Trap Game of the Week 18
Niners Own Rams
The San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams face-off in a high-stakes NFC West showdown with huge playoff implications on Sunday. BetUS sportsbook favors the Rams significantly on the odds board, but it’s the Niners that own the recent head-to-head series. That includes a 31-10 win over the Rams at Levi’s Stadium on November 15, 2021..
So, this raises the question whether the market has it right? Or is this market an example of the proverbial trap bet?
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Niners Dialed-In
Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan has had the measure of his Los Angeles counterpart Sean McVay in recent years.
McVay became the head coach of the Rams in 2017. In nine meetings between these NFC West rivals since, the Niners have the advantage over the Rams 6-3. This includes a run of five straight wins by the Niners going back to 2019.
Earlier in 2021, the Niners upset the Rams 31-10 to come through as the 3½-point home underdogs for NFL picks against the spread.
In spite of this dominant record, bookmakers have gone to press with the 9-7 Niners installed as the firm road underdogs. At the time of writing, the Niners are catching 4½ points. That, taken against the context of their five-game winning streak over the Rams, feels like a steal bet.
Uncertainty surrounding quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who suffered a serious hand injury, is largely responsible for this negative market outlook that goes against established betting online trends between this pair.
Garopoolo is keen to play, but he’s going to be a game-time decision. Should Garoppolo be ruled out, rookie Trey Lance will start in what is a season-defining game for Shanahan’s side.
George Kittle, well aware that cameras are rolling, comments on Jimmy Garoppolo’s throws. pic.twitter.com/FJxAWEut2I
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) January 5, 2022
The Niners need a win over the Rams to clinch a playoff spot. Garoppolo sat out last week, giving Lance his second start. The rookie led the Niners to a straightforward 23-7 win over the Houston Texans.
It doesn’t take an NFL savant to understand that the pressure of the occasion this time around might be too great for an untried and untested quarterback. This sort of win-and-you’re-in situation can be the making of a player or his downfall.
Garoppolo probably gives the Niners their best chance. The veteran quarterback practiced on Wednesday, which is an encouraging sign and underscores his likelihood of starting on Sunday. It’s a few days until then, though, so monitoring Jimmy G.’s situation will be crucial.
Jimmy Garoppolo on what it feels like to throw with a Grade 3 UCL tear in his thumb:
“It, f**k… it hurts.” pic.twitter.com/gfwSn3haSi
— KNBR (@KNBR) January 5, 2022
Rams Faux Faves?
The markets’ favorable outlook has a lot to do with where the 12-4 Rams are currently: at the top of the NFC West and merely a win-away from sealing the division title.
Only a win will guarantee Los Angeles the division crown. A loss to the Niners coupled with a win by the 11-5 Arizona Cardinals over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 18 would scupper those hopes. The Cardinals own the tiebreaker after sweeping the series with the Rams, meaning a win would deliver the title to the Cards.
How the Rams have managed to claw their way to the top of the NFC West is nothing short of a minor miracle. It appears they strung together a five-game winning streak in spite of the haphazard play from quarterback Matthew Stafford.
MATTHEW STAFFORD TO CHUCK CLARK FOR SIX🔥
pic.twitter.com/8C3ZoqGdKh— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) January 2, 2022
One could argue he did his best to undo his side’s best efforts. Against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 16, the Rams overcame three interceptions thrown by Stafford to clinch the 30-23 win.
In Week 17, they overcame another couple of interceptions and a lost fumble from their signal-caller to eke out the 20-19 win over a banged-up Baltimore Ravens side.
NFL Predictions and Picks: Mind The Trap!
While the Rams are playing to win the division, the Niners are playing to get into the playoffs. Both incentives are sure to provide motivation for both camps. How each side rises to the occasion though is sure to be decisive.
Rams fans have cause for concern, particularly looking at Stafford’s uneven play of late. Yes, the Rams have more star players than their rivals and they’re an attractive bunch that bettors want to believe in. However, if the occasion gets to the veteran signal-caller, causing him to generously donate points again, the Niners are likely to capitalize. That fact, along with their losing record against San Francisco, makes the Rams’ odds feel like a bit of a trap.
That makes a bet on San Francisco’s NFL odds in the point spread betting markets worth consideration – be it with a view to bet on a Niners cover only or the outright win.
