If you want to bet on the NFL, you better do it early in the week. As we advance through the week, NFL betting lines move, so be sure that you get the best NFL odds to win your bets for the NFL this week before the market catches on. Getting the best number possible is vital because you could get a negative closing line value (CLV) if you wait.
Locking in your spread and total bets early could ultimately be the difference when the final second ticks off the clock. It’s crucial to lock in your NFL bets against the spread and total as soon as possible. The 2024 Super Bowl odds favor the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens as we head into the AFC and NFC Championship games.
The early lookahead lines for the potential Super Bowl point spread have the 49ers favored against both AFC opponents. The Lions are underdogs against both the Ravens and Chiefs.
We’re not quite there yet. I’m here to take an early look at the odds for Championship Weekend and give my early predictions on the NFL playoffs before the lines move. The Divisional Round did not disappoint, and I’m already diving into the next round of the playoffs.
Divisional Round Weekend Recap
The Divisional Round weekend is one of my favorites every season; this year, it did not disappoint. The excellent rookie season for C.J. Stroud came to an end when the Baltimore Ravens defeated the Houston Texans 34-10. The final score is misleading as the Texans had the Ravens on the ropes at halftime, tied up 10-10, but Baltimore came out firing in the second half. The 49ers overcame a fourth-quarter deficit against the young Green Bay Packers on their way to a 24-21 victory through the raindrops at Levi’s Stadium.
Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers couldn’t get past the Detroit Lions after they knocked off the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card. This is my favorite story of the playoffs. Motor City and the Lions won their third playoff game since 1957 and have reached the NFC Championship Game for the second time in franchise history.
“This year felt different because Buffalo wasn’t riding high all season… It felt like this was their year to beat Kansas City… and it didn’t happen. So you do have to go back to the drawing board…”@JasonMcCourty on the Bills’ 3rd loss to the Chiefs in the postseason pic.twitter.com/2m8m2wAaqm
— Good Morning Football (@gmfb) January 22, 2024
The final game of the Divisional Round notched the next chapter in the Patrick Mahomes versus Josh Allen story. Mahomes and the Chiefs continue to find ways to defeat the Buffalo Bills. With the 27-24 win, Kansas City has advanced to its sixth consecutive AFC Championship Game.
Looking ahead to NFL playoff lines, we’re attempting to get the best number for our picks for Divisional Round weekend. In the playoffs, the quarterback position is under the microscope. Who will help their team advance to the AFC and NFC Championships? I’m here to give you my best NFL bets today for the NFL playoffs.
It’s Lamar’s Time
Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens needed a second-half effort to defeat the Houston Texans. The one thing that was consistent for them all season long has been their dominant defense. Baltimore finished the season with the sixth-best defense over the last decade by EPA per play. The Ravens were first in defensive DVOA, and allowed the fewest touchdowns overall and the fewest points per game this season (16.5). They held the Texan’s offense scoreless as their only touchdown came from a punt return.
Baltimore’s offense displayed some rust after sitting most of its starters in Week 18 and then had a bye in the Wild Card. The Ravens took off in the second half as Jackson, the likely MVP, threw two for touchdowns and ran for two more. The Ravens will carry that momentum into the AFC Championship.
Baltimore can taste the AFC Championship game.
— NFL (@NFL) January 21, 2024
Mahomes just won his first career road playoff game, but winning two is extremely difficult. Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense has struggled all season long. They had some success against the Bills’ injury-riddled defense but are in for a battle against the Ravens. The reigning league MVP, Mahomes averaged career lows in yards per attempt, and yards per game and committed a career-worst 17 turnovers during the regular season.
Jackson is 22-6 against the spread (ATS) when he was favored by 3 points or fewer. The Ravens were undefeated in six similar instances this season. The Chiefs’ run defense will be their downfall, and the Ravens have the rest advantage.
The Chiefs were dead last in EPA added per rush this season against runs off tackle or on the perimeter. They allowed the Bills to rush for 182 yards, and the Ravens led the NFL in rushing DVOA and rush yards per game (156.5).
Kansas City finished 26th in EPA per rush allowed and 28th in success rate allowed on zone-reads and quarterback rushes. Jackson will make this Chiefs defense look silly all day as he led the NFL in scrambles and forced missed tackles on those scrambles.
AFC Championship Pick: Ravens (-3) vs Chiefs
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The Detroit Lions face the daunting task of going on the road to battle the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship. We’ll likely hear all week long about Jared Goff’s struggles when he has to play outside the comforts of a dome. The good news for Detroit is they will be able to lean on its dynamic running back duo. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
It will be the first time since the first week of December the Lions will play outdoors. Goff’s stats do suffer when he’s not in a dome, but I expect the Lions to utilize their strong offensive line and running game. The 49ers’ defense often played with a lead this season, which has inflated their stats against the run. The Packers exposed this on Saturday as Aaron Jones became the first 100-yard rusher against the Niners in 51 games.
JAHMYR GIBBS. GONE.
— NFL (@NFL) January 21, 2024
That’s an incredible stat for the 49ers defense, but it ranked 24th in rushing success rate during the regular season. Detroit was excellent at defending the run this season, which will force Brock Purdy to make plays with his arm. It’s currently being reported that wide receiver Deebo Samuel has a 50/50 chance to play on Sunday. If Samuel can’t go, that’s one less weapon for Purdy and Kyle Shanahan.
The Lions finished with the second-best red zone touchdown scoring percentage (66.2%) behind only the 49ers. The difference against the Packers was the 49ers’ ability to stop the Packers in the red zone, holding them to 2 of 5 successful red zone trips. The Lions will complete their drives and keep this within a touchdown.
NFC Championship Pick: Lions (+7) vs 49ers
Here’s a look at some Vegas NFL odds to consider!
Questions Of The Day
Which team has more possibilities to win the 2024 Super Bowl by the odds?
The team with the highest probability of winning the 2024 Super Bowl is the San Francisco 49ers.
What are the betting totals for NFL Championship Weekend?
The over/under is 44½ in the AFC and 51 in the NFC