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Pro Football Betting: 10 Takeaways from Wild Card Weekend

In many ways, things went according to plan as the NFL playoffs kicked off. The home team won five of the six games played over the three-day holiday weekend. The thought was that Dallas was the most susceptible of the division winners and, sure enough, the Cowboys stumbled and bumbled their way to another early playoff exit.

Young stars like San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel and Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase weren’t impacted by the bright lights while veteran Matthew Stafford finally picked up his first career playoff win.

NFL Wild Card Action, Odds, Picks & Predictions 2022
HARRY HOW / GETTY IMAGES VIA AFP

There were also some lucrative prop bets among the NFL betting lines. San Francisco 49ers rookie running back Eli Mitchell was +650 to score the first touchdown in the game against Dallas, while tight end Dawson Knox of Buffalo went off at +1200 to score the first TD in the Bills-Patriots game. Knox was also +1400 to be a multiple-touchdown scorer while the Bills winning by 30 points had a moneyline of +1600.

Green Bay (+350) enters the division round with the best odds to win the Super Bowl while No. 1 seed Tennessee (+850) has just the third-best odds among AFC teams to win the title.

Super Start for Title Contenders

The only time the same two teams played in back-to-back Super Bowls came when the Dallas Cowboys defeated the Buffalo Bills to win the NFL title after the 1992 and 1993 seasons.

After crossing paths in last year’s Super Bowl, the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers and two-time reigning AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs played like they wanted to change that.

Tampa Bay was up first and the Buccaneers cruised to a 31-15 win over Philadelphia. Seven-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback Tom Brady threw a pair of touchdowns to give the Buccaneers a 31-0 lead before Tampa Bay went into cruise control. It didn’t hurt that the Tampa Bay defense is as healthy as it has been with Lavonte David and Shaq Barrett among the returning players who made significant contributions.

Patrick Mahomes lit up the Pittsburgh Steelers for 404 yards and five touchdowns as the Chiefs rolled to a 42-21 win. How dominant were the Chiefs? Pittsburgh didn’t run its first play in Kansas City territory until 6:35 remained in the third quarter.

Things will be more challenging this week with Buffalo playing at Kansas City and the Los Angeles Rams traveling to meet Tampa Bay.

Kansas City is favored by 2½ according to the NFL picks against the spread.

Buffalo Turns Tables on New England

The script seemed eerily familiar. Rely on a sure-handed tight end for some offense and let a quarterback carve up an overmatched opponent. That is what New England Patriots did for years when Brady was the quarterback and Bill Belichick the head coach of the mighty Patriots.

While Brady is gone, Belichick was on the wrong end of a postseason beatdown as AFC East rival Buffalo overwhelmed New England. Was it the most surprising result of the Wild Card round? That is debatable but it certainly was not high up on the list of matchups likely to turn into a blowout among those who bet online.

Quarterback Josh Allen deservedly received much of the credit. He was 21 of 25 passing for 308 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions to go with 66 rushing yards. However, this was all about the play upfront.

Not only did New England not sack Allen, the Patriots rarely got close to him. Allen was given time for deep crossing routes to come open and he was able to look for the second, third and sometimes even fourth progression. There were times it looked like Buffalo was running a no-contact, 7-on-7 passing drill rather than facing a heated rival in the playoffs.

The highlight-reel interception by Micah Hyde deserves mention as well as Buffalo cruised to a 47-17 victory, the largest margin of victory in the six games just played.

Knox and running back Devin Singletary each had two touchdowns thanks in large part to the dominant play by the offensive line.

Cincinnati Tastes Postseason Success

The date was Jan. 6, 1991, when Boomer Esiason passed for two touchdowns and ran for another as the Cincinnati Bengals defeated the Houston Oilers 41-14. That was the last time Cincinnati won a postseason game until Saturday.

The Bengals had lost eight consecutive playoff games and also had a long stretch between postseason appearances.

Below are some of the circumstances that will hang over the result of Cincinnati’s 26-19 win over Las Vegas, but the late Raiders owner Al Davis was famous for his “Just win, baby” saying and that is what the Bengals did.

