AFC Wild-Card Opening Odds Report: Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

Two of the most popular people in Pittsburgh right now could very well be Los Angeles Chargers’ coach Brandon Staley and Las Vegas Raiders’ kicker Daniel Carlson.

It appeared as if the Sunday night game between the Chargers and Raiders would end in a tie that would have secured playoff spots for both teams while eliminating the Pittsburgh Steelers in the most improbable way imaginable. The Steelers merely had to have the Chargers-Raiders game not end in a tie in order to punch their playoff ticket. What was a longshot scenario for the Steelers earlier in the day was threatening to become a reality.

However, a late timeout called by Staley opened the door for the Raiders to gain just enough yards for Carlson to boot the game-winning 47-yard field goal as time expired in overtime. Now the Chargers are out, and the Steelers are in.

It won’t be the easiest of assignments for the Steelers, playing at the two-time defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs, who overcame a slow start to win the AFC West title for the sixth season in a row.

The teams met in Week 16 in Kansas City and it was no contest as the Chiefs breezed to a 36-10 victory.

The Chiefs (+450) have the best odds among AFC teams to win the Super Bowl and only the Green Bay Packers at +375 have better championship odds. The Pittsburgh Steelers (+8000) have the longest odds to win the Super Bowl among the 14 playoff teams.

Game: Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
Location: Arrowhead Stadium
Day/Time: Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Television: NBC

Steelers vs Chiefs Betting Lines

Steelers Thankful for Sunday Night Chaos

When documenting the more bizarre ways that a team has clinched a playoff spot, it would be hard to top how the Pittsburgh Steelers secured a place in the postseason.

The last game of the regular season was tied with less than a minute to play in overtime. If the contest between the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders ended in a tie, the Steelers would be out despite some overtime magic of their own in a win over rival Baltimore.

With 38 seconds left, Chargers coach Brandon Staley took a timeout. That gave the Raiders a chance to cross up the Chargers by handing the ball to Josh Jacobs instead of throwing the ball. Jacobs gained 10 yards to turn what would have been a 57-yard field goal attempt into a 47-yarder. Carlson’s kick was good, and Steeler Nation could count their lucky blessings.

The Steelers know a thing about winning close games, as Pittsburgh was 7-1-1 in games decided by seven points or less. The tie came against the then-winless Detroit Lions and figured to come back to haunt the Steelers.

However, Pittsburgh won six games when trailing heading into the fourth quarter to give quarterback Ben Roethlisberger one last postseason experience.

The Las Vegas odds list the Steelers as 13-point underdogs against Kansas City, the highest number among the six wild card games and a rare playoff match with a double-digit point spread.

More Home Cooking for Chiefs

When the Kansas City Chiefs fell to the Tennessee Titans in October, the two-time defending AFC champions were 3-4 and more than a few people wondered whether their reign as AFC champions was over.

Fortunately for Kansas City, and unfortunately for the naysayers, the NFL season features 17 games (not seven). The Chiefs were aided by playing all the teams in the NFC East and were more than happy to pick up four wins against that division. The defense, which was exposed in the Super Bowl loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, came to life as Kansas City allowed just 65 points in the next six games.

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes wasn’t about to let his teammates have all the fun, as he threw 12 touchdown passes and one interception over the last five games.

The Chiefs won four of those five games although a 34-31 loss to AFC North Division champions Cincinnati would prove costly. Although the Chiefs finished the regular season at 12-5, which was better than 14 of the teams in the AFC, it matched the mark of AFC South Division champion Tennessee Titans.

With the Titans winning the lone regular-season matchup between the teams, it is Tennessee that has home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

How important is that? Well, the Chiefs haven’t played a road playoff game against an AFC team since 2015 and Mahomes has never played a true road game in the postseason. Super Bowl LV which was won by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, goes down as a neutral-site game, ever though it was played at Raymond James Stadium, the home of the Buccaneers.

With a chance to secure home-field advantage and a first-round bye, Kansas City didn’t rest its key players and time will tell if that is costly. A few Chiefs players came out of the regular-season finale against Denver with injuries, including star receiver Tyreek Hill, who is dealing with a heel issue.

Reid says Tyreek Hill had a sore heel and Darrel Williams was dealing with a big toe that was bothering him. @KCTV5

— Dani Welniak (@KCTVDani) January 9, 2022

Kansas City has won its last five playoffs games when listed by the NFL picks against the spread as favorites.

Opening Line

The Kansas City Chiefs opened as 13-point favorites and it is just the second time in the last 15 home playoff games that the Chiefs are a double-digit favorite at home. Kansas City was favored by 10 against Houston on Jan. 12, 2020, and rolled to a 51-31 victory.

The total of 46½ is a bit on the low side considering that each of the last seven times that the Chiefs had a home playoff game, the total was over 50. However, Kansas City’s defense has shown the ability to take over games. Also, the Steelers have been held under 21 points in seven of its last 11 games, including the loss to the Chiefs, which could be of interest to those who bet online.

The 13-point line and 46½-point total are still holding firm, but if Hill continues to be limited in practice, both could be on the move.

The Chiefs’ inability to protect Mahomes was the No. 1 reason why they failed to repeat as Super Bowl champions, but Kansas City addressed the line in the offseason. Facing a Pittsburgh defense led by T.J. Watt (who tied the NFL record with 22½ sacks) this is the time when those offseason maneuvers need to pay off.