Looking at all their NFL matchups to date, including the nine Tom Brady Super Bowl appearances, we compare and contrast the NFL odds versus our projections on the most popular proposition bets available right now at the sportsbook.
Prop Up Some Quarterback Bets
Here are nine head-to-head comparisons on the signal callers and their props for Super Bowl LV.
Tom Brady: 25½ completions
Tom Brady’s projected number of completions is a little higher than his 2020 average (24.3) and quite a bit lower than his average in Super Bowls (28.4).
Our projections have him at just above 25 completions so neither side of this bet presents value.
Patrick Mahomes: 27½ completions
In his lone Super Bowl with the Kansas City Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes completed 26 passes, on par with his 25.9 average from this season.
We project Mahomes to have just shy of 28 completions, and where the over is juiced to -125 here, it’s not much of a value. Lean to the over, but pass on the number.
Total Pass Attempts
Tom Brady: 39½ attempts
His history of throwing in a Super Bowl is an eyebrow-raising average of 43.6 attempts per game, well above his 2020 season average of 37.8 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
We’re projecting his pass attempts in this game to be 39 or fewer and would lean to the under 39½ attempts at even odds.
Patrick Mahomes: 41½ attempts
Last year, Mahomes threw 42 passes in the Super Bowl, above his 2020 seasonal average of 38.6 attempts per game.
This year’s projection comes out to be the same as last, and with juice on the over 41½ at -130, we’d pass on it.
Total Passing Yards
Tom Brady: 300½ yards
Though lopsided between the first and second half of the season, his average passing yards per game 289.1 is a downtrend in his career. Over his nine Super Bowls, he’s averaged 315.3 passing yards per contest.
Breaking the 300 mark seems like too far a reach, and would lean to the under 300½ yards (-105).
Patrick Mahomes: 330½ yards
The line on Mahomes’ passing yards is projected well above his 2020 season average of 312.9 yards per game. Last year, he ended the championship with a total of 286.
While we forecast him around the 325-yard mark, the current line is a bit too large. Lean under 330½ yards (-105).
Total Touchdown Passes
Brady has thrown 18 touchdown passes in his nine Super Bowls, which works out neatly to two per game. His 2020 output has been above average, where he’s posted 2.5 touchdown passes per game.
Our even odds projections put him at about two touchdowns, which makes the +200 odds on under 1½ tempting. That said, we’d certainly lean to under 2½ laying -145.
Similarly, Patrick Mahomes averaged 2.5 touchdown passes per game this season, and also pitched two touchdown passes in his last Super Bowl.
Also, similarly, these numbers seem slightly inflated. (Understandable, who wants to cheer against Pat Mahomes when he’s scrambling out of the pocket. It’s upsetting.) Nonetheless, the price of under 1½ touchdown passes at +325 is the value (based on our projections). But of almost equal value and likelier to cash, we’d lean under 2½ touchdown passes at +130.
Tom Brady: 39½ yards
How far will Tom Brady manage to connect with someone downfield? Can he really throw one 40 yards? He’s only done it twice in his nine Super Bowls, throwing for 50 (LII) and 52 (XXXVIII) yards.
At the current number and flat odds, we’d slightly lean under 39½ yards -115, but will likely pass on it unless the vig goes down.
Patrick Mahomes: 41½ yards
Mahomes hooked up with Tyreek Hill last Super Bowl for a 42-yard chunk play that helped spark the comeback. He’s listed at about the same number this year.
The price on this one seems fair enough to pass. We’d take a slight lean to the over, but at -130 the value isn’t there. (We’ll regret saying this when the Chiefs uncork some new play on Sunday where an open Tyreek Hill is two steps away from the nearest defender streaking 50 yards downfield.)
Score a Rushing Touchdown
Tom Brady: Yes +325 | No -450
Tom Brady has never rushed for a touchdown in any of his nine Super Bowl appearances. This season has been a boon for Brady rushing TDs with four. That’s better than twice his career average.
Even at his 2020 rate, we’d want around +375 to back him calling his own number at the goal line. On the other side, -450 is way better value. (We’d price it closer to -500.) If laying heavy chalk is your thing, this isn’t a bad spot.
Patrick Mahomes: Yes +300 | No -400
While he did crash the goal line last year, Mahomes’ rushing TDs this season was lower than Brady’s. (Mahomes ran for three this year.)
But the price here is more than worth the bet and we’re playing Patrick Mahomes to score a rushing touchdown at +300. (Run don’t walk to make this bet, as we’d expect that number to come down before kickoff.)
Total Rushing Yards
Tom Brady: 0½ yards
Everyone knows Tom Brady rarely runs, and when he does it’s either a broken play or a half-yard sneak.
Since his total is less than a single yard, it’s kind of a dud bet. Both yards lost on sacks and kneel downs count against total rushing yards, and if you’re handicapping a game where Brady makes up any kind of rushing ground, there’s more value in the next category (longest rush).
Patrick Mahomes: 22½ yards
Mahomes scampered for a total of 29 yards in the last Super Bowl. During the season, he averaged considerably less (thanks to a number of games with no rush yards at all) ending with an average of 19.2 yards rushing per game.
While the base number here is high, we wouldn’t bet against it. (Or for it, for that matter.) While there’s a slight lean to the under, we’ll pass on -115 odds behind it.
Tom Brady: 0½ yards
Thanks to the fact that he’s old and doesn’t run, Tom Brady’s total rushing yards is set as low as it can be — which makes the line for longest single rush the exact same.
Take advantage at a cheap price and play Tom Brady longest rush at over 0½ yards (-115). A fourth-and-one quarterback sneak gets there, as does a broken play where Brady slides ahead for a modest gain, or (god forbid) even a scripted running play.
Patrick Mahomes: 12½ yards
Maybe it’s based on last year’s Super Bowl where Mahomes’ longest run was 13 yards. He’s certainly capable of breaking a 13+ yard play with his feet, and has done so numerous times this season.
We lean slightly to the under here but will pass. It’s more of a coin flip at 12 yards, and laying the -115 juice makes it not worth it.
Throw an Interception
Tom Brady: Yes -160 | No +130
On average, Tom Brady throws an interception two out of every three Super Bowls. In reality, he’s thrown one in four of them and did so twice in Super Bowl XLIX. That’s strictly in line with his career numbers, but his 2020 season is way above that average.
We’d project Brady to be good for one interception around that 60-ish percent of the time, but the current odds are steep and reflect that. So, we’ll take only a slight lean to yes Tom Brady will throw an interception -160.
Patrick Mahomes: Yes +130 | No -160
Sure, he threw two of them last year when trying to mount a comeback against the San Francisco 49ers, but Patrick Mahomes kept a relatively clean record during the regular season. The counter here are the four picks thrown in just the past two playoff games.
While we project him tossing an interception about a third of the time on Sunday, the odds are just in range. Lean to no Patrick Mahomes will not throw an interception -160.