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Dolphins vs Texans Picks: Bet Miami in Outright Upset on December 15th
- Find the best NFL odds at BetUS sportsbook.
- We like the Dolphins to upset the Texans in Week 15
- Houston continues to struggle on offense, which will lead to the total going under
- We like the underdogs for our Dolphins vs Texans betting lines.
We’ve been burned trusting the Miami Dolphins many times this season. The Dolphins were who people thought they were in Green Bay. But we’ve got an NFL news flash here: Miami will be playing in a domed stadium on Sunday in Houston where it’s also no cooler than 60 degrees. And you know what? This Miami team is not “soft” like most people think. The Dolphins are our pick against the struggling Texans.
Dolphins vs Texans Game Information
- Game: Miami Dolphins (6-7), Houston Texans (8-5)
- Date/Time: Sunday, Dec. 15, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
- Dolphins vs Texans Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
Check the latest NFL betting trends before placing your bets.
Dolphins vs Texans Odds And Spread
Place your Bets on Dolphins vs Texans at BetUS Sportsbook!
2 Dolphins vs Texans Betting Picks: Best ML and Over/Under Bets
1. Miami Dolphins ML (+130)
Tua Tagovailoa will get no MVP mentions but he single-handedly turns Miami into a playoff contender. He has been on fire since returning from injury. The Dolphins are 4-3 against the NFL spread (ATS) and are averaging 30 points if we exclude that frozen game in Green Bay. And with defense, the Dolphins can dial up an upset special here.
How 🔥 is Tua?
Tagovailoa is the FIRST player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.
📸: Carmen Mandato, Getty Images pic.twitter.com/7F6AuqoYaX
— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) December 10, 2024
“He makes people better,” Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel said of Tagovailoa. “That’s an incredibly important part of that position.”
Other than folding in cold games, the Dolphins are different this season. They upset the Rams (who just upset the Bills by the way) and beat the Jets in overtime. The latter deserves a mention because Miami snatched victory from the jaws of defeat.
The defense, as we mentioned, has been better. Even though Miami gave up 388+ yards in the last two games, the Dolphins tend to only get torched by elite teams – and Aaron Rodgers dialing back the clock. We’re not convinced the Texans, given their offensive woes, are in this category.
C.J. Stroud has regressed sharply. Get this: Bryce Young, who looked like a colossal bust with Carolina, has averaged a higher passer rating (81.2) than Stroud (77.9) since he returned to the starting lineup. Houston has declined offensively as a result.
While the Texans still average 23.7 points per game (11th), they rank 21st in red-zone touchdown rate (53.3%) and third-down conversion rate (37.1%). NFL injuries are partly to blame. But discipline issues from the offensive line plus turnover issues make Houston tough to bet, especially as a favorite.
But instead of betting on Miami to cover, we’ll take it to win outright in our NFL predictions. On the road, Miami beat the Rams and covered against Buffalo. It can win in Houston.
Bet on Miami Dolphins to win +130
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2. Dolphins vs Texans Under 47
Miami has a solid defense and we’ve got the numbers to prove it. Per Dolphins vs Texans stats, Miami is ranked sixth in red-zone defense (48.7%) and fourth in third-down conversion rate (34.4%). The Dolphins have also given up the ninth-fewest yards (319.4 per game). Quarterbacks average an 89.4 passer rating against Miami. This is why most of its games have gone under the total.
Calais Campbell still getting things done in year 17. pic.twitter.com/2kAvjwQJsV
— NFL (@NFL) November 12, 2024
This includes six of its last seven road games. Miami may not be able to shut down the best teams but it can make life hard for the Texans. Houston has been held to 23 points or fewer in five of its last seven games. The two exceptions were against Dallas and Tennessee. The former has an awful defense and the latter is one of the worst NFL teams.
Given Houston’s offensive woes, the total also has gone under in eight of its last 12 games. Playing at home makes little difference as Houston averages only 23.2 points and 5.33 yards per play at the NRG Stadium. Both rank in the lower half of the league.
Houston concedes plenty of passing touchdowns. But it also has the second-most interceptions and its ability to kill possessions with a well-timed turnover is our “saving grace” in betting the under here. While Miami can put up plenty of points, our NFL expert pick is on the under. Bet on defenses to finish strong here.
Bet on Dolphins vs Texans Under 47
Questions Of The Day
How many points does Miami give up as a visitor?
Miami allows 20.8 points as a road team this season. This ranks ninth in the NFL.
What is Houston’s record against the spread as a home team?
Houston is 2-3-1 against the spread (ATS) when playing at home this season.
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets
