The bookmakers love to set traps for NFL bettors to fall into and lose money as a result. We aim to outsmart the books and spot these traps before they can snare us. The matchups in Week 4 are actually quite tight, leaving little meat on the bone for an NFL trap article. However, after some searching, I found one game perfect for NFL picks predictions on a potential trap.
Can Commanders Again Hand Eagles First Loss?
We all remember what happened the last time the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders met. Even if you don’t, every player on the Eagles remembers that day well. The Eagles came into the Week 10 game at 8-0 for the first time in franchise history and had their sights set on a perfect season.
Instead of leaving 9-0, the Commanders handed their division rivals a 32-21 loss. Even worse, it happened in Philly. Now, the Commanders return to the scene of the crime to try and hand the Eagles their first loss of the season for the second year in a row.
On paper, the sportsbooks are right in setting the NFL spread at -8½ as this is a mismatch between the Eagles and Commanders. But I don’t believe it’s as wide as the spread suggests, and last season was proof that even a superior Eagles team could lose to a smartly coached game by the Commanders.
Here’s the thing: I don’t believe that the Commanders are good enough to pull off another upset victory on the road in Philly. It would be a welcome and hilarious outcome as a Giants fan, but even with the NFL odds at +320, I don’t see value in a moneyline play for Washington.
I don’t think the spread is the right way to go either, at least not the current line. Instead, I want to adjust the odds to make the Eagles less favored at (-5.5 ish). This lowers the chances for Washington but raises the odds for us.
The Eagles’ defense is weak against the pass, and while I don’t expect Sam Howell to go all Peyton Manning, he could reach Eli Manning heights against Philly. The Eagles rank 29th in passes allowed per game and 25th in passing yards.
The Eagles’ defense is built to stop the run, but the Commanders rarely run the ball. In fact, they rank 29th in rushing play attempts and fourth in passing plays. They need to jump-start their production in the air, but a shaky Eagles secondary could be the answer.
The adjusted spread at (5.5) gives us a better balance of risk and reward than the original spread from the BetUS sportsbook.
NFL Best Bet Online: Washington +5 adjusted spread