What Would it Take for the New York Jets …
Every NFL season brings with it outliers who far exceed expectations or disappoint miserably. With the futures odds set for the 2021 NFL season, we examine that broad range of possibilities for the New York Jets.
When Last We Met
Expectations were low for the New York Jets last season, but winning only two games was a disappointment even by their standards.
They didn’t have an easy start to the season after facing the Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos in the first four games. However, a Week Six loss to Miami was the definition of poor.
New York failed to score in the 24-0 defeat, and it’s not like the Dolphins were one of the best defensive teams in the NFL. Unfortunately for Jets fans, the season didn’t get much better and it made betting online tough for Jets bettors.
They entered the Week 10 bye without a victory and the winless streak continued to Week 15 when they scored an upsetover the Los Angeles Rams. The 23-20 result was a turn up for the online sportsbook, and it showed what the Jets can achieve.
New York followed it up with a 23-16 win over the Cleveland Browns before losing the final game 28-14 to the New England Patriots.
Overall, it looked like the Jets were trying to secure a top NFL draft pick for the 2021 season. NFL betting lines reflected as much and 2021 could be played in similar fashion.
To Miss the Playoffs (-700)
Bookmakers aren’t expecting the New York Jets to make the playoffs and it’s hardly surprising given their horrendous recent form.
Gone is Adam Gase, who had a short and unsuccessful tenure as head coach. It came as no surprise when he was given the boot, as the Jets aren’t the ideal destination for a coach trying to establish a winning record.
Quarterback Sam Darnold left without making much of an impact and defensive tackle Henry Anderson was released. We thought more Jets players would opt out of their contracts, but given some of the signings they have made, there is hope in the camp.
The big question is whether the Jets play for another top draft pick. They could have won a few more games last season, but made some questionable plays in the fourth quarter. We’re not claiming the Jets were tanking, but it’s not uncommon and they were in desperate need of a quarterback.
Another big question is the impact of former BYU quarterback Zach Wilson, the No. 2 overall pick in the draft. He wouldn’t have been our first choice at QB, or second choice for that matter. The Jets don’t have a good history drafting quarterbacks, which includes Mark Sanchez and Darnold. If the Jets want to make the playoffs, they better hope Wilson is much better at the pro level than Darnold.
NFL odds are long for the Jets for numerous reasons. They are mired in a losing culture and that’s not easy to turn around. Having a new head coach can go one of two ways, but it’s typically a rough first year for the newbies.
Coach Robert Saleh was an excellent defensive coach at San Francisco, but it doesn’t always translate to running both sides of the ball. We believe Saleh will have a positive impact over time in New York, providing he gets the time to go through the systems and create a winning atmosphere. However, as the -700 odds suggest, it’s unlikely to be this season.
New York has numerous tough games on the schedule. It faces the likes of Buffalo and New England twice in the AFC East, as well as non-divisional games against the likes of Tennessee, New Orleans and Tampa Bay.
To Make the Playoffs (+450)
Despite all their shortcomings, the Jets have a chance to make the playoffs if they knuckle down and create a winning culture.
They don’t have the toughest schedule and, although posting a winning record in the AFC East is very difficult, we wouldn’t completely rule them out.
The Bills, Dolphins and Patriots would all need to struggle for the Jets to make it, but the Dolphins are no sure thing and the Patriots are still in a rebuilding phase.
The Jets haven’t lost much in the way of talent from last season, which is good to see. They have added a stack of talent, which leads us to believe they’re targeting 2021 as a potential playoff-bound season.
Wide receiver Corey Davis and defensive end Carl Lawson were the big signings. Lawson signed for three years for $45 million and Davis for three years and $37.5 million. They can build a future with those players and the addition of rookie QB Wilson could make the difference.
Davis has been playing in a similar offensive scheme in Tennessee and he is looking forward to catching deep passes from Wilson despite knowing the Jets lean on the ground game,
“We understand the caliber of running backs we have and we’ve got some talent up front,” Davis said. “We’ve got to be run-heavy, and the play action is off of that. We’ve got great wideouts that can go down and dig out safeties when we need to as well as catch a deep pass over their heads.
“I’m turned up, man, I can’t wait. There’s a lot of tradition here and in that stadium as well. I know the fans are going to bring it, so we’ve got to bring it as well. It’s going to be a good year for us. I feel it.”
If Wilson is able to have a positive impact and translate his college form into the pros, New York has a legitimate playoff chance. Wilson looked solid in preseason and the early signs are positive.
“I thought it was good,” Wilson told ESPN after his preseason debut on Saturday night. “Of course I still have things to clean up. It was a great experience. I really enjoyed having that game-like setting, kind of the intro to the NFL and the whole game.”
Saleh was pleased with the effort and believes his young QB has plenty of potential.
“We have so much confidence in the young man,” Saleh said. “You want to stack up as many good days as possible, but there’s youth. He’s still a rookie, and there’s still a lot of things he’s going to learn. This young man’s potential is through the roof, but it’s still a process.”
NFL predictions aren’t giving the Jets much chance of heading to the playoffs. However, it wouldn’t be beyond the realm of possibility for the Jets to play postseason football. They have the ability to make a statement after years of disappointment and strange things are happening in world sport, so why not add the Jets to the list?
To Win the AFC East (+1600)
Bettors get astronomical odds for the Jets to win the AFC East and it’s tough to make a case for that to happen.
It’s not so much because the Jets are awful, because the potential is there. It’s more because the Buffalo Bills are red-hot and the Patriots rarely produce two disappointing seasons in a row.
There could also be improvement from Miami, so it would take a mammoth effort for the Jets to win the division, despite each team having a theoretical 25 percent chance to win.
The Jets play their division rivals only once in the first six weeks, which comes against the Patriots in Week Two. If they can establish a winning record heading into the second half of the season, which features four divisional games, the Jets could cause a shock.
The first few weeks are there for the taking. They face the Carolina Panthers, Patriots, Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans and Atlanta Falcons. The Jets need a fast start to make a fool of the NFL division odds.
To Win the AFC (+6600)
According to the NFL conference odds, the Jets have about a three percent chance of winning the AFC.
We have done our best to give the Jets credit and we believe the pieces are there to have a winning record, but winning the AFC could be a step too far.
It’s packed with high-quality teams and teams that have a realistic chance of posting a 14-3 record, which the Jets have very little chance of achieving.
The best the Jets could hope for is a 10-7 record, which would be considered a huge success after winning two games in 2020. A more realistic record is 5-12 or 6-11, which is still an improvement on last season.
Bettors get generous odds of +6600. Only the Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit Lions are paying more to win their conference (+7500), so it looks out of reach for the Jets, at least according to the online sportsbook. They would need to take down the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens.
To Win the Super Bowl (+12500)
It comes as no surprise to see the Jets paying +12500 to win the Super Bowl, given their odds of winning the AFC. Super Bowl odds can often provide bettors with excellent value, but we would need at least +15000 to entertain the Jets.
We’re sure there have been bigger upsets in the past, but the Jets winning Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium would be close to unfathomable. Statistics show the Jets have less than a one percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.
We still don’t even know if they’re wanting to win, as tanking has never been so popular in American sports. We sincerely hope the Jets try to win, as we’re keen to see how they perform with the new additions to the roster.
Super Bowl betting markets are unlikely to feature the Jets next February.
