AFC West Picks: Chargers ATS Best Bet on NFL Week 14

3 Best Week 14 Picks in AFC West

1. Bet Buccaneers vs Raiders Over in ‘Pirate Bowl’

While we’re on the Chiefs, we can’t ignore how the Raiders lost that Black Friday game in such awful fashion. We get it, Las Vegas. You’re tanking to draft Shedeur Sanders first overall. But y’all just wasted some great effort from Brock Bowers and the offense. That was no fluke as the Raiders have weapons and can continue to put up points against Tampa Bay.

It’s scary to think that Brock Bowers is going to eventually get a QB upgrade

This man is the best rookie TE of ALL-TIME and is arguably the best TE in the league this year pic.twitter.com/wDVGcAgQnn

— Skrip (@P2WFantasy) November 29, 2024

Per Raiders vs Buccaneers betting tips, Tambay Bay is ranked 26th in scoring defense (24.7 points allowed per game) and has given up 23+ points in seven of its last eight games. Las Vegas scores the sixth-fewest points (18.6) but will move the ball against a team that has too many miscommunications on defense.

Aidan O’Connell balled out against Kansas City and can do the same against Tampa Bay, which ranks below average in most passing defensive metrics. We’re not advocating for the Raiders to pull off an upset. We just need them to score 20+ points so the total could go over 45½ points. That’s the best NFL prediction in this spot.

Bet This Pick: Raiders vs Buccaneers Over 45½

2. Back Chargers to Cover Spread vs Chiefs

We expect Los Angeles to give the Chiefs another run of their money. Betting against the spread is a sound choice at +4. We thought of betting on the Chargers straight-up. But they are only 2-3 in games decided by seven points or fewer and have injuries on offense. That makes it difficult to trust them for the outright upset.

But the Chiefs are also banged up. Slowly but surely, the defense has been giving up yards or points. They gave up 434 yards against Las Vegas and would have lost that game had it not been for three missed field goals and a game-losing fumble.

Per Chiefs vs Chargers betting trends, Kansas City has given up 24+ points in three of its last five games. It lost one to Buffalo, needed overtime to beat Tampa Bay and needed a last-second field goal to edge Carolina.

While the Chargers have struggled in games decided by seven points or fewer, we only need them to cover four points. That’s something they can do to cash our NFL expert picks against the spread.

Bet This Pick: Los Angeles Chargers +4 (-110)

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3. Chargers Go Up on Chiefs Early Pick

The Chargers could beat the Chiefs in the first half. Los Angeles is one of the strongest first-half teams while the Chiefs are not as great. The underdogs are giving up just four points per first half and are +10.2 on average as visitors. In comparison, Kansas City allows 9.5 points as a host and is only +2.

TARHEEB STILL @CHARGERS PICK-6.

📺: #LACvsATL on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/T3CodECkpD

— NFL (@NFL) December 1, 2024

Harbaugh may be an “offensive” coach but he’s turned the Chargers into one of the best defenses. They are +11 in turnover differential and make it difficult for opponents to get into a rhythm. The Chiefs win games by narrow margins because they have struggled to get flowing offensively.

Kansas City leads the NFL in third-down conversion rate (51.8%) but is just 24th in red-zone touchdown efficiency (52.1%). The Chargers are riding high from another big win and run into Kansas City with something to prove. Our bet online is on the Chargers for the first-half moneyline.

Bet This Pick: 1H Los Angeles Chargers ML +138

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets

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