Cincinnati was outgained in the game but found a way to pick up its first victory in the playoffs in more than 30 years.

Former college teammates Joe Burrow and Chase, the Bengals’ top picks in the last two NFL drafts, teamed up nine times for 116 yards and the Cincinnati defense held Las Vegas to one touchdown in five trips to the red zone. That set up a game at top-seeded Tennessee on Saturday. Proving that irony can be pretty ironic at times, the Tennessee franchise used to be the Houston Oilers before relocating to Nashville.

Burrow was one of five starting quarterbacks in the Wild Card round who was making his postseason debut and the only one who led his team to victory. New England’s Mac Jones, Arizona’s Kyler Murray, Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts and Derek Carr of the Raiders combined to complete 56 percent of their passes with four touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Burrow finished at 70 percent (24 of 34) with two TDs and no interceptions.

Defense Proves to be Ram Tough

The headlines were dominated by Matthew Stafford setting an NFL record for most regular-season games played (186) by a quarterback before picking up his first playoff win but, in reality, the Rams’ 34-11 victory over Arizona was all about the defense.

The Cardinals were 0 of 9 on third downs, made one trip to the red zone and managed just 183 yards of total offense.

Linebacker Von Miller, one of Los Angeles’ midseason acquisitions, had three tackles for loss, including a sack to lead the defensive charge.

The Cardinals punted on their first four possessions and then somehow it got worse with a horrific decision by Murray resulting in the shortest defensive touchdown in NFL playoff history. That was followed by another interception.

It was 28-0 before the Cardinals finally scored with 4:11 left in the third quarter.

Dallas Wilts … Again

There was a time when the Dallas Cowboys were always among the last teams standing in the NFL postseason. The Cowboys won 19 playoffs games and reached the Super Bowl five times From 1970-82. After some tough times, the “How ’bout them Cowboys” refrain could be heard once again when Dallas won 11 of 13 playoff games, including three Super Bowls, from 1991-95.

Since that time, Dallas seems to find ways to author early postseason exits.

Beginning with a 26-17 loss to Carolina, when Dallas was listed by the Las Vegas odds as a three-point favorite on the road, the Cowboys 3-5 in their last eight playoffs when listed as the favorite.

Dallas was the only division winner to lose as the playoffs got underway. The Cowboys can blame nobody but themselves as 14 penalties including seven pre-snap penalties, proved to be too much to overcome.

Obviously, the game’s final play will be talked about for years. With 14 seconds left and no timeouts, Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott took off on a designed run. After sliding down, he gave to ball to his center instead of the umpire, who needs to set the ball for play to resume. By the time that happened, time had expired and San Francisco had the 23-17 victory.

The play was bizarre on so many levels. If Dallas needed a field goal to tie or win the game, it is completely understandable what the Cowboys were thinking as there is a big difference between a 58-yard field goal and one from 41 yards. However, Prescott has plenty of arm strength to get a throw to the end zone from the San Francisco 41. Is the likelihood of a game-winning TD throw that much higher from the 24 than at the 41? Prescott could have had two shots at the end zone, and perhaps a defensive penalty could have aided in the Cowboys’ effort to steal a win.

Another issue was that San Francisco got its best offensive player (Deebo Samuel) 13 touches in the game while the Dallas receiving tandem of Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb finished with seven touches. Dallas decided that No. 3 wideout Cedric Wilson deserved twice as many targets in the passing game as Lamb.

Officially, There Were Issues

The hope every season is that the games are decided by the two teams although there are times when the officials get more attention than they would prefer.

That was never more evident than in the Cincinnati Bengals-Las Vegas Raiders game. Just before Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow’s pass landed in the hands of Tyler Boyd in the end zone, a whistle was blown, with an official thinking that Burrow had stepped out of bounds. By rule, the play should have been wiped out and the third-down play run again. Instead, the call stood. It was the final touchdown scored in the game and with Cincinnati winning by seven, the play generated tons of reaction.

While the right thing would have been to rule it as a no play, it should be noted that there was 1:51 left in the second quarter at the time of the disputed play. Also, Cincinnati was in field goal range so almost certainly the Bengals would have come out of the drive with points.

