Just before the 2021 NFL Draft, the online sportsbook posted regular-season win totals for each team. Those odds came down on Draft Day, but now that the selections have been finalized and the schedule released, NFL regular-season win totals are back. Here’s what’s changed on the AFC West odds board in the last few weeks.
Kansas City Chiefs (-275)
- April 24: 12½ -105o/-125u
- May 17: 12½ -105o/-125u
There is not much movement per the NFL betting lines as the Kansas City Chiefs made the bulk of their moves before the NFL Draft. Kansas City rebuilt its offensive line trading for Ravens’ LT Orlando Brown. Before that, they signed a pair of guards in Kyle Long and Joe Thuney.
During the draft, the Chiefs used their second-round pick and sixth-round pick to draft C Creed Humphrey from Oklahoma and OG Trey Smith from Tennessee, respectively. Three of these players should start for the Chiefs on day one: Brown, Thuney, and Humphrey.
The Chiefs wasted no time addressing their Achilles Heel. And after the schedule reveal, they get a manageable schedule with their opponents combining for a .511 record from last year. KC should dominate again but 12½ is a steep line hence the hesitation from bettors slamming the over on last year’s runner-ups.
Los Angeles Chargers (+600)
- April 24: 9 -125o/-105u
- May 17: 9 -130o/Ev u
It’s not an NFL offseason when there is no Los Angeles Chargers hype. The team bolstered its offensive line in the draft by acquiring OT’s Rashawn Slater of Northwestern and Brenden Jaimes of Nebraska with their first and fifth-round picks, respectively.
The Chargers also addressed its defense by taking CB Asante Samuel Jr. in the second round and edge rusher Chris Rumph II in the fourth. And most recently, Los Angeles signed DL Christian Covington and claimed CB Kemon Hall off waivers.
Depth pieces usually don’t always move the needle. But for a franchise that is usually plagued by injuries and bad luck, the Chargers did well to sign option B’s and C’s. The team finished on a four-game winning streak last season and have the second-easiest schedule in the division. The public is all over the over.
Denver Broncos (+400)
- April 24: 7½ -125o/-105u
- May 17: 8½ -140o/+110u
The Denver Broncos became one of the benefactors of the NFL schedule, as they got the easiest slate in their division. But a lot of the line movement here could be due to the rumors that Aaron Rodgers gets traded here.
Something must be pushing the line move, as the Broncos are now only +400 odds to win the division. Despite that their win total jumped from 7½ to 8½ — with even more juice on the over — they still trail the Chargers who boast an expected nine wins on the season. But something doesn’t add up, as the Chargers are +600 to win the AFC West. The Rodgers Rollercoaster continues.
It’s not out of the question as the Broncos once won the Peyton Manning sweepstakes and went on to appear in two Super Bowls, winning one. Like that team that Manning joined, the Broncos are one elite quarterback away from becoming a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
However, there may be a bigger chance that Rodgers stays in Green Bay when their feud is resolved. That would leave the Broncos out of luck and having to deal with two enigmatic quarterbacks in Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock. Still, an easy schedule and strong defense makes this team at least a playoff contender.
Las Vegas Raiders (+1200)
- April 24: 7½ -125o/-105u
- May 17: 7½ -105o/-125u
Just when the Las Vegas Raiders were looking pretty, they went and did something to remind everyone they were still the Raiders. The franchise made the biggest surprise of the first round by reaching for OT Alex Leatherwood.
For the rest of the draft, the Raiders addressed its defense. The team then used its next five picks to take defenders including not one, not two, but three safeties. Las Vegas also picked up former Charger CB Casey Hayward.
Las Vegas has the right idea to bolster its passing defense in having to play Mahomes and Justin Herbert twice a season. But this organization is usually worth fading, and has only had four non-losing seasons since their coach Jon Gruden blew them out in the Super Bowl nearly two decades ago. Plus they have the division’s toughest slate.