If you want to bet on the NFL, you better do it early every week. As we advance through the week, NFL betting lines move, so be sure that you get the best NFL odds to win your picks for the NFL this week – and every week, for that matter – before the market catches on. Getting the best number possible is vital because you could get a negative closing line value (CLV) if you wait.
Last week was a perfect example as the two early bets I made were the under in Foxborough between the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots, which finished with a whopping six points. The second bet was the Detroit Lions -4 ½ . This proved to be the difference as the Lions defeated the Saints 33-28 on Sunday, and some sportsbooks had the line close at -5, which would have been the difference between a win or a push.
We still have a Monday Night Football game to play in Week 13 to cap off another exciting week, but we’re here to take an early look at the odds for Week 14 and give our predictions on NFL Week 14 games before the lines move.
Week 13 was another hectic one across the NFL. The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals still need to play on Monday night (see My Best Anytime TD Bets for Jaguars vs Bengals Here), but I’m diving into next week’s schedule. The best NFL expert picks are always made early in the week.
Week 13 Recap
To recap Week 13, we saw the San Francisco 49ers make the statement win of the season, dominating the Philadelphia Eagles 42-19. The Detroit Lions bounced back after their loss on Thanksgiving Day and defeated the New Orleans Saints 33-28. The Dallas Cowboys outlasted the Seattle Seahawks 41-35 in a Thursday night thriller to solidify their spot near the top of the NFC. The Houston Texans and rising star C.J. Stroud escaped with another win, defeating the Denver Broncos 22-17.
The New York Jets suffered another crushing loss, this time to the Atlanta Falcons 13-8. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins cruised past the Washington Commanders. Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams stayed hot with a 36-19 win over the Cleveland Browns.
The Green Bay Packers and the Arizona Cardinals owned the week’s biggest upsets over the Kansas City Chiefs and the Pittsburgh Steelers, respectively. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Los Angeles Chargers took care of business against lesser opponents, knocking off the Carolina Panthers and the New England Patriots. If there’s anything for certain right now in the NFL, it’s the uncertainty on a week-to-week basis.
Looking ahead to NFL odds for Week 14, we’re attempting to get the best number for our picks for the NFL this week. Injuries have mounted for every team at this point in the season. Tracking injuries in the NFL is crucial, but I’ve done that work for you.
As it is every season, the quarterback position is front and center every week. Who will step up in Week 14? I’m here to give you my NFL weekly predictions for Week 14.
Monday Night in Miami
Seeing this massive number will likely scare most bettors away, but I’m eager to get this one locked in before the line moves to two touchdowns in favor of the Miami Dolphins. Bettors will have until next Monday (Dec. 11) to steam this in favor of the Dolphins, so I think it’s prudent to lock it in now against the Tennessee Titans. The Miami Dolphins are currently the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and they don’t want to mess around.
Tennessee suffered some significant injuries in its overtime loss to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. Titans defensive leader and their best-run defender, All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons, suffered a knee injury that will keep him out of next week’s game. All Pro running back Derrick Henry also suffered a concussion in the loss. Roughly 30% of players with a concussion have played a game the following week, putting Henry’s availability in doubt.
Some notable Titans’ injuries: DT Jeffery Simmons is expected to miss “a couple weeks” due to a knee injury, per Mike Vrabel. https://t.co/SzQe4rXrpl
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 4, 2023
The Dolphins have crushed their opponents at home this season. Miami has covered the spread in every game except one this season that saw them favored by seven or more points. Titans rookie Will Levis has shown flashes, but a matchup with the Dolphins defense isn’t going to be easy for the rookie quarterback. With Jalen Ramsey patrolling the Miami secondary, the Dolphins have the highest graded pass defense in the NFL. Without a running game if Henry is unavailable, Miami’s pass rush and pass coverage will dominate the lowly Titans.
I haven’t even mentioned the advantage that Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have in the passing game. The Titans secondary is atrocious. They just allowed Gardner Minshew and a pedestrian Colts passing game to throw for 312 yards and two touchdowns.
The running game for Miami is unstoppable with the two-headed backfield of Raheem Mostert and DeVon Achane, and with no Simmons to defend for Tennessee, we could see the Dolphins run this score up with ease next Monday night. Ride the wave with the Dolphins in Week 14.
NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins -13 vs Tennessee Titans
Trust a Chiefs Bounce Back
The Kansas City Chiefs all of a sudden are at risk of not being the No. 1 seed in the AFC after their loss to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. The Chiefs looked overmatched most of the night as they allowed Jordan Love to put up 27 points against them. It was the first time the Chiefs allowed more than 24 points to an opponent all season. The Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen are on deck for the Chiefs, so it could easily be two games in a row of allowing more than 24 points. Still, I’m more willing to trust Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead than I am to trust a mediocre Bills squad.
Ending of Chiefs-Packers…
1) The unnecessary Roughness call
2) No DPI while defender is on the Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s back.
3) Clock stopping on the MVS catch
4) You all decide on the Hail Mary.
Every week. Same discussion. Nothing changes.pic.twitter.com/giRkWEWmwi
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 4, 2023
The Chiefs have not lost back-to-back games since early in the 2021 season. To grab this inside the key number of 3 points is crucial. Hurry up and lock in the Chiefs -2 ½ before the line moves. I’m not going to sit here and tell you how the Chiefs had a chance to tie the game late in Green Bay if the referees made the correct calls because who knows if they would have won in overtime. Instead, I’m looking at the Bills at the moment. They will have had two weeks to prepare for this matchup as they enjoyed their bye in Week 13.
Despite the time to heal and prepare, the Bills’ defense will have zero answers for Mahomes. Buffalo has suffered multiple injuries to key defensive players this season, forcing it to play guys on that side of the ball without a ton of experience. Josh Allen has gotten the best of Mahomes in their last two regular-season meetings at Arrowhead, but he had much better defenses in those games. In the playoffs, Mahomes has defeated the Bills in two head-to-heads in Kansas City.
Buffalo is 6-6 and is playing for its playoff lives at this point. Another loss for the Bills would be costly for their postseason hopes. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 8-4 and will be desperate to keep pace with the Dolphins and Ravens at the top of the AFC. I expect this one to be a battle the entire way, with the Chiefs winning this one by a field goal.
NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -2 ½ vs Buffalo Bills
Questions Of The Day
Can Week 14 results impact the Super Bowl odds landscape for underdogs?
The results of Week 14 can drastically change the Super Bowl odds outlook. If the Ravens or 49ers get upset at home in Week 14, we will see a significant shift in Super Bowl odds.
Which Surprising Teams Could Make a Run at the Championship?
A couple of surprising teams that could make a run at the Super Bowl are the Detroit Lions in the NFC and the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC.