AFC South NFL Props: Best Parlay Bets This Week in Lone Matchup
With the AFC South featuring one team either not on bye or having already played this week (Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday night), we’re going to take a slightly different approach to the prop bets here. While we’ll still pinpoint the one top prop of the week, it’ll go a bit deeper into the player prop parlay world, where there’s a mixture of more “realistic” plays, along with a long-shot parlay or two based on the NFL latest lines.
Just to note, since it’s only the Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts on this slate, we’ll cover picks from the Browns side also.
Jerome Ford Finds the End Zone
While Deshaun Watson’s shoulder is still not 100% it does appear he’ll suit up this week after taking first-team practice reps and getting in a full practice this week. In terms of how effective he’ll be, that’s a whole different question, but since the Browns have been cautious with him, you have to assume that he’s at least quite a bit further along than the past two weeks.
Even still, with Kareem Hunt banged up also heading into this game, and the Colts having allowed seven rushing touchdowns this season, tied for the third most in the NFL, it looks like a great spot for a Jerome Ford touchdown. I’m not expecting Ford to run wild, but I think he’ll score once and we get the odds here at plus money.
Pick: Jerome Ford anytime TD scorer +100
Gardner Minshew-Michael Pittman Connection Keeps Trucking Along
This matchup for both Gardner Minshew and Micheal Pittman is brutally tough, as the Browns have allowed 719 passing yards and four touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season. They’ve also managed to hold wide receivers to a total of 471 yards as well. But here’s a quick breakdown of Pittman’s numbers from the two games Minshew started, along with the Houston Texans matchup when he played the bulk of the game
- vs. Texans: 8 catches, 56 yards
- vs. Ravens: 9 catches, 77 yards
- vs. Jaguars: 9 catches, 109 yards
There’s no question Pittman is Minshew’s favorite target, and even if the Browns defense is a nightmare matchup, seeing an over/under for receiving yards of just 52.5 for Pittman is more than appealing.
Pick: Michael Pittman over 52.5 receiving yards (-114)
Mildly Terrifying Bet against Jonathan Taylor
There’s no question that Jonathan Taylor is still knocking off the rust in his return, as he’s totaled 14 attempts for 37 yards in two games.A matchup with the Browns, who have given up the third-fewest rushing yards this season to running backs at 333 (and only one touchdown) is a daunting outlook for Taylor.
Although there’s an obvious risk with betting against Taylor, who has massive breakout potential, I’m still taking him to go under on his rushing yards. A brutal matchup, he hasn’t reverted to form yet and the fact the Colts could be playing from behind make this a play worth targeting. Tack on the fact that his current over/under for yardage is higher than his total from the past two games, and it’s enough to sell me.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor under 43.5 rushing yards (-113)
AFC South Flier Bet of the Week
Hear me out before believing that this pick is just being pulled out of a hat of random bets. Elijah Moore hasn’t scored a touchdown all season. But in the last game Watso played prior to sitting out due to the shoulder injury, Moore was targeted nine times and finished with nine catches for 49 yards. It’s obvious the rapport between these two has picked up and Moore could be Watson’s go-to target if he’s not healthy enough to sling 50-yard passes with ease.
There’s no question this is the longest shot on the board, and it can’t be recommended enough to tread lightly. But if you want a good sweat to start this game, roll it on Moore to find the end zone as the first touchdown scorer at +1500.
Longshot AFC South Pick of the Week: Elijah Moore first TD scorer (+1500)
Big Odds Player Prop Parlay
If you weren’t staring in confusion at the idea of Moore as the first TD scorer, this one should do the trick. To be clear and repeat it for the safety all involved, the phrase “tread lightly” can’t be said enough. This type of parlay is great to put together, but incredibly hard to hit. On that note, let’s dive into it.
The Browns defense has been exceptional, and I think this is going to be a brutal spot for the Colts offensively. Although I do think they’ll be playing from behind and like the idea of riding the Minshew-Pittman connection, I can’t see them clearing this team total of 18.5 points, so it was added to the mix.
And speaking of Pittman, while he’s found the end zone just once this season, there’s no question that he’s Minshew’s favorite target. I’ll happily take him at those odds in a parlay like this to score, even if it’s a garbage-time touchdown.
The Moore pick comes with plenty of sweat still (in case the above wasn’t enough). But the connection he showed with Watson in the last game the two played together can’t be ignored. If he doesn’t score first, I’ll take the full game sweat to see if he can score here and snap the early-season skid.
AFC South Player Prop Parlay of the Week: +2800
- Elijah Moore anytime TD scorer (+300)
- Michael Pittman anytime TD scorer (+229)
- Colts team total under 18.5 points
Questions of the Day
What is the best player vs. player prop bet for Week 7 AFC South?
Jerome Ford to have more rushing yards than Zack Moss. The odds aren’t pretty, and while the Colts were playing from behind last week, Moss saw his rushing attempts drop from the high-teens/low-20s down to seven, which was one less than Jonathan Taylor. The Colts are going to try to keep getting Taylor more in the mix, which should mean less touches for Moss.
What's the top NFL player prop for Week 7?
In the AFC South, it would be Michael Pittman to go over 52.5 receiving yards. The Browns defense has been stellar, but Gardner Minshew has targeted Pittman constantly when under center, a trend that will continue this week.
