The NFL regular season is less than a week away! If that does not excite you, then you should probably stop reading this article. For the rest of us, let’s take a look at an early look at the AFC Preseason Playoff Preview, including predictions.
The NFL announced in March that there will be an additional playoff team in each conference in the playoffs following the 2020 regular season. That means there will be 14 teams in this season’s playoff. The expanded playoff format means that only the top seed in each conference will get a first-round bye. The previous playoff format, which was put in place in 1990, awarded first-round byes to the top two teams in each conference.
If the season goes to plan, the NFL will have six playoff games on Wild-Card Weekend. Three games on Jan. 9, and, another three games on Jan.10. The new playoff format was part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement that was voted upon and agreed to by NFL players. It was later approved by at least 75% of the owners.
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Starting with the No.1 seed and working our way through the divisional winners and continuing into the three Wild-ard teams.
AFC Preseason Playoff Preview
No. 1 Baltimore Ravens (13-3)
- 2019 Record: 14-2
- 2020 Strength of schedule opp. win-loss projection: .494 T-3 easiest
- 2020 Projected regular-season win total: 11½
- Odds to make the playoffs: -750
The Ravens are coming off a season in which they had the best record in the NFL. They played in a division that had horrible quarterback play, other than their MVP Lamar Jackson. Ben Roethlisberger is expected to be fully healthy on a good Steelers team that managed to go 8-8 without him. The Browns, who handed the Ravens one of their two losses (40-25) in Baltimore last season, are expected to take a step forward this season (same old story for the Browns). The Ravens should be able to defend their AFC North title, but there seems to be a lot more competition.
They get the No. 1 spot due to the fact that they have the Chiefs at home. If they can win that game, they will own the tie-breaker between the teams.
No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
- 2019 Record: 12-4
- 2020 Strength of schedule opp. win-loss projection: .500 T-8
- 2020 Projected regular-season win total: 11½
- Odds to make the playoffs: -1200
The Chiefs’ organization decided it would do everything to keep the Super Bowl LIV-winning team basically intact for this upcoming season. Front-man QB Patrick Mahomes is set to get his team back to the playoffs with another division title. The Chiefs have one of the toughest road schedules in the NFL (Ravens, Bills, Bucs, Saints). Their defense will have to show up in big games and be able to stop the run. They gave up the fourth most yard per carry a year ago.
No. 3 Tennessee Titans (10-6)
- 2019 Record: 9-7
- 2020 Strength of schedule opp. win-loss projection: .488 2nd
- 2020 Projected regular-season win total: 8½
- Odds to make the playoffs: -150
Last season, the Titans shocked the sports world in the playoffs by pulling off upsets two straight weeks against the Patriots and Ravens. The Titans are one of the teams that is hard to predict. They were one of the best teams in the second half of the season. QB Ryan Tannehill played incredibly well after an average seven-year career in Miami. Which Tannehill will show up this year? Even if Tannehill regresses to an average QB the Titans have the skill around him on offense to compete each week.
Defensively, the Titans ranked in the bottom half of the league in many passing statistics last season. They ranked 21st in passing yards allowed, and 20th in completion percentage. They lost cornerback Logan Ryan to the New York Giants via free agency, and although they signed Johnathan Joseph, the loss of Ryan will be felt. The Titans recently signed Jadeveon Clowney to help make their defense a championship-caliber squad.
No. 4 Buffalo Bills (10-6)
- 2019 Record: 10-6
- 2020 Strength of schedule opp. win-loss projection: .516 T-22
- 2020 Projected regular-season win total: 9
- Odds to make the playoffs: -180
In a year with so much uncertainty and change, Buffalo ranks No. 1 in a stat that measures continuity. The Bills have a total of 88% snaps returning from last season, and an impressive 95.4% on offense. GM Brandon Beane flipped his team’s roster when he arrived in 2017 and has built a playoff contender for 2020. The Bills will need QB Josh Allen to take the next step in his progression to obtain a 10-6 record for the second straight year.
There has been nothing consistent about the NFL other than the Patriots winning the AFC East. Although on paper the Patriots got worse, they are still the Patriots and they have dominated the AFC East for the past two decades. Miami in its second season under coach Brian Flores and should get better after spending the most money by any NFL team ($123.5 million) in free agency. The AFC East is for the taking and most experts expect the Bills to take it.
No. 5 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
- 2019 Record: 8-8
- 2020 Strength of schedule win-loss projection: .500 T-8
- 2020 Projected regular-season win total: 9½
- Odds to make the playoffs: -140
Last year’s team would have made the playoffs in this new playoff format. Rothlisberger sat most of las season after getting his elbow repaired. This year they have him back on a high-octane offense, which should prove hard to stop for most opponents. It should not be surprising to see them win two or three more games.
They were still competitive last season because of their elite defense. They had a No. 1 ranked pass rush led by T.J. Watt. They ranked third in pass yards allowed with 3,113, and second with 20 interceptions. The Steelers have been a perennial playoff contender for the past two decades and have made it to the postseason eight times under head coach Mike Tomlin.
No. 6 Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
- 2019 Record: 7-9
- 2020 Strength of schedule win-loss projection: .480 1st
- 2020 Projected regular-season win total: 9
- Odds to make the playoffs: -200
The Colts signed QB Philip Rivers to reunite him with coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni. The three were together for three seasons in San Diego. In 2013, when Reich was brought into San Diego as a quarterbacks coach, Rivers completed 378-of-544 pass attempts for 4,478 yards with 32 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. He led the NFL in completion percentage (69.5), fifth in yards per pass attempt (8.2), fourth in passer rating (105.5), and he was named the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year.
The Colts added All-Pro DE DeForest Buckner to a defense that played well last year. The Colts made a lot of smart moves this offseason. ESPN writer Bill Barnwell ranked the Colts fourth on his Ranking 2020 offseasons for all 32 NFL teams. The Colts have the easiest schedule when looking at projected wins of their opponents. They only play one 2019 playoff team in the first half. This could lead to a nice start in which the Colts can build confidence and momentum for the second half.
No. 7 New England Patriots (9-7)
- 2019 Record: 12-4
- 2020 Strength of schedule win-loss projection: .514 T-20
- 2020 Projected regular-season win total: 9
- Odds to make the playoffs: -175
The Patriots lost the G.O.A.T. Tom Brady this offseason and had eight players choose to not play due to COVID-19. It has not been the prettiest offseason for the Patriots, which is nothing new in New England. Coach Bill Belichick has a reputation for letting key players walk and making household names out of guys no one has heard of. Belichick & Co. are committed to run the ball and design smart passing plays. Cam Newton can do both better than most other quarterbacks in the league.
The Patriots drafted two tight ends in the third round of this year’s draft. They re-signed Devin McCourty to keep their dominant secondary together. They also franchised guard Joe Thuney in an attempt to make sure they can run the football. People are counting out the Pats this year, which is not a good idea for the rest of the league. The Patriots have some things to prove without Brady. Watch out for MVP QB Newton and the Pats this postseason.
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