My colleagues have already covered the majority of straight-up picks and totals for Week 11 of the NFL betting season, but I wanted to add one of my favorite bets for Sunday to the mix.
The Arizona Cardinals were precisely the team I expected them to be through the first 10 weeks of the season, albeit with one more than I had predicted. But now that QB Kyler Murray is back in action, along with RB James Connor, the Cardinals become a different animal, at least on offense.
Week 10 brings the Cardinals face-to-face with a Houston Texans team looking for their third win after a 3-4 start to the year. Houston took home a shocking win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10 and has a lot of momentum on offense, with CJ Stroud combining for 826 yards passing in his last two games.
Zona in the Zone & Stroud Showing Off
Murray and Conner’s return to the lineup had a predictable yet impressive outcome. Murray threw for 249 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception in his return from an ACL injury. While he didn’t throw a touchdown, Murray led a game-winning drive to beat the Falcons 25-23. He also ran for a touchdown and looked comfortable scampering for not playing in 11 months.
Conner also picked up right where he left off with 73 yards on 16 carries. Backup QB Clayton Tune even got in the mix and rushed for a TD of his own. Interestingly, the only two TDs scored by Arizona on Sunday were of the QB rushing variety.
Current NFL Las Vegas odds list the Cardinals as +5 point underdogs on the spread and +185 on the moneyline. I get this line after what happened in Cincinnati last week and with Stroud dominating defenses recently. The Texans are not a team I usually get excited about, but a rookie QB cruising opponents tends to have that effect.
Rookie CJ Stroud is already better than any year of Deshaun Watson AND we got 3 firsts for him
WE ARE BACK. pic.twitter.com/zefVNArTbh
— Jacob (@Stroud4ROTY) November 15, 2023
I don’t often pump up a 2-8 team either, but after 10 weeks of NFL picks, it’s time to mix things up.
NFL Betting Advice
While I love what the Cardinals are doing, I can’t reasonably add them as my “lock” of the week to beat the Texans outright. Keep an eye on my upset bets for that gem later in the week.
Instead, I’m choosing the Over as my “lock” bet online for the Cardinals at Texans this week.
This game has the highest weekend total at 47½, but that doesn’t deter me from siding with the offenses. The line only confirms my feeling that this game could get out of hand early for one or both teams.
We have two offenses rapidly trending upward and two of the worst defenses in the NFL regarding yards allowed per game.
Not to mention, the Cardinals have the second-highest Over winning rate at 6-4. The Texans O/U record is 4-5.
- ARI vs HOU Best NFL Bet: Game Total Over 47½
Questions Of The Day
Which NFL team is the best bet to cover the spread this week?
The Washington Commanders have the best chance to cover the NFL spread in Week 11 because the New York Giants are tanking hard and fast.
Which NFL prop bet is a lock to bet this week?
My best NFL prop bet this week is for CJ Stroud to score a rushing touchdown. He’s hit paydirt twice in the last three weeks and is proving to be a goalie threat for Houston. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ defense is trash and vulnerable to just about any kind of attack.