If you want to bet on NFL point spreads and totals, you better do it early in the week. As we approach every weekend, betting lines move, so it’s best to ensure you get the best odds to win before the market catches on. There is still one more game to be played on Monday night to cap off an exciting Week 4, but we’re here to look at Week 5 and give our predictions on NFL games before the lines move.
Week 4 was great for square bettors, as there were no improbable straight-up upsets. The Giants and Seahawks still need to play on Monday night (see my best anytime TD bets for Giants vs Seahawks here). The first month of the 2023 NFL betting season is nearly in the books.
This week, we saw the Jaguars roll past the Falcons in London. The Bears season continues to burn, the Eagles and 49ers remain unbeaten, and the Bills gave us the most impressive win to this point in the season with their 28-point victory over the Dolphins. Getting the best number is the reason for betting early in the week. That’s why I’m here: to provide you with the best pick in the NFL in Week 5.
Back the Bills in London
My only concern with this bet is that the Jaguars will be comfortably set up in London for the second straight week while the Bills will just arrive. Josh Allen and the Bills are coming off the most impressive win of the 2023 season. Allen accounted for five total touchdowns (four passing, one rushing) in Buffalo’s 48-20 win over division rival Miami Dolphins.
Everyone talked about the Dolphins’ record 70-point performance in Week 3 all week long, and the Bills showed up and showed out. They held Miami to 393 total yards and forced multiple turnovers. The Bills’ defense showed the world it is legit and humbled the Dolphins. In the win, the Bills lost star cornerback Tre’Davious White to a possible Achilles injury, which would be a significant loss for its dominant defense and could affect the team’s NFL odds this season.
The Bills are now 3-1 on the season and never trailed in their Week 4 win. In Week 5, they will face the Jaguars at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Although it may not be a home game, Bills Mafia will travel to support their squad. The Jaguars finally played a complete game in their Week 4 win. Jacksonville is coming off a 23-7 win over the Falcons, and they can thank its defense. The Jaguars pass rush is strong, but if they can’t get to the quarterback, its secondary is susceptible to big plays.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense have looked out of sync through the season’s first month. Despite the win, Lawrence had just a 6.3 average depth of target and finished with just 207 yards and one touchdown.
The Jaguars offense ranks 24th in EPA per play and will need help to keep pace with Josh Allen and the Bills. The Bills secondary has the depth to handle the loss of White if he misses time. Getting this number right now inside 6 points is essential, so hurry up and put some money on this NFL bet against the spread.
- NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills -6
Bet on a High Total at Mile High
First and foremost, when I look to bet on NFL games, I always consider the weather at outdoor stadiums. The weather forecast in Denver next Sunday looks perfect for points!
The Jets will travel to Mile High to battle the Broncos. There was some preseason drama between these teams when Head Coach Sean Payton blamed the Broncos’ struggles last season on their former head coach and now Jets Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. So, I expect this bad blood between coaches to lead each team not to hold anything back when it comes to play calling.
The Broncos defense has been pitiful to this point in the season. They allowed 70 points to the Dolphins in Week 3 and struggled to slow down a struggling Bears offense in Week 4. I understand the Jets boast one of the best defenses in the NFL, but we can trust Russell Wilson to get points on the board.
Zach Wilson finally looked like a formidable NFL quarterback on Sunday night. Wilson put 20 points on the board against the Chiefs defense, ranking fourth in opponent points per game entering Week 4. If we get this version of Wilson next week, I see the Jets building on that 20-point performance against a struggling Denver defense.
- NFL Pick: Broncos, Jets Over 43