NFL Predictions: Who is Best Bet to Lead League in Rushing Yards?
- With the running back position evolving, predicting who will lead the league in rushing yards is hard.
- Having led the league in rushing yards last season, Christian McCaffrey of the 49ers is the clear favorite.
- Many longshot betting options outside of McCaffrey could lead the league in rushing yards, making this prop very valuable.
Running back is one of the most critical positions in football, but it is undervalued. Although they have been asked to do more in the passing game, with so much talent at the position, teams are hesitant to give massive contracts to the elite running backs. However, some stand above the rest, with NFL odds favoring them to lead the league in rushing yards.
This list will feature the top running backs in the league as they are the favorites to lead the NFL in rushing yards. Because of injuries and the fact that running backs have steep drop-offs in production, being the leader in rushing yards every season can be challenging to predict.
Top Picks to Lead NFL in Rushing Yards
McCaffrey Clear Betting Favorite
Last season’s rushing leader, Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers, is favored to do it again. His NFL line is set at +275 to lead the league in rushing yards. It is hard to argue against McCaffrey being the best running back in the league after rushing for 1,459 yards last season and winning Offensive Player of the Year. He also does a lot as a receiver out of the backfield.
Swing pass. Hurdle. CMC TD 🐰 @CMC_22
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If it wasn’t for injuries, McCaffrey may have led the league in rushing yards earlier in his career, but that has consistently held him back. Last season was the second time McCaffrey led the league in touches, total yards and total touchdowns, also doing it in 2019.
A big reason why McCaffrey is favored to lead the league in rushing again is because of how much San Francisco’s offense runs through him. He has become the offense’s backbone and will be that again in 2024. However, injuries could be an issue again – he already has a calf injury in the preseason.
Colts RB Taylor Among Top Contenders
The next running back that NFL betting has favored to lead the league in rushing yards is Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts, with his line set at +600. Taylor is an obvious choice as he is one of three names on this list that has already won a rushing title.
In 2021, Taylor led the NFL in rushing yards, going off for 1,811. He would not be able to repeat in 2022 as injuries limited him to only 11 games in 2022, getting injured. Then, in 2023, it took some time for Taylor to get in the swing of things after an offseason in which he held out.
Taylor never fully returned to form last season. Once again, he dealt with injuries and played in just 10 games. There are also more concerns about his chances of leading the league in rushing yards with a running quarterback in Anthony Richardson in the backfield.
That is a similar issue for Saquon Barkley (+650). He signed with the Philadelphia Eagles on a three-year deal worth $37.75 million, leaving the team that drafted him. With a terrible offensive line on the New York Giants, Barkley still managed three 1,000-yard seasons in six years. However, he did play 13 games or fewer three times, having dealt with injuries.
Jalen Hurts to Saquon Barkley 👀
(🎥 @Eagles)
pic.twitter.com/VpWDbsQCwg— PFF (@PFF) August 13, 2024
The move to the Eagles could do wonders for Barkley, despite sharing the backfield with another quarterback who likes to run in Jalen Hurts. Barkley now has a chance to run behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. Given that he had 962 yards last season in 14 games and averaged 4.3 yards per carry throughout his career with terrible offensive lines, he should put up insane numbers on the Eagles.
Breece Hall of the New York Jets is another running back with solid odds of leading the NFL in rushing yards at +800. However, that is a surprise. In his rookie season, 2022, it looked like Hall would take the league by storm, but an injury ended that early. Hall looked good in the second half of last season after a slow start, rushing for 994 yards. Now, with Aaron Rodgers healthy for 2024, the Jets might move away from running the ball to focus on the passing game.
Value Picks Among Betting Longshots
Out of the three longer shots, according to NFL predictions, Derrick Henry is the oldest and the only one to have led the league in rushing before. He did it in back-to-back seasons (2019 and 2020), once rushing for 2,027 yards. His line is set at +1000 to get his third rushing title.
However, despite leading the league in rushing attempts in the last two seasons, Henry has been second in yards twice. He ran for 1,538 yards in 2022 and 1,167 last season. Furthermore, he is now with the Baltimore Ravens, signing for two years and $16 million. Playing alongside quarterback Lamar Jackson, one of the best running quarterbacks, should help take some workload off Henry, but this could lead to fewer rushing yards.
How will Bijan Robinson do in year 2?
He is:
+800 to have the most rush yards
+1000 to have the most combined TDs
+1500 to be the OPOY— Bovada (@BovadaOfficial) August 19, 2024
Then there is Bijan Robinson, who looked impressive in his rookie season, but the Atlanta Falcons need to give him the ball more. As the eighth overall pick in 2023, he ranked 19th in rushing attempts, which led to 976 yards. He should be given more touches, and the new coaching staff will try to make that happen. If that happens, his line at +1100 to lead the league in rushing yards could be a steal.
Finally, Kyren Williams of the Los Angeles Rams was third in the league in rushing yards last season and has his odds set at +1200 to jump up two more spots in 2024. He finished the season with 1,144 yards, which is saying something since he only played in 12 games. He did lead the NFL in yards per game (95.3). When healthy, it is clear Williams can put up numbers. He just needs to stay in the field.
Bijan Robinson +1100
There are a lot of good running backs on this list, but it is hard not to back Bijan Robinson in NFL picks to lead the league in rushing yards. It almost seems like a perfect storm for him as the Falcons now have an upgrade at quarterback, so opposing defenses can’t pack the line of scrimmage. Plus, all the reports show that the offense will go through him, and he will get the ball in many different ways.
Bet On NFL Rushing Yards Here!
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
Questions of the Day
Who has the best bet of leading the NFL in rushing yards?
Bijan Robinson proved he is a talented player after one season in the league. The Falcons will try to get the ball to him a lot, which should lead to a big season and possibly lead the league in rushing.
