An upset could be brewing in East Rutherford, N.J., as the underdog New York Jets look to get their first win as they face the short-handed Tennessee Titans on Sunday. The Titans are sizable favorites on the NFL betting lines but there has been action on both ends due to Tennessee’s injuries.
|Game: Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New York Jets (0-3)
Location: MetLife Stadium. Date: Sunday
Time: 1 p.m. ET
|Team||Point Spread||Moneyline||Over/Under||Team Total|
|Tennessee||-7 +105||-280||44½ -110o||24½ -130o/Evu|
|New York Jets||+7 -125||+240||44½ -110u||17½ -135o/+105u|
The Titans lead the all-time series against the Jets 25-19-1 with all but one game being in the regular season. But since the franchise relocated to Tennessee in 1998, the Jets have won seven of their 11 meetings, including two of their last three. The Titans won the latest meeting back in 2018.
Next game: at Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee has rebounded nicely following a disastrous opening game. The Titans beat the Colts 25-16 last week to improve to 2-1 and now sit atop the horrible AFC South. The Titans also covered an NFL pick against the spread for the second consecutive time, which now puts them at .500 in their last eight spreads.
Add star wide receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones to the Titans’ long list of injuries as both are unlikely to play this Sunday due to hamstring injuries. Punter Brett Kern (groin) is also out and Tennessee has signed Johnny Townsend instead.
New York Jets
Next game: at Atlanta Falcons
The Jets continued to get worse as they got shut out 26-0 against Denver last week. With the loss, the Jets have now bottomed out as the worst offense in the NFL. Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson was terrible once again, throwing two picks with no touchdowns. The good news for the Jets is they’ve held their own defensively and have allowed the 10th-fewest yards.
Like Tennessee, New York will be a pair of receivers short as both Elijah Moore and Jeff Smith have been ruled out due to concussions. Jamison Crowder (groin) and Denzel Mims, a healthy scratch the last two games, will return to the lineup. Safety Marcus Maye (ankle) will also be unavailable.
Betting on the Game
Make that four straight times New York has failed to cover the spread dating to last season. This team is just bad in all sorts of definitions, especially on offense. An overwhelming amount of bets online have been on Tennessee at seven points for obvious reasons.
However, the Titans will be without their two best receivers who account for 37 percent of the team’s targets. The Titans have already struggled to cover as favorites, going 12-16-1 against the spread (ATS) under coach Mike Vrabel. They went 4-7 ATS last season and were 2-3 ATS as a favorite of seven or more points.
The Titans’ defense has been the subject of criticism since getting blown out by the Arizona Cardinals, but they haven’t been too shabby. In fact, Tennessee ranks fifth in quarterback hurry percent and third in pressure rate. The Titans are also tied for first in passes defended.
Crowder back, Mims playing, shaky Titans defense.
No excuse for the #Jets not to score points this week.
— The Jet Press (@TheJetPress) October 1, 2021
Tennessee’s biggest issues are allowing big plays and forcing turnovers. The Titans are second to last in the NFL in turnovers forced and have allowed too many big plays while barely getting any on their own end. The defense is allowing 6.13 yards per play, which is the seventh-most.
On the flip side, the Jets have maintained their dysfunction on offense. Wilson hasn’t had much of a chance to make any plays thanks to confused offensive line and receivers with little-to-no ability to create separation. New York’s 4.14 yards per play is third-fewest in the league.
Even if Tennessee is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 against the Jets, this may be the worst version the Titans are facing. But Wilson, in the brief moments he’s had clean pockets, has been able to make something happen. And Tennessee’s defense chronically breaks down. But go ahead and throw them in pleasers or teasers since it’s still the Jets. Right?
It won’t be too shocking if the Jets play the Titans to a close game, maybe even a one-possession game. But beating Tennessee as a +240 underdog would be quite an upset. The Jets have actually taken some money on the sportsbook since opening at +280.
“A broken clock is right twice a day.” Last season, the Jets pulled off upsets against the Los Angeles Rams and Cleveland Browns as 17-point and 6½-point underdogs, respectively. They are now 2-16-0 as underdogs since last season. Upsets happen all the time. This would be the only rational belief on how the Jets can win.
The under has been the popular bet here for obvious reasons. Take your pick of the following: a) the total has gone under six of the Jets’ last seven games; b) the Jets have the worst offense in the NFL; c) the Titans’ passing game takes a big blow without Brown and Jones.
At 44½, the total is pretty slim and its tied as the fourth-lowest this week. Tennessee’s road games tend to be high-scoring with the over hitting in seven of its last eight games. Even if the public is partial to the low-scoring, there is value in thinking this game becomes a shootout.