AFC West Prop Picks: Make Pacheco First TD Scorer in Week 15

· Dec 13 - 5 minutes read

We look at the AFC West prop odds for Sunday’s games.
The Kansas City Chiefs could have plenty of player prop value when they visit the Cleveland Browns.
Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix has thrown for nine touchdowns in the last four games.

Despite boasting three teams currently in playoff position, the AFC West has combined for the second-fewest points out of eight NFL divisions.

AFC West Prop Picks: Make Pacheco First TD Scorer in Week 15 — Bo Nix #10 of the Denver Broncos | Matthew Stockman/Getty Images/AFP

That makes choosing your NFL player props a little more difficult every week, but we think the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos could offer several options for bettors on Sunday. The Chiefs visit struggling Cleveland and the Broncos host Indianapolis.

Kansas City (12-1) owns the best record in the NFL and is due to put up some points after managing just 19 in each of the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Denver has won three in a row while totaling 108 points.

The Los Angeles Chargers are a tough call with the status of quarterback Justin Herbert’s ankle injury. Check late NFL news before you make a prop bet on the Chargers’ home game versus Tampa Bay.

The Las Vegas Raiders host an angry Atlanta Falcons team on Monday. The Raiders have lost nine in a row and could be down to their third-string quarterback.

Top 3 Week 15 AFC West Prop Betting Tips

1. Kelce, Pacheco Value Prop Picks for Chiefs

Kansas City’s Travis Kelce has had a strange campaign in 2024. The All-Pro tight end owns only two touchdowns, but is on pace for his fourth 100-reception season.

Kelce has been kept off the scoreboard the past four games, but he is overdue to have a big afternoon in chilly Cleveland on Sunday. One touchdown in a Chiefs win gives you +194 odds, and if Kelce scores first, you get a whopping +750 NFL prop odds.

THE ALL-TIME LEADING CHIEFS TOUCHDOWN RECEVIER… THAT WILL GIVE YOU SOMETHING TO SING ABOUT – Kevin Harlan on Travis Kelce TD pic.twitter.com/a0uUmPe1Qo

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 10, 2024

Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco should be even healthier in his third game back from injury after averaging almost five yards per carry in the first two. With former Brown Kareen Hunt taking some of the carries, Pacheco should be fresh and could be your best player prop for Sunday.0

We also like quarterback Patrick Mahomes to connect with rookie Xavier Worthy for a score (+334 with a win) if you want to go deeper..

Bet Kelce to score at least once in a win (+194) and Pacheco to get into the end zone first (+550) when you bet online.

PICK: Isaiah Pacheco First TD Scorer (+550)

Touchdown Profits! Bet $200, Get $450 Bonus on first time deposit.

2. Bet Broncos Carry Over Momentum

Denver, which struggled on both sides of the ball last season, is suddenly one of the hottest teams in the league.

Rookie Bo Nix is in charge of the Broncos offense and has a number of the receivers to look to, led by Courtland Sutton. The 29-year-old is on pace for his second 1,000-yard receiving season with 846 through 13 games. He has been especially good the last six contests.

Courtland Sutton has six-straight games with 6+ catches.

That’s the longest streak in the NFL.

— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) December 12, 2024

Per Colts vs Broncos betting tips, Indianapolis is fourth from the bottom in yards-against per game, so expect Denver to get on the board first. The Broncos are not settling for field goals anymore, so we think they take a 7-0 lead. Denver is 6-0 as a favorite this season and should improve on that.

Bet Denver scores first with a touchdown (+180). If you want to build an NFL prop parlay, take Sutton 80+ yards in a Broncos win (+199).

PICK: First Scoring Play of Game – Broncos TD (+180)

3. Chargers Receivers Good Prop Options

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can put up a lot of points through the air, but they give up plenty as well.

Justin Herbert could be ready to go for Los Angeles on Sunday, but even if backup Taylor Heinicke has to go, the Chargers should have success passing against Tampa Bay. Per Buccaneers vs Chargers stats, Tampa Bay is 30th in the league in passing defense.

Herbert has 14 touchdown passes and just one interception. Without leading rusher J.K. Dobbins (knee), expect the passing attack to be a little more prominent in the Los Angeles game plan and that should be the focus of your NFL game prop strategy.

Quentin Johnston has had too many drops this season, but leads the team with seven receiving touchdowns (one last week). Ladd McConkey (team best 815 receiving yards) could return from knee and shoulder injuries after missing last week’s game while Joshua Palmer had nine targets in that contest.

Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh on Quentin Johnston’s contested catches vs. KC: “I’ve seen his confidence, his resolve, everything has been up there high. He’s been ready to go every week. Very durable player, very strong player, very productive player.”

— Alex Insdorf (@alexinsdorf99) December 11, 2024

Bet Johnston to score at least once (+179). If you don’t like the speedy former first-round pick you can try a healthy McConkey (+150) or Palmer (+170) for your NFL prop parlay.

PICK: Quentin Johnson Anytime Touchdown (+179)