AFC West TD Props: Dobbins, Bowers Best Bets to Score in Week 9

With Dobbins leading the Los Angeles Chargers’ rushing attack and Bowers emerging as a game-changing tight end for the Las Vegas Raiders, both players are in favorable matchups this Sunday. For anyone looking at touchdown props, these two offer standout value with compelling stats to back them up.

Here’s why both players are primed to find the end zone — and why their NFL lines offer the value bettors seek.

Top 2 AFC West Touchdown Props

1. Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins (+450) First TD Scorer

J.K. Dobbins to score the first touchdown at +450 NFL odds is a valuable pick in a matchup where the Chargers’ offense could lean heavily on the run game, especially with key receivers like Quentin Johnston, Will Dissly and Ladd McConkey all questionable.

Dobbins has already been a scoring machine, hitting an anytime touchdown in four of his first seven games, and he’s coming off his first opening-score touchdown in Week 8. With Dobbins emerging as one of the league’s most efficient rushers, averaging 74.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (89th percentile), he’s positioned to be a focal point against the Browns’ run defense.

This is what makes JK Dobbins special
The man is just hard to take down 😤 pic.twitter.com/RTb6DBtPkr

— No Limit Bolts (@nolimitbolts) October 31, 2024

While Cleveland has done reasonably well defending the run with an adjusted yards-per-carry of just 4.86 (ranking them 24th in the league), the Browns have still allowed seven rushing TDs to opposing backs.

This Chargers vs Browns betting trend could bode well for Dobbins’ chances, particularly given his role in the LA offense, where he’s taken on 59.1% of the running game workload, placing him in the 88th percentile for rush attempts among RBs.

The game script also projects high play volume (135.1 plays), likely giving Dobbins more opportunities early to make his mark. His projected 19.8 carries this week sits in the 98th percentile among backs, signaling that the Chargers could lean into their run game, especially if limited passing options restrict their typical offensive spread.

With the Chargers striking first in five of seven games this season, Dobbins is well-suited to capitalize on this NFL prediction and find the end zone as the game opener.

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2. Raiders TE Brock Bowers (+190) Anytime TD Scorer

Rookie Brock Bowers at +190 to score a touchdown against the Bengals is a worthy prop, especially with his impressive rookie season stats and the favorable matchup.

The No. 13 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Bowers came in with high expectations as one of the most talented tight end prospects in recent memory — and he’s delivering. Entering Week 9 as the NFL leader with 52 receptions through eight games, he’s racked up 535 receiving yards, putting him at the top of the league among tight ends.

This game, expected to be high-scoring according to the online betting total, could offer plenty of passing opportunities for the Raiders, who are projected to play from behind. Last week, we saw how crucial Bowers can be to the Raiders’ offense: In the first half, when he was targeted heavily, the offense thrived.

#Raiders Brock Bowers is on pace to break #Rams Puka Nacua’s rookie receiving record. #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/Eh8CExtapM

— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) October 31, 2024

However, the offense lost its rhythm when they moved away from him in the second half — due partly to coverage from top Chiefs corner Trent McDuffie. Bowers still caught all five of his targets for 58 yards but missed out on the end zone, something he’ll be eager to correct against a Bengals defense that has given up four touchdowns to tight ends, a league-high rate.

Cincinnati’s defense isn’t known for locking down tight ends, ranking in the top 10 for most yardage allowed. The Bengals also struggled to stop the run, but the Raiders’ historically ineffective ground game means they’re likely to rely more on the pass.

All signs point to Bowers being a key target, especially in the red zone, as the Raiders aim to exploit Cincinnati’s weaknesses in coverage. This week might finally be his breakout moment to add a touchdown to his standout rookie campaign for your NFL picks.

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Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets