Another weekend of NFL action is behind us. Just Monday Night Football is left before we can put a bow on Week 3 NFL betting. However, with 15 of 16 games already in the books, certain trends have been recognized and we highlight these in our recap of the action below.
To begin with, the favorites went 7-8-0 straight up (SU) and 6-9-0 against the spread (ATS). Home teams went 8-7-0 SU and 7-8-0 ATS while the Under ruled the totals again, cashing in nine of 15 games.
Let’s sort through the games and highlight some of the worst of the bad beats and backdoor covers that shaped key outcomes at the sportsbook betting exchange. Basically, the good, the bad and ugly of Week 3 NFL picks against the spread.
NFL Week 3 Betting Highlights
- Dolphins, Colts, Panthers and Jaguars pull off upsets
- Bengals, Colts, Falcons and Titans clinch first wins
- Bills, Chiefs and Bucs suffer first losses
- Browns, Bears, Vikings bounce back
- Raiders Take Third Loss
Bad Beats: Colts Upset Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs backers were on tenterhooks with the Chiefs leading 17-13 midway through the fourth quarter. With the game winding down, an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty would give the Colts a fresh set of downs that Matt Ryan and Co. made the Chiefs pay for – and, in turn, Chiefs backers, too.
Ryan connected with Jelani Woods for the 12-yard touchdown pass with 24 seconds to go to give the Colts the 20-17 lead. Patrocl Mahomes to his credit responded. He moved the chains and got the Chiefs to the Colts’ 46 with eight seconds to go, but … then … he threw an interception on the final play.
Just like that, the Colts won their first game of the season, pulling off the straight-up upset and cover at Lucas Oil Stadium to the delight of their fans.
The Colts closed as the +4½ home underdogs, making them the second-biggest underdogs after the Jaguars (6½) to deliver the outright upset in Week 3.
JELANI WOODS AGAIN FOR THE LEAD!
— NFL (@NFL) September 25, 2022
Bad Beats: Dolphins Upset Bills
The markets closed with the Bills as the four-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins, but when all was said and done, the Dolphins delivered the 21-19 upset in a back-and-forth affair at Hard Rock Stadium. Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey’s meltdown said it all.
The Bills were trailing 21-19 in the final seconds of the game Josh Allen drove the Bills down the field and although he got them to within field-goal range, time ran out before they could spike the ball and set up for the attempt.
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) September 25, 2022
The Dolphins closed at -4, making them the third biggest underdog to clinch the win and cover in Week 3 after the Colts and Jaguars.
Bad Beats: Lions Blow the DUB
Dan Campbell’s Detroit Lions were within minutes of pulling off the upset win in Minnesota, but a late-game decision backfired spectacularly and led to a late-game collapse, denying Lions backers both the upset win and cover.
The Lions were up 24-22 in the final minutes of the game. Instead of going for it on a fourth down to extend the drive of punting the ball deep, Campbell opted to go for the long-range field goal. Alas, the gamble didn’t pay off as the kicker missed. Worse yet, the Vikings got the short-field advantage with 1:10 left on the clock, albeit with no time outs.
In the end, the Vikings didn’t need all that time. They needed only 25 seconds of it to get the go-ahead score. Kirk Cousins connected with wide receiver K.J. Osborn on back-to-back throws to give the Vikings the 28-24 lead.
As it is, the Lions covered as the +6½ closing underdogs in the defeat. They improved to a league-leading 3-0-0 ATS on the season, along with the Dolphins and Falcons.
Over bettors were also beneficiaries of the Vikings’ late game-winning touchdown as it pushed the score over the 51½-point closing total.
Bad Beats: Texans Blow the Dub
Lovie Smith’s homecoming got off to a positive start with the Houston Texans holding their own against the Chicago Bears. After going down 10-0 the Texans rallied back into the game and took the 14-10 lead into halftime.
Early in the second half, the Texans went up 17-13 and seemed to be on the way to pulling off the upset on the road. But the Bears rallied and with the game delicately poised 20-20 in the fourth quarter, an untimely Davis Mills interception set up the Bears for the game-winning field goal.
Bad Beats: Buccaneers Late Rally Falls Short
The Green Bay Packers were leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the better part of the game before Tom Brady and Co. rallied late to close the gap on the scoreboard. The Bucs were attempting a two-point conversion to tie the game after a late touchdown closed the gap on the scoreboard to 14-12. But a delay-of-game penalty thwarted their two-point conversion attempt. Then the Packers recovered the ensuing onside kick to finish off the upset at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay.
The Packers held on to deliver the outright upset as the +1 road underdogs. The final score fell spectacularly under the closing total of 42 points. It was the lowest-scoring game of the day, until the snooze-fest that was Sunday Night Football between the Broncos and Niners.
After the game, Aaron Rodgers implied that he saw something on the Buccaneers Jumbotron that might have given the Packers an edge pic.twitter.com/f2uCVyOqf9
— Barstool Sportsbook (@BSSportsbook) September 25, 2022
Bad Beats: Niners Blow DUB
The Broncos and Niners delivered one of the worst games of Week 3. Offense was almost non-existent as both defenses did their parts to make quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo uncomfortable each time they took to the field. Somehow, Wilson’s late game heroics and a self-inflicted safety helped the Broncos rally from 7-3 down to win 11-10.