The Kansas City Chiefs are the reigning Super Bowl champions, and have perhaps the greatest coach-quarterback duo in the NFL. Current Super Bowl Odds show the Chiefs (+550) out in front, alongside the Baltimore Ravens (+550). The most recent MVP odds list Patrick Mahomes (+300) slightly ahead of Lamar Jackson (+500), to decide their MVP best-of-three. The AFC is shaping up to be a legitimate two-horse race, but parity is always lurking in the shadows. Although the Chiefs’ strength of schedule is .500, their road to postseason glory has more potholes than you might think.
This article divides the Chiefs’ 16-game season into four quarters, predicting the outcomes of each game on the schedule. The predicted win-loss record will then be balanced against our regular-season wins odds, to identify a high-probability wager. Betting on the NFL has never been so exciting! Our sportsbook has up-to-the-minute NFL odds, so all you need is a credit card and a solid sports betting strategy. Let’s start by flashing back to Kansas City’s Super Bowl-winning 2019 season.
2019
Regular season: 12-4
Division record: 6-0
Playoff record: 3-0; Won 31-20 vs. San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV
What’s most impressive about Kansas City’s Super Bowl-winning season, is that their offense wasn’t operating at full strength. Starting RB Damien Williams missed five games, and backup RB Darrel Williams played 12 games before landing on Injured Reserve. Both Mahomes and star wideout Tyreek Hill suffered injuries.
Hill didn’t return until Week 6, while Mahomes limped through his ankle issue, finally aggravating the injury in Week 5. In what some might consider to be an incident of skeletal compensation, Mahomes dislocated his knee cap in Week 7. Miraculously, the 2018 MVP was back behind center in Week 10. The Chiefs lost in Mahomes’ return to the field vs the Titans, but the 2019 Chiefs never lost another game.
Kansas City starts the 2020 season with the vast majority of its title team intact. The Chiefs lost RB Damien Williams (opt-out) and CB Kendall Fuller (free agent, Washington Football Team), but have addressed the holes. First-round draft choice, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, has been plugged into a starting role. Edwards-Helaire is primed to tear it up in terms of yards from scrimmage, and he’s an early candidate for OROY. Our Offensive Rookie of the Year odds will be available in the very near future.
The Chiefs’ defense is still a relative concern. However, if Kansas City comes close to repeating it’s 2019 defensive performance, the Chiefs should win a lot of games. KC ranked seventh in points allowed while scoring the fifth-most points in the NFL (with a hobbled offensive unit). What does 2020 have in store for the Kansas City Chiefs?
First-quarter breakdown
The Chiefs kick off the 2020 season at Arrowhead Stadium, with a Week 1 beatdown of the Houston Texans. Kansas City will not need to rally out of a 24-point hole in this one. Week 1 NFL odds cast the Texans as 10-point underdogs, and we can expect KC to cover the spread. The Chiefs will continue rolling against the Chargers in Week 2. In what is likely an AFC Championship game preview, Kansas City visits Baltimore to battle the Ravens in Week 3. The Chiefs suffer their first L of 2020, getting outgunned in a bonafide shootout. This painful road loss proves to be motivational fuel for the Chiefs, when they face the Ravens in the playoffs. Kansas City rebounds in Week 4 with a solid victory over the fading New England Patriots.
Record: 3-1
Second quarter
The Chiefs wreck the Raiders in Week 5, before losing a Week 6 nail-biter in Buffalo to the Bills. KC bounces back with a big Week 7 win in Denver, stabling the Broncos on Empower Field at Mile High. In Week 8, the Jets never really get off the ground in Arrowhead Stadium, and the Chiefs cruise.
Record: 3-1
Third quarter
The Carolina Panthers put up quite a fight in Kansas City on Week 9, but the Chiefs prevail. Following KC’s Week 10 bye, the Chiefs lose back-to-back games for the first and only time in 2020. Everything goes the Raiders’ way in Vegas during Week 11, and the Chiefs beat themselves. The Buccaneers simply do a better job of executing than the Chiefs in Week 12, earning the victory in TB. The Bucs come away satisfied with the results of what they considered to be a Super Bowl preview. Kansas City demolishes Denver in Arrowhead, reminding the NFL what they’re capable of.
Record: 2-2
Fourth quarter
In Week 14, the Chiefs travel to Miami and defeat the upstart Dolphins in a pretty close game. The Week 15 trip to New Orleans doesn’t prove to be as kind to Kansas City. Penalty flags fly, and more often than not, the calls go against the Chiefs. The infractions are enough to alter the outcome of the game. The Chiefs return home to defeat the Falcons and Chargers convincingly in consecutive weeks.
Record: 3-1
Prediction
The Chiefs will dominate once again in a difficult AFC West, going 5-1 vs division opponents. The Las Vegas Raiders are the only divisional foe to beat Kansas City in the regular season. The Raiders earn a postseason spot in 2020, making a surprising little run (more on that in the Raiders’ preview). The Chiefs complete the regular season with one less win than they had in 2019, finishing 11-5.
The over/under odds for Kansas City’s regular-season win total currently sits at 11½ . This pick might feel a bit like a tightrope walk, but that’s why it’s called gambling. Sports betting is a game of inches, just like it is in most of the sports we watch. My money is on the Chiefs (+120) winning less than 11½ games in 2020. If someone throws $75 on this gutsy wager and wins, they’ll have an extra $90 to make it rain with.
