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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: Betting Guide

The Atlanta Falcons will attempt to avoid the series sweep when they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 13 of the NFL season, but the oddsmakers aren’t optimistic. In fact, by the NFL odds, the Falcons appear destined for the dustbin.

  • Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3) at Atlanta Falcons (5-6)
  • Location: Mercedes Benz Superdome, Atlanta
  • Day/Time: Sunday, Dec. 5, 2021, 1 p.m. ET
  • Television: FOX

Betting Lines

Team Point Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -11 -110 -510 50½ -110o
Atlanta Falcons +11 -110 +410 50½ -110u


The Buccaneers and Falcons are set to go head-to-head for the second time. The Buccaneers won their first meeting a 48-25 at Raymond James Stadium, coming through as the whopping 13-point home chalk for NFL picks against the spread relatively comfortably.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: Betting Guide-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: Betting Guide-

Since Tom Brady took over as the offensive pivot for the Buccaneers in 2020, they’ve reeled off three-straight wins over the Atlanta Falcons. Last season, the Buccaneers swept the series winning 31-27 at the Mercedes Superdome and then 44-27 in Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Next game: vs Buffalo Bills

Last Game

Tampa Bay came from behind to beat Indianapolis Sunday as the Bucs dealt the Colts a 38-31 loss. The Colts were a bit teed-off with oddsmakers after learning that they were dubbed the field-goal home underdogs in betting online markets. It seems that they’d fancied their chances, though the markets didn’t.

The Colts started with that in mind, and to their credit, they did have the Buccaneers on the ropes after a solid first half. The Buccaneers have lost a few doozies this season, so the Colts weren’t exactly clutching at straws here.

However, Tom Brady did his Tom-Terrific thing in the end… you know, when he cranks it up several notches and orchestrates a comeback against reasonable probability ..and the Buccaneers rallied to victory.

Tampa Bay won handily to the chagrin of Indy fans at Lucas Oil Stadium, and Brady improved his personal record against the Colts to 16-6 lifetime. Is it any wonder, players and teams respect the guy so much. Why he’s the indisputable GOAT. His stats and records speak volumes

Episode 3 of #HardKnocks: In Season with the @Colts premieres tonight at 10pm ET on HBO/HBO Max pic.twitter.com/arZ67L5Gej

— NFL (@NFL) December 1, 2021

Injury Report

Cornerback Jamel Dean (shoulder), wide receiver Jaleon Darden (concussion), guard Ali Marpet (abdominal), wide receiver Antonio Brown (ankle), and cornerback Carlton Davis (quadricep) are all questionable for Sunday’s clash with the Falcons in Week 13.

Atlanta Falcons

Next game: at Carolina Panthers

Last Game

The Falcons returned into the win column at the expense of the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, clinching a cathartic 21-14 win at TIAA Bank Field. The victory lifted the Falcons to a 5-6 record and keeps their faint hopes of a playoff spot alive. Bring out the bubbly!

The Falcons desperately needed to win last weekend. Heck, Matt Ryan desperately needed to win, if only to save face and his starting job. Ryan was coming off his worst performance this season in a brutal 25-0 loss to the New England Patriots in Week 11.

This time around, it was Mac Jones and not his nemesis Tom Brady at the helm, but the rookie did a really good impression of his predecessor, conjuring up sepia-toned memories of Super Bowl LI. When Ryan and the Falcons imploded spectacularly and fritted away a 28-3 lead by allowing Brady and the Patriots to score 31 unanswered points to snatch the improbable 34-28 victory.

Injury Report

Linebacker Deion Jones (shoulder), defensive lineman Johnathan Bullard (knee), defensive back Kendall Sheffield (hamstring), and linebacker Steven Means (knee) are all questionable.

Betting on the Game

Ryan and the Falcons took a thorough beatdown the last time they faced the Buccaneers. The Falcons closed as the 13-point road underdogs at the sportsbook exchange, but they failed to whiff at the point spread in the 23-point margin of defeat. A lot of that had to do with the fact that Brady had five touchdowns while Ryan threw three interceptions. If that doesn’t just sum up the quarterback head-to-head or this matchup, what will?

So, how will this reprisal of division hostilities go?

The Falcons are buoyed by the win over the Jaguars as it lifts them into the NFL playoff conversation, tied in the seventh spot with a number of NFC hopefuls. By virtue of this fortuitous twist, the Falcons might fancy their chances at home in this matchup.

But the question is: do you trust the Falcons to come away with the upset? Granted it’s a tempting bet at +410 odds (bet $100 to win $410). But the Falcons are unpredictable, inconsistent, frustrating and, at times, bewildering. Bet on the Falcons at your own peril!

The Buccaneers aren’t infallible. Losses to the New Orleans Saints and Washington Football Team last month are case-and-point. However, in the last couple of weeks, the Bucs have perked up behind wins over the New York Giants and the Colts.

The return of Rob Gronkowski coincides with this upturn in form, and so too the return to form of star running back Leonard Fournette, who is coming off an impressive four-tuddy performance in Indy.

More likely than not, Tampa Bay will win this game outright. However. betting the Buccaneers at -510 on the moneyline isn’t the value play here because forking over $510 to win $100 doesn’t offer an attractive risk vs reward ratio. So, the question is whether the Buccaneers can cover as the 11-point road chalk? The answer is, yes.

Tampa Bay has covered four of five double-digit spreads this season, the only exception is the loss to Washington (+10). The Bucs (-13) covered against the Falcons in Week 2; as well, at -11 in a 45-17 win over the Miami Dolphins, at -12 in a 38-3 win over the Chicago Bears, and at -10.5 in a 30-10 win over the Giants.

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