Bills vs Chiefs AFC Championship Moneyline Pick: Back Kansas City to Edge Buffalo January 26
- Bills vs Chiefs betting odds spotlight Kansas City as slight favorites
- Bet on the Chiefs moneyline (-130)
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It’s the fourth playoff meeting between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. And as much as we’d love to bet on the underdogs this time, this ends similarly to the last three games. NFL fans are exhausted of the Chiefs always winning. But life isn’t fair as Kansas City is rightfully favored on NFL Conference Championship odds. Thanks to the tight moneyline, we can bet them at a good price.

ALLEN VS. MAHOMES VOL. 4 🍿
The Buffalo Bills will play the Kansas Chiefs for the AFC Championship!
This will be the fourth time Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have met in the playoffs 👀 pic.twitter.com/9CRz58iDI8
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 20, 2025
Bills vs Chiefs Game Information
- Game: Buffalo Bills (15-4), Kansas City Chiefs (16-2)
- Date/Time: Sunday, Jan. 18, 6:30 p.m. ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Bills vs Chiefs Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
Check the latest Bills vs Chiefs betting trends here.
Bills vs Chiefs Odds and Spread


Place your Bets on Bills vs Chiefs at BetUS Sportsbook!
Bills vs Chiefs Picks: Bet Bet to Win AFC Championship Game
Kansas City Chiefs ML (-130)
With this NFL expert pick, we can bet the Chiefs straight or take a discount against the spread (ATS) at -1 and -120. The latter is a better bet given how there are no ties in the NFL playoffs. But a straight-up bet at -125 is not bad either as this line opened at -130. The Chiefs are still better than the Bills.
We’ll give credit to Buffalo though. The Bills are finding different ways to win outside of overwhelming opponents with sheer offensive firepower. They edged Baltimore, a team that dismantled them early in the season, by forcing turnovers and making timely stops. Josh Allen didn’t even have to put on a cape as he was relatively quiet by his standards.
But the Chiefs are not the Ravens. Kansas City may not be the same powerhouse on offense but it has made an art out of winning close games. The Chiefs are 15-2 in the playoffs over the last five years. Mahomes has 14 passing touchdowns against two turnovers since their last loss in the postseason.
While the Bills could be even tougher to take out, my Bills vs Chiefs NFL pick is that KC will do it again. Bet the Chiefs to beat Buffalo straight-up.
Bet on Kansas City Chiefs ML (-130)
2 Other Bills vs Chiefs Bets to Consider
1. Kansas City Chiefs 4th Quarter
Double up on Kansas City by betting it to win the fourth quarter, which is the most important period here. There is a better than 50% chance that the game is within seven points by the final frame. Whether that is Buffalo or Kansas City in the lead is irrelevant as the Chiefs will outscore the Bills.
Last year, the Chiefs outscored the Bills 7-0 in the fourth quarter. They won the game via Tyler Bass’s remake of “Wide Right”. In 2022, the Bills outscored the Chiefs 15-13 in that wild fourth quarter. But the Chiefs got the better in overtime 6-0. And 2021 was a blowout where the Bills scored garbage time points.
With these two, anything is possible 🔥 pic.twitter.com/uH0JmWEUF5
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 21, 2025
The Chiefs are also +48 in the fourth quarter this season while Buffalo is even. Kansas City gets our NFL game prediction here.
Bet on Kansas City Chiefs ML 4th Q
2 Player Prop: Travis Kelce 1+ Touchdowns and Chiefs Win (+199)
We don’t know what to think of the numerous conspiracy theories that the NFL’s “powers-at-be” are rigging Chiefs games due to their immense popularity with Taylor Swift and her beau. But Kelce has been a menace against Buffalo. He’s a good bet online to score as Kansas City wins.
Kelce has five touchdowns in three career playoff games against the Bills. He’s also scored a TD in nine of his last 11 games. Bet this “player double” to potentially double your stake.
Bet on Travis Kelce to Have 1+ TDs and KC to win (+199)
More Bills vs Chiefs Bets and Picks for AFC Conference Championship
Questions Of The Day
What is Buffalo’s all-time record in the AFC Championship?
The Buffalo Bills are 4-2 in AFC Championship games.
How many touchdowns does Travis Kelce have in the playoffs?
Travis Kelce has 20 career touchdowns in the postseason.
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets