Dolphins vs Packers TNF Player Prop Bets: 3 Picks to Bet on Thanksgiving Day November 28

Best 3 Player Prop Bets for Dolphins vs Packers on NFL Thanksgiving Day

1. Best Player Prop: Rashan Gary 1+ Sacks (+152)

Tagovailoa famously said “Brother, I get the ball out fast” regarding the shoddy makings of his offensive line. With Terron Armstead perpetually banged up, this will continue to be an issue. And sure, Tagovailoa does not get sacked a lot (an average of almost two per game). But he will take one and our bet online is on Rashan Gary to get him.

Rashan Gary was really good on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/GivNfmiWjK

— Ross Uglem (@RossUglem) November 18, 2024

The Packers’ leading edge rusher has 4.5 sacks for the season. He’s underwhelmed given his abilities. But he’s starting to get it going and is adjusting to all the double teams he’s faced. Gary has tallied nine hurries, six QB knockdowns, and a forced fumble.

The Dolphins may be on a roll and Tagovailoa is slinging the rock rapidly. But given the TNF player props, we’ll buy in on Gary sacking Tagovailoa at least once.

Bet This Pick: Rashan Gary – 1+ Sacks (+152)

2. Best QB Prop: Tua Tagovailoa 2+ Passing TDs (+112)

Despite getting pressured and sacked, we still expect Tagovailoa to have a decent game. This is going against the grain as Tagovailoa tends to not play well in cold conditions. But given the NFL odds, we like for him to throw at least two touchdowns. That’s not a high bar.

Tua Tagovailoa’s last two weeks

605 Pass Yards
7 Pass TD
0 INT
128.5 Pass Rating
2-0

The @MiamiDolphins are RED HOT pic.twitter.com/7FMmj7dQ24

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 24, 2024

Looking at Tagovailoa’s past “cold weather” games, he’s thrown at least two touchdowns in each. He threw a pair of touchdowns in 29 degrees in Buffalo in 2022 with a 104.0 passer rating to boot. Fair play, he threw just one against Kansas City in the playoffs during a historically cold game and one against Buffalo in 2020.

But one was against the NFL’s best defense in a playoff game and the other was with Brian Flores and the defensive-minded Dolphins in his rookie year. So we can’t entirely blame Tagovailoa here. We’ll put faith in the red-hot QB that he’ll get us a pair of passing TDs this Thursday night.

Bet This Pick: Tua Tagovailoa – Over (1.5) Passing TDs (+112)

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3. Best TD Prop: De’Von Achane Scores 2+ TDs (+400)

And helping Tagovailoa out is De’Von Achane. The running back is to Miami what Christian McCaffrey is (or was) to the 49ers. We’ll admit that we’ve consistently tooted his horn. But instead of just taking the -125 on him to score a TD here, how about a pair for +400?

In goes Achane to extend the Miami lead 🐬

📺: #NEvsMIA on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/HP0nZHhVOt

— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2024

All of Achane’s eight touchdowns came in the red zone. He’s also carried the ball on nearly 43% of Miami’s running plays here (20 of 47) and has 11 of the 42 targets (11 of 12 for running backs) (26%). Green Bay also tends to get scored on from the red zone compared to the rest of the NFL.

The Packers’ red-zone touchdown defense is at 60% (21-of-35 for opponents), which ranks 20th and is breachable for Miami. Of the 26 TDs Green Bay has allowed, all but five came from within 20 yards. Achane is our NFL pick to not only score against Green Bay but to do it twice. This could be the best prop at these lines.

Bet This Pick: De’Von Achane – 2+ TDs (+400)

Questions of the Day

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.