It’s the end of the road. The final week of the NFL regular season is done and dusted and the playoff picture is decided.
By the stats: The favorites went 11-5-0 straight-up (SU) and 9-7-0 against the spread (ATS). Home favorites went 9-7-0 SU and just 7-9-0 ATS while the under went 10-6-0 in total betting.
Below, we dive into Week 18, spotlighting the bad beats and backdoor covers that shaped key outcomes at the sportsbook betting exchange.
Basically, the good, the bad and ugly of the weekend’s action and how impacted NFL picks against the spread, straight up and in totals.
Let’s check the latest NFL picks, stats, injury reports, and NFL predictions. We’ve plenty of NFL expert picks for you to consider.
Week 18 NFL Betting Highlights
- The San Francisco 49ers (-14½) were the biggest home favorites to win and cover in a 38-13 win over the Arizona Cardinals.
- The Washington Commanders (+7½) were the biggest home underdogs to win and cover in a 26-6 win over the Dallas Cowboys.
- The New York Giants (+16½) were the biggest road underdogs to cover in a 22-16 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Texans vs Colts
- Closing line: Texans +3 (-110).
- Closing total O/U 37½
- Final Score: 32-31
Talk about a bad beat on multiple levels. Davis Mills heaved a Hail Mary on fourth-and-20 for a last-gasp touchdown that lifted the Texans to the 32-31 win and left Indianapolis Colts bettors cheated from what looked like an almost certain win and cover.
On another level, though, Houston Texans bettors cashed in with their bets, the organization itself lost out to the Chicago Bears in the bid for the No. 1 draft pick in 2023. [Great Job!!]
The Texans were trailing 31-24 when Mills’ Hail Mary pass was caught by Jordan Atkins to bring the Texans within one point. However, instead of kicking the extra point and sending the game into overtime, Lovie Smith dialed up a two-point conversion play for the win. [True story!].
TWO-POINT CONVERSION IS GOOD. The Texans take the lead with 50 seconds left!
📺: #HOUvsIND on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/6GfQl62RJ4 pic.twitter.com/SJ5c50zmJW— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2023
Jets vs Dolphins
- Closing line: Dolphins -4 (-110)
- Closing total O/U 37
- Final Score: 11-6
Can the Jets get anything right? Not only did their campaign implode down the stretch, but they couldn’t get it done as the spoilers in Week 18 NFL betting, all while closing as the -4-point favorites on the road at BetUS sportsbook exchange. What could go wrong?
The Jets and Dolphins were tied 6-6 for a better part of the game until the Dolphins kicked a 50-yard field goal to take the 9-6 lead with less than 20 seconds to go. With time winding down fast, the Jets opted for a passing sequence on third down with five seconds to go that … well … went horribly wrong.
How else are we to describe a lateral pass that resulted in a safety?
Jets +3.5 BRUTALLLLLL
— Barstool Sportsbook (@BSSportsbook) January 8, 2023
Talk about a bad beat. Jets side betters were five seconds away from cashing as the 4-point road underdogs, only for the Dolphins to get two points with the safety and cover as the 4-point home favorites.
Rams vs Seahawks
- Closing line: Seahawks -4½ (-110)
- Closing total O/U 42½
- Final Score: 19-16 OT
Seattle’s slim playoff hopes rested on a win and a Green Bay Packers loss. Somehow, against all the odds, that’s exactly what happened, albeit to the detriment of Los Angeles Rams’ backers who were up more often than not and had plenty of chances to win the slugfest at Lumen Field.
Going into the fourth quarter, the Rams were up 16-13 thanks to a Matt Gay field goal. Seattle’s next drive ended in a Geno Smith interception, but Baker Mayfield failed to convert on that gift. He couldn’t even get the Rams into field goal range against the suddenly stout Seattle defense.
The Rams’ defense saved the day late in the fourth quarter when it stepped up in the final minutes of the game, stuffing the Seahawks at the goal line as they attempted to run for a score. Seattle was forced to settle on a field goal instead. Jason Meyers tied it up 16-16 from the 22-yard line.
Stuffed. pic.twitter.com/i8aNH9O8jN
— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) January 9, 2023
In the final two minutes, the Rams went three-and-out and punted the ball back to the Seahawks for one last attempt in regulation time. Smith and Co. marched down field and got into field goal range, albeit with some help from Jalen Ramsey, who was called for a roughness penalty.
With the game on the line, time clicking away, Myers 46-field goal attempt hit the upright with a doink that echoed around the stadium. Rams backers breathed a sigh of relief.
Then, the Seahawks went three-and-out in overtime. Mayfield got the ball back on Los Angeles’ 27 with a chance to deliver the win and eliminate the Seahawks from the playoffs. Mayfield’s first pass was a botched hand off that set the Rams back five yards. His next was an … INTERCEPTION!
Smith and the Seahawks’ second drive in overtime sealed the deal. They marched down field to set up Myers for the 32-yard field goal attempt and this time the kicker threaded the needle for the hard fought win. And just like that, Rams side bettors were left wanting.
On another level, the win turned out to be a bad beat for the Detroit Lions, who needed a Seattle loss to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
