AFC South Prop Bet Predictions for NFL Week 12: Rolling with C.J. Stroud & Company
Week 12 of NFL action provides a pivotal AFC South matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans. This is one of the most interesting matchups for gameday this week on Sunday, but it also provides a number of solid prop betting angles.
We’ll kick off this week’s AFC South prop betting picks with a few Texans plays and then jump to one of the top wide receiver spots of the week and a favorite name for my weekly targets.
Here’s a look at some NFL odds to consider!
C.J. Stroud Keeps Home Passing TD Run Rolling
After taking note of C.J. Stroud’s stellar home mark of multiple passing touchdown games previously, the stretch extended to five games last week against the Arizona Cardinals. While Stroud did throw three interceptions in that game, he’s now thrown two or more touchdowns at home in five consecutive games.
That stretch should continue against a Jaguars defense that’s allowed 16 passes touchdowns and faces a Houston Texans passing attack coming in while hitting an impressive stride. I love the spot here to get Stroud over 1½ touchdown passes at just -122.
NFL Pick: C.J. Stroud over 1½ passing touchdowns (-122)
Targeting Stroud’s Top Weapons
Texans wide receiver Tank Dell has officially arrived. The rookie third-round pick has caught at least six passes in three consecutive games, clearing 114 yards in two of those while catching four touchdown passes over this stretch. He’s also seen double-digit targets in those games, a trend that should continue.
Dell is just one of the targets worth considering. The Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends, which should bode well for Dalton Schultz, who comes into this game with an over/under for receiving yards set at just 39½. I also like the target play of Schultz to catch a touchdown with odds of +200, but we’ll tack that one on as a bonus.
Lastly, Nico Collins has benefited in a big way from Stroud’s stellar home play, as he’s replicated the success when playing in front of the fans in Houston. While Collins has an over/under of 55½ yards, he totaled 65 last week, 54, and one touchdown the week before, and then in the three other home games this season, has easily topped 56 yards, going for 80-plus in every other matchup.
If you want to ride the offensive wave for the Texans, parlaying all three gives out solid odds of +625, but I’d recommend selecting your favorite two and parlaying with the over 1½ passing touchdowns for Stroud.
NFL Pick No. 1: Tank Dell over 60½ receiving yards (-118)
NFL Pick No. 2: Dalton Schultz over 39½ receiving yards (-118)
NFL Pick No. 3: Nico Collins over 55½ receiving yards (-113)
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Back to the Well with Michael Pittman in Strong Matchup
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman is a name I’ve targeted often with Gardner Minshew under center. He sees a consistently high volume of targets with Minshew and is in a great position to be able to top his over/under for yardage here against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, especially when factoring in how the matchup lines up.
The Bucs have been exceptional against the opposing run, and I think that could lead to more work for Pittman and the passing game, so his over/under for yards set at 70½ is one of the highest we’ve seen, but it’s more than attainable. The Buccaneers have allowed the third-most yards to opposing wide receivers this season, and this sets up nicely for a big week for Pittman.
NFL Pick: Michael Pittman over 70½ receiving yards (-113)
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Questions of the Day
Which AFC quarterback will throw for the most passing yards in Week 12?
I’m riding with C.J. Stroud here, who has been exceptional at home.
Which wide receiver from AFC South could score the most touchdowns in Week 12?
I’ll go with Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell, who has a solid matchup and has shown massive upside over the past three games.
