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Patrick Mahomes vs Tom Brady Best Betting Trends

The Kid vs The GOAT

The Kid vs The GOAT

Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady will go head to head for what could be their last meeting when the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers kick off Sunday Night Football on NBC in Week 4.

From its inception, their head-to-head was dubbed as “The Kid vs The GOAT” and it surpassed all imaginable expectations. Mahomes and Brady are not only the best quarterbacks in the league, but they’re transcendent. They’re popular, widely respected, and loved by fans across the country.

Mahomes vs Brady Betting Trends
Michael Hickey/Getty Images/AFP

So, who will triumph this time around?

We break down this intriguing rivalry and highlight some of the key NFL betting trends between Mahomes and Brady below for your consideration. Let’s get to it and check the NFL picks and NFL predictions!


Brady Leads H2H series 3-2

Mahomes and Brady have crossed paths five times in their careers. In their first meeting in 2018, when Mahomes was making his debut as a starter for the Chiefs, Brady led the Patriots to victory in an 83-point thriller. The Patriots defeated the Chiefs 43-40 at Foxborough.

The second faceoff came a year later in which the Patriots beat the Chiefs 37-31 in overtime in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium.

It wasn’t until the third meeting that the Chiefs finally got into the win column over Brady and the Patriots. Mahomes led the Chiefs to the 23-16 win over the Patriots in Gillette Stadium.

In 2020, Mahomes evened the score with Brady, who was making his debut with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Chiefs beat the Bucs 27-24 at Arrowhead Stadium.

However, later that same season, Brady got the measure of Mahomes and the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV as he led the Buccaneers to the 31-9 victory – in arguably the most important meeting between the pair.

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Mahomes After A Loss

Mahomes’ record following a loss is an enviable 10-3-0 SU and the Chiefs are 12-3-0 SU and 8-7-0 ATS following a loss since 2018.

The Chiefs aren’t often tipped as the betting online underdogs. Since 2018, the Chiefs closed as underdogs nine times and they boast a 5-4-0 SU and a 6-2-1 ATS record. As an away underdog, the Chiefs are 4-2-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS.

Brady After a Loss

Brady’s record following a loss is quite impressive. To begin with, Brady’s teams aren’t often found trading as an underdog following a loss. For instance, the Buccaneers never once closed as an underdog in 2021.

Since 2020, the Buccaneers are 4-2-0 SU and 5-1-0 ATS as an underdog and 2-1-0 SU and 3-0-0 ATS as a home underdog, the latter of which includes a 15.7 winning margin on average. Brady himself is a perfect 10-0-0 ATS following a loss.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Betting

Going into this Week 4 clash, both the Chiefs and Buccaneers will be looking to bounce back after disappointing losses. This game is nestled on a coy PK line at the sportsbook as we look at the latest NFL odds, down from an opening line of Chiefs -2 point. The total in the meanwhile opened on a projected 45½ points and it appears to have held firm.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Odds

  • Spread: Chiefs PK (-110) | Buccaneers PK (-110)
  • Moneyline: Chiefs OTB | Buccaneers OTB
  • Over/Under: O 45½ (-110) | U45½ (-110)

Bettors have tempered this market and bet it down to a PK line. That and Hurricane Ian, which wreaked havoc on Florida this week, likely moved the lines, too.

The Bucs have scored one touchdown in each of their first three games while the defense has been quite impressive allowing opponents to score just 3, 10, and 14 points (respectively) over this period, respectively. Brady has 673 passing yards, three touchdowns, and one interception.

The Chiefs have been more explosive with a 29.3 ppg average through the month of September. However, that number is skewed heavily by the 44-21 win over the Cardinals in Week 1. In Week 2, the Chiefs put up 27 points and then 17 points in Week 3. Mahomes has 857 passing yards, eight touchdowns (five of which came in Week 1), and one interception.

Don’t forget to stay tuned to BetUS Sportsbook & Casino and take a look at the NFL expert picks!

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