Use These 10 Betting Tips for NFL Wild Card Games

NFL Wild Card Top 10 Betting Tips

1. Home Team Dynamics

Home-field advantage isn’t as dominant in the Wild Card round as one might assume. Since 2002, home teams hold a 49-41 straight-up (SU) record but lag against the NFL spread (ATS) at 41-48-1. However, with the playoff expansion to seven teams per conference, home teams have improved slightly, going 11-7 SU and 9-9 ATS over the past three years.

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2. Impact of First-Time Playoff Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks making their playoff debut often face challenges. Since 2002, such quarterbacks are 17-35-1 ATS and 17-36 SU, per NFL betting trends. The pressure of postseason play can affect performance, making it a critical factor when evaluating teams led by playoff newcomers.

3. Underdog Performance

Historically, underdogs have shown resilience during the Wild Card round. Since 2017, playoff underdogs boast a 29-18 against the spread (ATS) record, with those in the Wild Card round achieving a remarkable 15-3 ATS, covering the spread by an average of 7.2 points per game.

4. Influence of Weather Conditions

Outdoor Wild Card games frequently trend towards the under, especially in adverse weather. Twenty-two of the last 29 outdoor Wild Card games have gone under the total. Monitoring weather forecasts can provide valuable insights on making NFL predictions, as conditions like wind, snow or rain can suppress scoring.

5. Double-Digit Favorites a Bad Bet ATS

Bettors should exercise caution with double-digit favorites in the Wild Card round. Since 2011, such favorites are just 2-10 ATS. The playoffs often feature closely contested games, and large spreads can be challenging to cover.

6. Rematch Scenarios

The adage that “it’s hard to beat a team three times in a season” doesn’t hold much water. Teams that swept an opponent in the regular season and faced them again in the playoffs are 12-7 SU and 9-9-1 ATS in the Wild Card era. While not overwhelmingly conclusive, it suggests that previous dominance can continue.

7. Totals and Scoring Trends

The under has been a profitable trend in recent Wild Card games. Since 2003, games with totals set below 50 points have seen the under hit at a 60% rate. Defensive intensity typically ramps up in the playoffs, leading to lower-scoring affairs for online betting.

8. Performance of Teams with Momentum

Entering the playoffs on a winning streak doesn’t guarantee continued success. Teams on a three-game (or more) winning streak facing teams not on such streaks are 45-47-1 ATS since 2003, including 16-15 ATS since 2016. Momentum is a factor, but it’s not definitive.

9. Teaser Bets on Playoff Underdogs

Playoff underdogs have been reliable when included in teaser bets. Over the past four years, they are 18-0 when teased. This trend underscores the value of gaining additional points on the spread in closely contested playoff games for NFL picks and parlays.

10. Coaching and Experience Factors

Coaching experience plays a pivotal role in the playoffs. Coaches with previous playoff experience often have better ATS records compared to those making their postseason debut. Evaluating coaching matchups can provide an edge in betting decisions for NFL picks against the spread.

Final Thoughts

Betting on the NFL Wild Card games requires a blend of historical insight and current analysis. While trends offer valuable guidance, each game presents unique variables. Consider team form, NFL injuries, weather conditions and coaching strategies alongside these trends to make informed betting choices.

Always remember to bet responsibly and view these trends as tools to enhance your understanding, not guarantees of outcomes.

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Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.