Welcome to halftime of Super Bowl 58. It’s been a hell of a ride so far, but we’re only halfway to the outcome of the Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers on Sunday at Allegiant Stadium. If you’re getting anxious and don’t want to wait until the end of the game to cash NFL betting tickets, I have a treat for you.
I spent the afternoon predicting several outcomes for the first half and writing live in-play betting picks for the second half of Super Bowl 58 based on those eventualities. We don’t need to jump into a lengthy recap of the game. If you are reading this, you are likely watching closely.
The Cliff Notes are that both offenses sputtered out of the gate and failed to score in the first quarter. Business has picked up, with the 49ers leading 10-3, but it’s been all defense early.
Usher can only sing for so long, so let’s not waste any more time and get into my 2H live betting picks for the Super Bowl.
Here’s a look at some NFL odds to consider!
49ers Start Slow But Maintain Lead
Despite leading 10-3, the 49ers still have much work to continue their success against the best defense they’ve played in a long time. Because of how good Andy Reid makes halftime adjustments and how skilled KC’s defense is, I like the 49ers’ live halftime team total to go Under.
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) February 11, 2024
Furthermore, despite the success of their offense, the 49ers run one of the slowest offenses in the league. They eat up the play clock like a fat kid at a pizza party, and when they are leading, the temple is akin to a snail ascending a steep hill with all the presnap adjustments and motions.
If they hold the lead, they will get conservative and play more small ball. This means more rushes and short passes.
Christian McCaffrey will be the primary beneficiary of this game plan, and going over his rushing attempts and yards is a solid play in the second half. Deebo Samuel will also get some extra looks, and his big-play ability makes him another worthwhile NFL pick for second-half player props.
Defense Dominated the First Half
In the lead-up to this game, much of the focus was on the offenses of each team. It’s easy to get excited about high-scoring and high-flying offenses, but the quality of both defenses was slightly overlooked.
We saw the first scoreless first quarter in a Super Bowl in five years, and the second half might be a grind, too. We’ve also seen three fumbles, with each team losing one.
With both defenses playing well and each offense taking time to get going, I like the full game total to fall under. Sure, these offenses could make second-half adjustments and come out swinging. But I believe it’s more likely that the 49ers will focus on what’s going well and tighten up even more on defense.
Passing the ball might become a hassle for the 49ers, and they resort to relying on the run game.
The Chiefs will be more willing to let fly, especially down 10-3, so it feels viable that Mahomes will go over his yardage total. But, as far as Purdy, stick to his rushing yardage if you want to be Over on a prop.
Late-Game In-Play Betting Tips
Second-half bets aren’t the only Vegas betting odds you can live wager during the rest of the game. There is still a lot of football left to play, so let’s look at two potential situations and how to live-bet them.
Chiefs Behind Late, But Keeping Pace
If the Chiefs are good for one thing, it’s a late-game comeback. They trailed the Buffalo Bills in the fourth quarter before eking out a three-point victory a few weeks back. And who can forget the Chiefs’ epic comeback win over the Philadelphia Eagles in last year’s Super Bowl after trailing 24-14 at halftime. Not to mention, Mahomes went into the break injured.
At Super Bowl 57, the Chiefs’ live odds were up to around +300, far better than their pregame odds. But after a combined 35 points in the second half, the Chiefs ended up on top, 38-35.
The Chiefs are 100% a second-half team, thanks to Mahomes’ clutch play. He has 18 career fourth-quarter comebacks and 21 game-winning drives, including five in the playoffs.
With that in mind, with the Chiefs down at halftime, I’ll happily bet them to win outright as I did with my pregame bets. I also like them to score a TD on their first drive of the second half.
Take A Look At These Other 2 NFL Special Articles
- Betting Trends to Make Your NFL Picks for Super Bowl 58
- Super Bowl 58 Betting: Last-Minute Adjustments
Niners Down Late in a Close Game
Unlike the Chiefs, the 49ers have not done well in the fourth quarter when they trail. Kyle Shanahan is an abysmal 1-30 SU when he’s down by 5+ points entering the 4Q as a head coach in his career. That’s awful and is enough reason to stay away from betting on the 49ers SU if they enter the fourth quarter down by a field goal or more to the Chiefs.
I would only consider a live bet on a losing 49ers team if I was heavily invested in the Chiefs to win and wanted to hedge.