Who Will Win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? Joe Burrow or Sam Darnold?

Patrick Mahomes realizing if the Chiefs lose to the Broncos on purpose, Joe Burrow and the Bengals are out of the playoffs. pic.twitter.com/69sHg7F4hW

— At The Buzzer (@AtTheBuzzer1) December 29, 2024

While Burrow leads the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns, Darnold’s redemption arc is more like that “straight-to-streaming” sequel no one asked for. Let’s dive into the NFL odds, stats, and predictions for this year’s award.

Joe Burrow or Sam Darnold: Who Will Win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?

Joe Burrow: The Best QB in the NFL on Paper

Joe Burrow didn’t just come back this season—he came back like a God mode code on Madden. After suffering a torn wrist ligament last year that tanked his season and the Bengals’ playoff hopes, Burrow returned with a vengeance. He currently leads the league in passing yards (4,918) and touchdowns (43), dragging a mediocre Bengals squad to a 9-8 record and keeping their playoff dreams alive way longer than they deserved.

Sure, the Bengals didn’t make the playoffs, but Burrow ensured every opposing defense had a bad time playing them. Let’s not forget the NFL sent voters a memo this year to emphasize actual adversity from injury after they were unhappy with Joe Flacco winning in 2023.

Burrow tore a ligament, not his ego, and still managed to ball out. He’s my NFL prediction to hoist the hardware at the end of the year,

Why He Wins:

• Leading the NFL in two major passing categories.
• Played through a patchwork offensive line that looks like a Craigslist ad gone wrong.
• If voters care about the “spirit” of the award, Burrow’s wrist injury is a textbook example.
• He’d be a frontrunner for the MVP if the Bengals finished with more wins.

Why He Might Lose:

• The Bengals’ failure to reach the playoffs.
• Voters forget the memo and opt for the shiny new thing: Sam Darnold.

Sam Darnold: The “Comeback” Nobody Saw Coming

Sam Darnold is the Ted Lasso of NFL quarterbacks—a feel-good story that somehow won over everyone. After years of mediocrity, Darnold found his groove in Minnesota. Under head coach Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings QB posted career highs in passer rating (102.5) and touchdowns (35), leading his team to a 14-3 record and finishing 2nd in the NFC North.

The problem? Darnold isn’t coming back from anything. Unless “being bad at football” counts as adversity. Personally, I like his story arc, just as I liked Flacco winning in 2023. But, the league has clarified what kind of players should be winning this award, and Darnold doesn’t qualify in their eyes.

Why He Wins:

• Career-best numbers and a team that actually made the playoffs. (You can check their NFL playoffs betting lines here.)
• Voters who confuse “most improved” with “comeback.”

Why He Shouldn’t Win:

• The NFL’s memo explicitly states this award is for overcoming physical injury or illness.
• He’s essentially “returning” from being benched, not broken.

Burrow the “Safe” Bet

If the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award is about overcoming real adversity, this race shouldn’t even be close. Joe Burrow came back from a legit injury and put up MVP-level numbers. Sam Darnold? Cool story, but this isn’t the “Participation Trophy Player of the Year” award.

BetUS Sportsbook had Burrow as the clear betting favorite for a reason. He’s done everything short of walking on water to prove he’s the league’s comeback king. If Darnold somehow pulls off the upset, we might need a third NFL memo.

Question Of The Day