If you’re someone looking to bet on NFL spreads and totals, you better do it early. Throughout the week, NFL betting lines move, so it’s best to ensure you get the best NFL odds to win your bets against the spread and total before the market catches on. There are still two more games to be played on Monday night to cap off a wild Week 3, but we’re here to take a look at what the NFL odds today are for Week 4 before the lines move.
Week 3 was incredibly unpredictable for the average bettor. The Miami Dolphins put up 70 – (70)! – points on the Broncos. There was a trio of big-time upsets as the Houston Texans went into Jacksonville and defeated the Jaguars, the Indianapolis Colts, led by Gardner Minshew, took down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Baltimore, and the Arizona Cardinals somehow dominated the Dallas Cowboys, winning by double digits.
Jump on the Jaguars at Their Lowest
We’re heading across the pond for our first early bet against the spread (ATS) on NFL betting lines in week 4. This is the time to back the Jaguars – at their lowest. Jacksonville will take on the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4 to kick off the NFL’s “International Series” in 2023. The game will be played at Wembley Stadium in London.
The Jaguars were the heavy favorites to win the AFC South at the start of the season, and after their loss in Week 3, they remain the favorites. This is a sign that sportsbooks believe Jacksonville will turn things around. I even think the Jaguars are worth a bet to win the AFC South right now, entering Week 4 priced at (+150) on NFL odds to win.
Jacksonville (1-2) will need to turn their season around starting this week against the Falcons (2-1). You’re going to hear chatter all week about, “What’s wrong with Trevor Lawrence?” The truth is he’s not playing poorly. His receivers haven’t helped him much as they have nine dops, the most in the NFL, through Week 3.
Lawrence leads the NFL in big-time throws, and we can expect Calvin Ridley to want to put on a show against his former team in Week 4. Despite their loss in Week 3, the Jaguars outgained the Texans in total yards and had 22 first downs to Houston’s 15.
If you think Lawrence has struggled, take a look at Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder. Last season, the Falcons ran the ball at the highest rate, and they want to do so again in 2023. Mainly because they can’t rely on Ridder to make plays. Falcons running back Bijan Robinson looks outstanding through the first three weeks of his NFL career, but the Jaguars’ strength on defense is stopping the run.
Jacksonville’s defense currently ranks second in rushing success allowed and third in EPA allowed per rush. Not many people will be looking to back Atlanta, so the line is sure to move in favor of the Jaguars throughout the week.
Possibly the most important part of this early NFL bet against the spread for Week 4 is the number we’re getting. Three (3) is considered a “key” number because points are scored in threes for field goals. The most common margin of victory in the NFL is three points.
Around 15% of all NFL games have finished with a three-point margin of victory. So if the Jaguars win by three, it is a push and we get our stake back.
Trust the Jets Defense
Patrick Mahomes has done many things so far in his NFL career except start a game at Metlife Stadium against the Jets or New York Giants. In Week 4, that will change. Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) will battle the Jets (1-2) on Sunday Night Football. When the schedule was released, many of us had this game circled, hoping to see Mahomes versus Aaron Rodgers.
Unfortunately, that won’t take place this season. Instead, Zach Wilson will lead the Jets pass attack, which has been grounded through three weeks. Wilson’s struggles have continued as he looked terrible in the Week 3 loss against the New England Patriots. He completed 50% of his passes for 157 yards and zero touchdowns.
On the other side, Mahomes and the Chiefs offense got things back on track against the dumpster fire that is the Chicago Bears in Week 3. They put up 41 points of their own in the win. Essentially, we’re trusting the Jets defense to slow down Mahomes on Sunday night.
The Jets have seen an insane 16 of their last 20 games go under 41.5 points. In primetime games, the under has hit in seven of nine games so far in 2023.
Coach Saleh on how impressed he was with the defense in the second half. pic.twitter.com/9biiQ8gI8a
— New York Jets (@nyjets) September 24, 2023
It’s likely that Wilson and the Jets offense struggles again. The Chiefs defense has been surprisingly solid to start the season, allowing just 13.3 points per game. This is good for the fourth-least points allowed in the NFL before Monday Night Football. Take the under for Jets vs Chiefs