Bookmakers have set their lines for the opening week of the NFL, and we have identified one game as the Under of the Week.
We are eyeing the New York Jets vs Carolina Panthers as a situation where the Las Vegas NFL odds are in our favor.
The teams can struggle to score points at the best of times, but the unique situation makes the under even more attractive on Sunday.
New QBs = Fewer Points
The New York Jets start rookie quarterback Zach Wilson, who has an arm, but the newbies are often eased into the game with caution.
We can’t see Wilson throwing dangerous passes downfield for chunk yardage. Instead, as the Jets did with Sam Darnold, they’ll keep him under wraps for the first half of the season.
Therefore, the Jets will opt for shorter passes and the running game. Although it’s a misconception that running teams feature predominantly in low-scoring games, it does take valuable time off the clock.
The Jets players have officially named Zach Wilson a captain. @Djbienaime https://t.co/LPTylmjx4D
— NY Daily News Sports (@NYDNSports) September 8, 2021
We expect the Jets to use their running game to their advantage, which could result in a dour affair. We wish Zach Wilson all the best on his debut, but we can’t see him throwing for four touchdowns and blowing the under out of the water.
Wilson talked about Sam Darnold moving on from his time in New York.
“He’s doing his own thing now. He’s got a great situation going for him,” Wilson told ESPN. “I think the organization already decided to go one way, and it’s not because Sam isn’t a good football player. It’s just that they wanted a fresh start.”
The same goes for Carolina Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold, who knows all about how hard it is for the Jets to score points. He was the quarterback for the last couple of years, and with disastrous results.
Darnold wasn’t necessarily a bad quarterback, but the offensive system at the Jets doesn’t allow quarterbacks to flourish. It’s our biggest concern for the Jets this week, so the under 45 points is attractive.
The sportsbook has framed a low line, but with good reason. We don’t think Carolina will score too many points either, but we’re more confident with their offense compared to the Jets.
Darnold and the Panthers could take time to gel, which will see fewer points scored.
Statistics in our Favor
We can talk all day about how we think the Jets and Panthers aren’t very good offensively, but the statistics are also in our favor.
The number of 45 points is low and requires only a 26-20 game for bettors to lose. However, we struggle to see where the points come from.
The Panthers are likely to use Christian McCaffrey to get down the field, but it often results in a field goal attempt.
Our NFL predictions of a low-scoring game are backed up by statistics, which all lean towards the under hitting.
Under is 5-2 in the Jets’ last seven games as a road underdog, and 5-2 in their last five road games overall.
The under is also 5-2 in the Panthers’ last seven home games, and 4-1 in their last five games on grass.
Statistics are pointing towards the under being safe, and we expect money to come on game day. It’s currently at a -110 price, which is good shopping.
Under of the Week Pick
It might not be the most exciting game of the week, but the Jets vs Panthers is an excellent game for bettors.
We predict a low-scoring contest that could end 20-17. It would see the under hit by eight points, so it’s a safe margin to work with.
We would be surprised if the Jets and Panthers suddenly became offensive juggernauts, so we’re confident they’ll stick true to their form.
