The Kansas City Chiefs begin their quest for a second straight Super Bowl title with a home game against the surprising Cleveland Browns on Sunday.
Kansas City had a bye last week and is coming off a loss in its regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Chargers, though the Chiefs sat several starters for that contest, including quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
The Browns are coming off a surprisingly easy win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild-Card round, as Cleveland jumped to a 28-0 lead in the first quarter thanks to numerous Pittsburgh turnovers.
The Browns are playing with a lot of confidence, but they’re also playing the Chiefs, who lost one game they were “trying” to win. Cleveland did get some good news this week with the return of defensive backs Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson, but the Browns will need to play their best. Kansas City has a lot more experience in playoff contests, which is something to remember when you bet online.
|Game: Cleveland (11-5) at Kansas City (14-2)
Location: Arrowhead Stadium
Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
NFL Betting Lines
|Team||Point Spread||Moneyline||Over/Under||Team Total|
Moneyline: Browns +400 | Chiefs -500
Despite an 11-5 record during the regular season, Cleveland actually gave up 11 more points than it scored. The Browns’ defense will have to be at its best to slow the potent Chiefs’ offense, which led the league in total yards (415.8) and passing yards (303.4) per game in the regular season. Unless something happens to Mahomes, we don’t see the Chiefs coming out on the short end of this one.
Pick: Chiefs to win
Point Spread: Chiefs -10
The NFL odds have the Chiefs as the weekend’s biggest favorite in this round. The Browns have a strong offense, especially with the ground game. Kansas City ranked 21st in the league in rushing yards allowed per game with 122.1, so Cleveland could find some running lanes, especially for Kareem Hunt, who will be squaring off with his former team. How long can the Browns stick with the running game if Kansas City gets off to a quick start offensively?
Pick: Chiefs to cover
Over/Under: 57 points
Being that Kansas City is playing, you have to think points are going to be scored in bunches. The Chiefs’ three playoff games a season ago averaged 64 points, so Kansas City scores points but it also gives up points. Cleveland is going to try to control the ball and eat up some clock if possible, but it is going to have to score a few times to win this game. This one just seems like a shootout waiting to happen.
Pick: Over 57
Prediction: Chiefs 38, Browns 21
A high-scoring playoff game? We’re in. A high-scoring playoff game with a few prop bets sprinkled around for some fun. Even better. When putting some money down on prop bets for a Chiefs game, it’s not a matter of if they’re going to score, but rather who is scoring first. That’s just one of the fun Super Bowl Prop Bets we’re looking at for this one.
Let’s take a look at some NFL betting props for the game.
Player To Score First TD: Tyreek Hill -600
The Chiefs had to rally from double-digit deficits in each of their three playoff victories a season ago. With that in mind, Andy Reid is going to try to get on the board early to take that possibility away. When the Chiefs get cooking, Tyreek Hill is finding openings in an opponent’s secondary, which we think he’ll do early on in this one.
Will There Be A Defensive Or Special Teams TD?: Yes +225
As a team gets down in a playoff game and starts to get desperate, it takes some chances. We can see Cleveland doing just that when it gets behind in the second half against the Chiefs. Baker Mayfield has been playing better in recent weeks, but he has been known to throw a Pick-6 here and there, and Kansas City will be looking to make a big play when the Browns are forced to go to the air.
Shortest TD In The Game: Under 1½ Yards -130
When making your NFL picks, you need to know the personnel for each team. For Cleveland, the running game is key, and we can see the Browns trying to chew up the clock by methodically moving down the field. That means running the ball down near the goal line and punching it in from just a yard out. At some point in this game, there will be a one-yard touchdown, likely by the Browns.