Include Mahomes, Herbert in Top AFC West Props
The AFC West division is back for another week of action and with it, two of its teams – the two most important teams in the division this season – will be headlining two of the most important games of the weekend.
Early Sunday morning in Frankfurt Germany, two Super Bowl LVIII odds favorites will square off as the Kansas City Chiefs play the Miami Dolphins. Meanwhile, on this week’s edition of Monday Night Football, the Los Angeles Chargers will be heading toward New York where the New York Jets will be waiting.
As far as the Denver Broncos go, Sean Payton’s team will be on their bye week, a hard-fought reward after last week’s massive NFL betting odds upset win against the Chiefs. And the Las Vegas Raiders? After going through a severe clean-up mission that saw coach Josh McDaniels and GM David Ziegler get fired, they’ll be facing the New York Giants on Sunday in a game that causes little to no excitement.
Going back to KC and LA for now, let’s break down this week’s best AFC West prop bets.
Let’s take a closer look at some NFL odds worth considering.
Always Take Mahomes and the Over
I know that in my AFC East prop picks piece, I spoke volumes of how Miami’s Tyreek Hill was going to tear KC’s secondary a new one as part of his revenge against his former team. And it’s true. I stand by it.
But, there’s a reason why the Chiefs are favorites in our NFL lines this week. It’s the same reason why they are perennial favorites week in and week out: Patrick Mahomes II.
Even if Mahomes has had issues in the past this season clearing the over in passing yards, playing against a Miami defense that has allowed over 1,770 passing yards, and with how much attention this game will be getting, I say take the leap and bet Mahomes and the over.
Mahomes might not have enough to ruin Hill’s revenge game, but he’ll surely put in work and pass for 300 or even more yards, especially to his favorite target, Travis Kelce.
There aren’t many certainties in life, but betting on Mahomes to come through in the most important games of the season is one of them. So trust good old Pat, trust me, and bet the over.
Crazy that Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert are ALL on this list 😳 pic.twitter.com/oieHLXP6KW
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) November 3, 2023
Take A Look At These Other 2 NFL Special Articles
- Week 9 AFC South Props: Jonathan Taylor’s Home Run Spot, Big Odds Parlay
- Week 9 AFC North Prop Bet Preview: Take 2 Performance Doubles and Baltimore’s Defense FTW!
Go Under with Pacheco Rushing Total
Does anybody actually believe that the Chiefs will focus their offense on running the ball, especially when having Mahomes go up against another top NFL MVP odds favorite like Tua Tagovailoa? This game has passing shootout written all over, which means that KC could easily skip on a run-heavy offense and just let Mahomes do his thing.
This in itself could mean that going with Chiefs running Isiah Pacheco’s under in rushing yards is one of the better online betting options for this matchup.
Miami’s defense is only allowing 3.9 yards per carry and has kept most rushers it has faced under 54 yards in all but three games. With all signs pointing to betting on Pacheco’s under, follow the signs and make a buck or two.
Herbert to Struggle vs Jets D
The Los Angeles Chargers enter this Monday Night Football game more than poised to score a win. With the chances of KC falling in Germany against Miami, a win could mean volumes for Justin Herbert’s team. That’s why, if there was ever a time for Herbert to step up this season and lead his squad to victory, this is one.
The problem is, Herbert will be playing against one of the better defenses against the pass. One that gave Josh Allen, Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts a hell of a time when they faced the Jets. Yes, New York’s defense, with players like Quinnen and Quincy Williams, Bryce Huff, Sauce Gardner, and DJ Reed all waiting to get a shot at Herbert.
Herbert has already shown this season that when facing an elite defense against the pass, his production numbers take a dive. Against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6, Herbert only threw for 227 passing yards. The following week against the Chiefs, 259 was the number. That’s why this week, I say go with this NFL prop bet that has Herbert passing for under 250.5 passing yards.
Herbert has been held to the under in passing yards this season three times already, and New York’s defense stands as one of the top four best defenses when it comes to passing yards per attempt allowed. So, if you put one and one together, you know what you get?
Exactly, Herbert’s under for this game being the way to go.
Unlock the excitement of NFL betting with Vegas NFL odds and sharp NFL lines, turning every game into a winning opportunity.
Questions Of The Day
Will the AFC West be the best division in the NFL in 2023?
Having the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers automatically gives the AFC West a clear chance at being the best division in 2023. As long as the level of competition can be upheld, the division should continue to be one of the best.
What are some of the most interesting over/under prop bets for AFC West teams in 2023?
All NFL prop betting options involving the over/under of Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes passing and tight end Travis Kelce receiving stand out as some of the most interesting for 2023 in the AFC West division.
