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Will There Be Defensive or Special Teams Score In Super Bowl LVI?

Non-offensive touchdowns aren’t nearly as big a part of NFL games as they used to be but, as the Green Bay Packers saw first-hand when the San Francisco 49ers turned a blocked punt into a score in the Divisional Round, there are still plenty of ways for teams to score on defense or special teams.

When the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams face off in Super Bowl LVI next Sunday, plenty of bettors will have action on either side on whether there will be a special teams or defensive touchdown

TAMPA, FLORIDA - JANUARY 23: Aaron Donald #99 of the Los Angeles Rams looks on before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Raymond James Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Kevin C. Cox / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Let’s break down both sides of that bet with an eye to the NFL betting odds on the BetUS sportsbook:

The Odds

There Will Be A Defensive/Special Teams Touchdown (+215)

In 272 regular-season games this season, there were a total of 78 combined defensive and special teams touchdowns — equivalent to around .29 non-offensive touchdowns scored per game. There have been three more in the playoffs.

All of that is to say that, generally speaking, non-offensive touchdowns are scored in a bit less than one in every three games. So, based on those figures, the value for there to be one scored in the Super Bowl probably should be much higher than it is.

There Won’t Be A Defensive/Special Teams Touchdown (-270)

If you’re making NFL predictions, it’s helpful to look at recent Super Bowl history for this particular bet. The last non-offensive touchdown in the Super Bowl was Robert Alford’s pick-six of Tom Brady in 2017 — a touchdown that preceded the Atlanta Falcons’ 28-3 collapse in Super Bowl LI. There were 17 non-offensive touchdowns in the Super Bowls from 2000-to-2017, good for nearly one per year.

Things have cooled off a bit since which shows that the last two decades were some kind of unique aberration for this bet — a lucrative one for bettors who took the side that there would be a defensive/special teams score.

The Teams

The Rams had one defensive touchdown this year and Los Angeles had one special-teams score. Cincinnati had a pair of defensive scores, a pick-six and fumble return. Neither team has a particular electric return man nor do they have the kind of ball-hawking secondaries who could be relied on to force pick-sixes. Jalen Ramsey might be the closest thing to that kind of defensive back for either team but he has just one career score and that came in his rookie year.

The best bet for a non-defensive score in this game is for the Rams to force a fumble and return the loose ball to the house. Los Angeles has the best defensive player in football, Aaron Donald, and Donald had 12.5 sacks and four forced fumbles this season. They also have Von Miller and Leonard Floyd (each with 9.5 sacks on the year) so they shouldn’t have much trouble getting to Joe Burrow, who’s behind a weak offensive line. Burrow has only lost two fumbles this year, though, so it’s not a foregone conclusion the Rams will have a shot at a fumble-six.

The Pick

If you’re betting online, you should bet that there won’t be a defensive or special teams touchdown in next Sunday’s game. It’s always tough to prognosticate this kind of prop bet because it can’t really be predicted, but the value on the flip side of the bet just isn’t worth it.

You’d have to put a decent amount of money on “no” to get any kind of profit here but that’s probably the smartest route to go for this particular prop.

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