to cover in a 28-25 loss to the Buffalo Bills
- The New York Giants (+10) were the biggest road underdogs to cover in a 28-20 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
- The Las Vegas Raiders (+4) were the biggest road underdogs to deliver the outright upset in a 40-33 overtime win against the Seattle Seahawks
- The Cleveland Browns (+3½) were the biggest home underdogs to deliver the outright upset in a 23-17 overtime win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Scoop on Free Play from the Locker Room
Late TD Earns Giants Backdoor Cover
The New York Giants (+10) scored late in the 28-20 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, thus denying Cowboys side bettors the cover and a few extra dollars in their pockets on Thanksgiving Day.
The Cowboys, up 28-13 late in the fourth quarter, had the chance to pad the score with a field goal. Alas, kicker Brett Maher missed the field goal and in hindsight it proved to be a critical miss for Dallas’ backers. The Giants went on to capitalize on their next possession as Daniel Jones led them on a scoring drive that saw them close the gap on the scoreboard to eight points with a touchdown.
Jaguars Upset Ravens
Arguably, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ stunning come-from-behind win over the Baltimore Ravens (-3) tops the week’s bad beat charts. That is, for Ravens’ backers in particular, who looked to be in good position to score both with the win and cover when Lamar Jackson put his side up 27-20 with two minutes left on the clock.
✌️ POINTER TO PUT THE @Jaguars ON TOP
via @NFLpic.twitter.com/Kq8u1VWmEW
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 27, 2022
Thanks to golden boy Trevor Lawrence, however, Ravens bettors were robbed entirely – both SU and ATS. Lawrence led the Jags on a stunning, last-gasp drive and then a gutlsy two-point conversion to lift the Jaguars to the 28-27 lead with 14 seconds left on the clock.
With less than 15 seconds left, the Ravens didn’t have a lot of time to work with. Jackson, to his credit, did manage to set up kicker Justin Tucker for a Hail Mary, 67-yard field goal attempt. Tucker’s previous record was 66 yards. To his credit, Tucker very nearly set a new record … only to miss by a sliver.
Justin Tucker attempted a 67-yard game-winning field goal.
It was short.
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/bkjgQoZWJ6
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 27, 2022
White Carries Jets Over the Line
The Chicago Bears and New York Jets went into Week 12 with quarterback question marks that made handicapping this game a bit of a nightmare. The line for this game opened around Jets -4. Then it jumped out to Jets -6 midweek before jumping out to a whopping Jets -9.
No matter what line New York side bettors backed, the Jets had it covered in the comfortable 31-10 win. So, where is the bad beat, you might be wondering? Well, it was against the total. The game closed on 36½ points in total betting markets – one of the lowest totals of the week. That was in part down to the assumption that the quarterbacking would suffer with both teams fielding backups. It was also a bit of a homage to the Jets defense.
All told, with the Jets trailing 10-7, they embarked on a scoring spree and put up 24 unanswered points that pushed this game over the closing 36½ point total before the end of the third quarter.
Texans Close Gap but Fail to Cover
Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins were up on the Houston Texans by multiple scores in the blink of an eye. By the third quarter, the Dolphins (-14½) had the 30-0 lead and looked to be in full control of the game. Then, they switched quarterbacks – swapping out Tagovailoa for Skyler Thompson – and Miami side bettors were left sweating as the Texans steadily closed the gap to 15 points.
All told, the game ended with the Dolphins winning 30-15, just squeaking through with the cover. In the end, Texans side bettors were left wanting – needing just one point to cover as the +14½ road underdogs.
Benching Tagovailoa dried up Miami’s offense entirely and that had an impact ultimately on the total. Especially for those that had backed the Over 47. Despite Houston’s best efforts, Under bettors cashed in the end, while over bettors, desperately needing at least a field goal to push the total over, were left wanting.
Browns Upset Buccaneers in OT
In Jacoby Brissett’s (likely) final start for the Cleveland Browns, he fulfilled one of his dreams: to beat Tom Brady. The Browns (+3½) proved to be the biggest home underdogs to deliver the upset when all was said and done.
That was great news for Cleveland’s backers, but not for Tampa Bay’s. Going into the final seconds of the game, the Buccaneers were up 17-10 and looking great to cash on the moneyline and point spread. Then, the unthinkable happened. Brissett connected with David Nioku for the game-tying touchdown with 0:32 left on the clock. A one-handed TD catch, no less
you already knew the radio call was going to be chill-inducing 🎙️🔥
📱: NFL+ https://t.co/kU5RJsN4L5 pic.twitter.com/vEMCxeCS76
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) November 28, 2022
In overtime, Tom Brady and Co. got the first crack but failed to put the Browns away. The Browns didn’t fail on their turn and punched it home for the exhilarating upset across the board.
Chargers Steal Win in Arizona
Los Angeles Chargers’ backers were sweating throughout the game as Justin Herbert and Co. found themselves down 24-17 in the final minutes of the game. But in the final seconds, Herbert led an inspired drive for a touchdown and two-point conversion that lifted the Chargers to the 25-24 win over the Arizona Cardinals.
FOR THE DUB. pic.twitter.com/gjLoqCTkMC
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) November 28, 2022
The outcome was mixed for bettors. Arizona bettors weren’t total losers. Kyler Murray and Co. were in the driver’s seat, and so too their backers, who were merely seconds away from cashing in on Arizona for the outright upset. Tale told, the Cardinals lost, but side bettors cashed – small consolation though it might be.
