Top 5 Upsets in Super Bowl History

This year, there won’t be any shot at a big upset in Super Bowl 59 because the Kansas City Chiefs opened as slim -1.5 point favorites over the Bills. A blowout win could go down, but no real upset is on the table.

With no chance for massive moneyline profits on Feb. 9, I wanted to explore the five biggest NFL odds upsets against the spread in Super Bowl history.

5 Biggest Super Bowl Upsets

5. SB XXXII Broncos (+11) def Packers

Final score: Denver 31-24

The 1998 Super Bowl was the first half of John Elway’s swan song as the Denver Broncos won again in 1999 before the old gunslinger retired. The Broncos came in as +11 underdogs to Brett Favre’s Green Bay Packers, who were fresh off a championship and looking for a repeat.

But Broncos running back Terrell Davis stole the show, rushing for 157 yards and scoring three touchdowns despite battling a migraine. The game’s defining moment? Elway’s helicopter dive for a first down. It was like something out of “The Longest Yard.”

The Broncos won 31-24, becoming the first Wild Card champions in nearly 20 years and leaving cheeseheads with a super-sized heartbreak.

“The Elway-Copter”

Super Bowl XXXII

John Elway’s clutch 8-yard, third-down run in the third quarter of #Broncos‘ first Super Bowl triumph. #BroncosCountry

January 25, 1998 pic.twitter.com/4fim3E57r3

— Kevin Gallagher (@KevG163) January 25, 2025

4. SB IV Chiefs (+12) def Vikings

Final score: Chiefs 23-7

The 1970 Super Bowl proved that the NFL-AFL rivalry wasn’t so lopsided after all. The Chiefs, entering as +12 underdogs, took down the mighty Minnesota Vikings 23-7 and made historic NFL news.

The Vikings, rocking the league’s top offense and the terrifying “Purple People Eaters” defense, were supposed to steamroll the Chiefs. Instead, Kansas City flipped the script, dominating both sides of the ball and embarrassing Minnesota QB Joe Kapp. It was the first of four Super Bowl losses of the decade for the Vikings. Brutal.

3. SB XLII Giants (+12.5) def Patriots

Final score: Giants 17-14

As a diehard Giants fan, Super Bowl XLII is not just my favorite upset — it’s my favorite moment in sports, period. Tom Brady and the 18-0 Patriots strutted into Glendale, Ariz., like they were about to be crowned kings of the universe, only to get humbled by Eli Manning and Big Blue. Brady? Thanks to a relentless Giants pass rush, he spent most of the game picking grass out of his helmet.

The game had everything: Eli Houdini-ing out of a sack, David Tyree’s impossible “helmet catch” (still rent-free in Pats fans’ nightmares), and Plaxico Burress catching the game-winning TD. That pass? Iconic. Plax’s later nightclub incident? Not so much.

Final score: 17-14 Giants. The Pats’ dreams of a perfect season? Gone. This upset wasn’t just history — it was pure poetry, written in Brady’s sweet, sweet tears.

2. SB XXXVI Patriots (+14) def Rams

Final score: Patriots 20-17

Super Bowl XXXVI gave birth to the Brady-Belichick dynasty, but let’s not forget: This one wasn’t precisely kosher (shalom, Spygate!). The “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams, with Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk and Co., were double-digit favorites, but the Patriots pulled off a stunner.

A 17-3 Pats lead turned into a 17-17 tie before young Tom Brady engineered a late drive to set up Adam Vinatieri’s iconic game-winning field goal. Rams fans are still bitter, and I don’t blame them.

1. SB III Jets (+18) def Colts

Final score: Jets 16-7

Super Bowl III was Joe Namath’s “Hold my beer” moment. The Jets strutted in as 18-point underdogs to the mighty Colts, a team that was supposed to steamroll them. Baltimore was 15-1, coached by Don Shula and widely considered the best team in football. Ever.

Namath? He straight-up guaranteed a Jets win because why not make NFL predictions like that? He was probably hammered, anyway.

When a drunk Joe Namath got interviewed by ESPN 😭 pic.twitter.com/LacYOk9Kx4

— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) January 24, 2025

Namath didn’t throw a touchdown, but it’s no big deal, right? The Jets defense smacked around the Colts, forcing five turnovers. Earl Morrall threw three picks and got benched for Johnny Unitas, who didn’t do much better. Meanwhile, Matt Snell handled business on the ground and Jim Turner’s three field goals sealed the 16-7 win.

This was a mic drop for the AFL, proving they could hang with the NFL. Namath made good on his promise and the Colts shamed their families for generations.

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets

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