Chiefs vs Texans Prediction, NFL Divisional Round Analysis: Best ATS, Over/Under Picks for January 18
- Bet on the KC -9 when making your Chiefs vs Texans picks.
- Bet this game to finish under 42 points.
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The NFL playoffs are off to a fantastic start. Wild Card weekend was highly entertaining, and the Divisional Round is here. It kicks off with two matchups on Saturday.
The Kansas City Chiefs host the Houston Texans at 4:30 pm ET to kick off the Divisional Round on Saturday night. The Chiefs trail only the Detroit Lions in Super Bowl 59 odds and are the current favorites to represent the AFC in the big game in February.
This will be the second meeting of the season between these AFC foes. KC is currently a 9-point favorite in our Chiefs vs Texans betting lines.
Round 2: 🔜 👀
📺: #HOUvsKC – Saturday 4:30pm ET on ESPN
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/ryHQuGnkao— NFL (@NFL) January 13, 2025
Chiefs vs Texans Divisional Round Game Information
- Game: Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Date/Time: Saturday, Jan. 18, 4:30 p.m. ET
- Chiefs vs Texans Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
Last week, we split our pick against the spread and total, and I’m eager to sweep our picks during Divisional Round weekend.
Be sure to check the latest Chiefs vs Texans betting trends here.
Chiefs vs Texans Odds and Spreads
Place your Bets on Chiefs vs Texans at BetUS Sportsbook!
NFL Divisional Round Picks: ATS, Over/Under Bets for Chiefs vs Texans
1. Kansas City Chiefs ATS -9 (-Ev)
Our first NFL expert pick against the spread for this divisional round clash is for the defending Super Bowl champs to win this by at least 9 points.
The trends don’t lean either way, with the Chiefs going 8-9 ATS and the Texans posting an 8-8-2 record ATS this season. These teams met in Week 16, and the Chiefs won at home 27-19. Kansas City was just a field goal favorite before that one, so to see them laying 9 points here shows the sportsbook is aware of the Texans’ injuries on offense since then.
Texans quarterback CJ Stroud was the second-most sacked passer in the NFL this season. Only Caleb Williams was sacked more times. The Chiefs’ pass rush and defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, will look to tee off on the Texans struggling offensive line.
Backing Kansas City at this inflated point spread is the only way I see value. Patrick Mahomes is 13-5 ATS in his career in the postseason. The Texans’ offense ranked 27th in passing success rate and last in the league in rushing success rate. Pro Football Focus has Houston’s offensive line ranked 28th overall.
The playoffs bring out the best in us. pic.twitter.com/cFmJ9sHQt9
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 14, 2025
The Chiefs will do what they’ve done since Mahomes took over under center. They have won each matchup to open the postseason at home by at least seven points in five of their last six opening playoff games: (31-13 vs. Colts, 2018), (51-31 vs. Texans, 2019), (22-17 vs. Browns, 2020), (42-21 vs. Steelers, 2021), (27-20 vs. Jaguars, 2022), and (26-7 vs. Dolphins, 2023).
Count on the Chiefs on Saturday to pull away and win this one by double digits in NFL game predictions.
2. Chiefs vs Texans Under 42
BetUS Sportsbook lists the total for this game at 42 points. We will take the under. Only the Giants saw more games go under the total than the Texans during the regular season. Houston was 11-7 to the under, while Kansas City was 10-7 to the under. The Chiefs allowed the fourth-fewest points per game (19.2), while Houston was 11th in points per game allowed (21.3).
Houston’s 32-point showing against the Chargers looks excellent on the surface, but they forced Justin Herbert into four interceptions. One strength for Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champs is their ability to avoid turnovers (4th-fewest). C.J. Stroud has struggled in his second season despite the emergence of Nico Collins. The offense struggled down the stretch with season-ending injuries to Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell.
The Chiefs offense struggled to score touchdowns this season, finishing 22nd in red zone efficiency. Houston’s strength is on the defensive side of the ball. According to FTN, the Texans finished third in defensive DVOA. With the weather forecast calling for temperatures in the teens, both offenses may struggle even more.
Expect both offenses to be more methodical than we’re used to seeing and the defenses to dominate the day when you bet online.
Bet This Pick: Chiefs vs Texans Under 42
More Chiefs vs Texans Bets and Picks for NFL Divisional January 18
Question of the Day
Who leads the all-time playoff series between the Chiefs and Texans?
Kansas City leads the series 2-0 all-time across two meetings with the Houston Texans in the playoffs.
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