It was not the only play called into question by referee Jerome Boger and his crew. A completed pass by Cincinnati was wiped out when the Raiders were awarded a timeout. Defensive back Casey Hayward could definitely be seen signaling for the timeout, but the fact that the officials allowed the play to continue before coming back and saying there was no play was not a good look. There was also a questionable roughing-the-passer call when two facemasks might have grazed each other.

There are reports that the crew for the Bengals-Raiders game won’t officiate again in this year’s playoffs.

Don’t Be Like Mike

The decision to have quarterback Dak Prescott take off on a designed run with 14 seconds left and no timeouts might be the play call for which Dallas Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy is getting the most heat. However, it could be argued that it wasn’t the call that had people scratching their heads the most.

With Dallas in a world of trouble, the decision to have Cowboys punter Bryan Anger throw for a first down was certainly the right call at the perfect time. However, the Cowboys kept their punting unit on the field and lined up Anger in the slot. Finally, with the play clock ticking away, the offense came onto the field. Unfortunately for Dallas, by rule, the officials have to allow the defense to substitute when the offense makes personnel changes. The result of this bizarre decision was a delay-of-game penalty for Dallas. The Cowboys did manage to get a field goal out of the drive, but could it have resulted in more had the Cowboys not faced an unnecessary first-and-15 situation?

Getting Their Kicks

Not everything was clicking as the playoffs got underway, but there are few complaints about the way the squads were kicking.

The kickers were a combined 17 for 17 on field goals in the six games. It started right away as Daniel Carlson of the Las Vegas Raiders and Evan McPherson of the Cincinnati Bengals each went 4 for 4 on field goals in the opening game of the playoffs. San Francisco’s Robbie Gould was 3 for 3 while Nick Folk of New England, Matt Gay of the Los Angeles Rams, Greg Zuerlein of Dallas, Matt Prater of Arizona and Tampa Bay’s Ryan Succop also connected on their kicks. These were not simply chip shots. Prater had a 55-yard boot while Gould (53) and Zuerlein (51) also were good from beyond 50 yards.

There were some missed extra points mixed in there and the field goal number should have been 18, but in a three-game stretch of some, shall we say, interesting calls by the coaches, Tampa Bay turned down an easy field goal to make it a three-possession game with 1:16 left to play. That gave Philadelphia given an opening but the Eagles couldn’t capitalize.

Titans, Packers Happy to be Idle

Cincinnati lost defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi to a season-ending injury, Tampa Bay Buccaneers All-Pro offensive linemen were  injured and San Francisco defensive stalwarts Nick Bosa and Fred Warner were also forced to the sidelines.

The was a difficult aspect of the first week of the NFL postseason, and those injuries only heightened the importance to earn the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.

Tennessee is the top seed in the AFC and the extra week could prove beneficial for running back Derrick Henry, who was the NFL’s leading rusher and an MVP candidate when he went down with a foot injury midway through the season. He is expected to be back, although it is not certain what his role will be. Cam Akers ran for 55 yards and had a 40-yard reception for the Rams, which wasn’t bad for a player who was thought to be done for the season after tearing his Achilles. Will Henry get a similar workload? It is quite possible.

For Green Bay, it was another week for MVP front-runner Aaron Rodgers to get his injured toe healthier. There will be some rust for both teams to deal with but considering the other option, few complaints will be heard from the camps of the Titans and Packers.

End of an Era

Ben Roethlisberger never came out and said that this was his final season but he didn’t need to. When he walked off the field following Pittsburgh’s 42-21 loss to Kansas City, the Steelers could turn their focus to finding a new starting quarterback for the first time in almost 20 years.

It wasn’t a season to remember for Roethlisberger, nor was it the best playoff performance in his illustrious career. Roethlisberger did throw a pair of touchdowns but the first didn’t come until Kansas City was ahead 35-7. He will retire as a two-time Super Bowl champion and fifth in NFL history in career passing yards.

Speaking of numbers, the first three quarterbacks selected in the 2004 NFL Draft all rank in the top nine in career passing yards as Philip Rivers is sixth and Eli Manning ninth.

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