Phoenix Suns
AFC Wild-Card Opening Odds Report: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
The last time the New England Patriots traveled to play division rival Buffalo, the real winner was Mother Nature. Heavy — and we do mean heavy — winds made it rather difficult to throw the ball when the teams were going against the wind.
Visiting New England didn’t even try — as rookie quarterback Mac Jones had one passing attempt in the first half and three in the game. New England’s lone touchdown came on a 64-yard Damien Harris run, but it was enough to escape with the 14-10 win.
New England has dominated the series in recent years, winning 15 of 17 games before the Bills swept the season series in 2020 en route to winning the AFC East title for the first time since 1995. Buffalo won its last four, including a 33-21 victory over the Patriots, to clinch its second straight division crown.
The Buffalo Bills-Green Bay Packers matchup (+1100) has the third-best odds among the Super Bowl matchups listed. The Patriots-Packers matchup (+2800) is 13th.
The good news for both offenses is that the winds are only supposed to be between 10-12 miles per hour at kickoff.
- Game: New England Patriots (10-7) at Buffalo Bills (11-6)
- Location: Highmark Stadium
- Day/Time: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Television: CBS
Patriots at Bills Betting Lines
New England Patriots Back where they Belong
When the New England Patriots saw their string of consecutive playoff appearances end at 11, and future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady headed to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, more than a few people wondered how long it would be before the Patriots would be back in the playoffs.
Rookie QB Jones went from leading Alabama to the national title to guiding New England into the playoffs after a one-year absence. It didn’t hurt that many of the key defensive players who opted out of the 2020 season returned, and the signing of Matt Judon provided a pass-rushing presence that was missing from recent New England teams. The Patriots finished fourth in the NFL and second in the AFC (behind only Buffalo) in terms of yards allowed per game.
Road wins have been hard to come by since the franchise’s improbable run to the Super Bowl in 1985, when the Patriots won three consecutive road games before having the misfortune of running into the buzzsaw known as the 1985 Chicago Bears and their dreaded 46 defense.
New England is 4-8 on the road in the postseason and 23-3 at home since the start of the 1986 season.
The Patriots will open the postseason listed by the NFL picks against the spread as underdogs.
Bills Overcome Mid-Season Slump
More than a few eyebrows were raised when the Buffalo Bills, one of the top Super Bowl contenders in the AFC, dropped an early November game to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars to begin a stretch of four losses in six games. One of them was a four-point defeat to New England that suddenly denied Buffalo control of the AFC East race.
The Bills didn’t let one forgettable stretch define its season. They won by 12 at New England in the rematch. That set up Buffalo with the need to beat the Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets — both of whom finished the season with losing records — to secure a second straight division title. The late winning streak secured a home playoff game for Buffalo.
A familiar foe.#NEvsBUF | @FDSportsbook pic.twitter.com/vpXqr9q4of
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 10, 2022
It has been an up-and-down season for quarterback Josh Allen, but the defense was more than capable of doing the heavy lifting. Buffalo allowed the fewest yards in the NFL (by margin). One concern is that the Bills allowed 11 more points per game against playoff teams than against teams who failed to clinch postseason berths, so that is something for those who bet online to consider.
Buffalo is just 3-7 in the playoffs since reaching four straight Super Bowls following the 1990-1993 seasons.
Opening Line
The early line opened at four in some markets and at 4½ in others. The BetUS Sportsbook opened at 4½, but was since bet down to a pricey four. The 43½-point total is the lowest of the wild card games, which is not surprising considering that Buffalo ranks first and New England fourth in total defense.
The total has gone over in nine of New England’s last 13 games. It should be noted that the last two Patriots playoffs games finished under the total.
The Las Vegas odds spot New England as the favorite in 13 of the last 15 playoff games. The last time New England was an underdog by more than a field goal in the postseason came in 2014, when the Patriots lost 26-16 to Denver.
