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Jaguars vs Texans: Bet on C.J. Stroud’s Dominant Play at Home

The Houston Texans face a pivotal AFC South matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, setting up one of the most interesting picks for NFL this week. Houston has a chance to get even at 7-4 on the season and sit tied atop the division. Fortunately, it’s a home game for the Texans, but the Jaguars are coming in as winners of six of its past seven games, making this a brutally tough spot, even for Houston, who’s won four of its past five games.

Statistically, the Texans offense has shockingly been more productive this year than the Jaguars, averaging 377.2 yards per game, with Jacksonville checking in at 334.1 yards per. Houston has boasted the better passing attack, while Jacksonville is slightly superior on the ground but has also scored more rushing touchdowns behind the strong play of Travis Etienne.

Jaguars vs Texans: Bet on C.J. Stroud’s Dominant Play at Home
Jaguars vs Texans: Bet on C.J. Stroud’s Dominant Play at Home

Nearly Identical Defensive Statistics

Arguably, the most interesting aspect of this matchup is the fact that the Jaguars and Texans boast eerily similar defensive numbers. The Texans have allowed 337.9 yards per game (241.4 passing, 96.5 rushing) defensively, while the Jaguars check in at 341.4 yards per game (254.4 passing, 87.0 rushing).

I think online betting for this game comes down to two factors: which quarterback can outperform the other and whether Etienne can find his way into the end zone. Etienne could prove to be the real X-Factor in this game, but the emergence of Tank Dell alongside Nico Collins and tight end Dalton Schultz has made for a high-upside passing attack for Houston, which surprisingly rivals the Jaguars’ trio of Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones.

Jaguars vs. Texans NFL Betting Tips

While Texans’ rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud threw three interceptions last week in a win over the Arizona Cardinals, he continued his torrid stretch of multiple passing touchdowns in home games. Over the span of five home games this season, Stroud has thrown 13 passing touchdowns, with at least two in every home game.

That bodes incredibly well for the Texans here and with the absolutely explosive stretch of play from wide receiver Tank Dell as of late, who’s caught 20 passes for 319 yards and four touchdowns in the past three games, bolstering the offensive unit in a big way. I think this could prove to be the difference in this matchup.

Predicted Score: Houston Texans 28, Jacksonville Jaguars 24

NFL Pick: Houston Texans ML +105

Jaguars vs Texans Total Prediction

The projected NFL betting line for the total is appealing, as the over/under checks in at 47½. Both offenses can put points on the board in a hurry, and the defenses have also shown the ability to allow points through the air. I think we see the over clear here, and I’d expect more points than less if I were picking one side over the other.

I’ll lean toward the over, but if you’re weary of either play, a teaser that moves the Texans to +8½ and the over down to 40½ might be the best play on the board.

NFL Pick:7-point teaser on Texans +8½ and over 40½




Jaguars vs Texans Betting Lines


Jaguars vs Texans Game Information

  • Game: Jaguars (7-3) vs Texans (6-4)
  • Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 26, 1:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
  • Jaguars vs Texans Live Stream: NFL Game Pass


The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.

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