Sunday’s regular-season finale against the Miami Dolphins is a huge one for the New England Patriots, who could find themselves as the AFC’s top seed on Monday morning or as one of the last teams in the playoffs. New England has already secured a playoff spot, but with a win and a Buffalo Bills loss, the Patriots would clinch the AFC East title and (with losses by the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs as well) would clinch the top seed in the conference.
All of those scenarios happening would be pretty unlikely, but the common thread is New England needing to beat the Dolphins. The Patriots are favored by nearly a touchdown on the current NFL betting lines.
- Game: New England Patriots (10-6) at Miami Dolphins (8-8)
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium
- Day/Time: Sunday, January 9, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Television: CBS
Betting Lines
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
| New England Patriots | -6½ | -275 | o40 |
| Miami Dolphins | +6½ | +235 | u40 |
Head-to-Head
The Dolphins have done well in the recent meetings between these teams, winning the last two matchups including a 17-16 Week 1 win in Foxborough. Miami’s defense led the way, holding the Patriots to just one touchdown and three field goals on the day.
Miami leads the historical head-to-head series 58-54.
New England Patriots
Last Game
New England bounced back from a pair of tough losses to crush the Jacksonville Jaguars 50-10 last Sunday in order to secure a playoff berth. This game was never in doubt as the Patriots scored 28 first-half points and forced three Jaguars turnovers. Mac Jones threw for 227 yards and three touchdowns while Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson ran for two touchdowns apiece.
Bill Belichick’s team easily covered as 17-point home favorites. The Patriots easily cleared the point total on their own, making the over a stress-free hit.
Injury Report
The Patriots are relatively healthy considering it’s Week 18. Wide receiver Nelson Agholor is questionable and cornerback Myles Bryant tested positive for COVID, so he’s out and on the COVID/reserve list. Running back Damien Harris, safety Adrian Phillips, and offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn all were banged-up during the win over Jacksonville but their injuries aren’t particularly worrisome.
Miami Dolphins
Last Game
With a chance to keep their own playoff hopes alive, the Dolphins fell flat last weekend and were crushed 34-3 by the Tennessee Titans and Miami’s former quarterback, Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins’ impressive seven-game winning streak was over from the get-go, as the Titans led 17-3 at halftime and kept Tua Tagovailoa completely in check.
The Titans had no issues covering the three-point spread they had as slight home favorites. The under scored thanks to Miami struggling to muster up nearly any offense.
Injury Report
Miami will only be down a few contributors and that’s assuming the Dolphins don’t rest any starters. Defensive backs Noah Igbinoghene and Sheldrick Redwine were placed on the COVID/reserve list this week, and wide receiver Allen Hurns (wrist) and offensive lineman Greg Little (undisclosed) are on injured reserve.
Betting on the Game
This is a classic regular-season finale between division rivals where one has everything to play for and the other has nothing to play for other than pride and possibly being a spoiler. The Patriots know how important for playoff positioning it is for them to get another win, even if they aren’t able to win the AFC East.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins are certainly disappointed to be missing the playoffs but there’s nothing Brian Flores wants to do more than hand his old team a crushing loss — and to get back over .500 for the second-straight season.
There has been a lot of line movement on this game in the broader betting market so, if you’re betting online, you should keep a close eye on this game right up until kickoff. Seven points is a little high considering how the Dolphins have still won seven of their last eight games, so it might settle a bit under the current seven-point spread on the BetUS Sportsbook.
With that said, the Patriots should win this game and should cover. They have a top-10 scoring offense and the No. 1 scoring defense in football, not to mention how New England has forced the third-most turnovers — in large part due to J.C. Jackson — and allowed the third-fewest opposing yards from scrimmage. Miami’s middle-of-the-pack offense is going to have major issues trying to move the ball against New England, especially with how inconsistent Tua Tagovailoa has been this season.
The Dolphins’ moneyline is decent value at +240 and is probably worth a bet if you’re making NFL predictions. However, it might be worthwhile to note that it’s incredibly hard to sweep a season series from a Belichick-coached team and Miami beat New England in Week 1. Still, there’s hope because Mac Jones wasn’t all that impressive in the Patriots’ three games prior to the Jaguars win and the Dolphins have a solid passing defense.
The under might be the move with regards to the point total. Both teams have good defenses and the Patriots might employ a more conservative offensive game plan with a heavy emphasis on their top two running backs. That could drive down the total as could the high likelihood of there being a bunch of drive-killing turnovers in this one.
