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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: NFL Over/Under Pick Week 1

We have an intriguing AFC East clash in Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season between the Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots. The Patriots obliterated Miami 43-0 in Week 2 last season. But they lost at home in Week 17 to the Dolphins when the Pats really needed that win to improve their playoff positioning. 

The Patriots were able to make it to the Wild-Card Round, but were unable to secure the win and fell to the Tennessee Titans. The Dolphins went 5-11 and were unable to secure themselves in the postseason. After an offseason where the team replaced Tom Brady with Cam Newton, how will they fare in Week 1?

Bobby McCain of the Miami Dolphins stretches with the team during training camp at Baptist Health Training Facility
Mark Brown/Getty Images/AFP

The New England Patriots are seven-point favorites in the Week 1 NFL odds at the BetUS Sportsbook but are they the right bet?

Miami Dolphins Offense

The offense is starting to look up. They drafted quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in the draft to sit behind Ryan Fitzpatrick and have signed running back Jordan Howard. They have also picked up a few offensive linemen to help protect their quarterbacks, which should help both their passing game and rushing games.

Miami Dolphins Defense

Defense is where Miami starts to improve. They were able to draft defensive players to go along with a number of big-time free-agent additions such as linebacker Kyle Van Noy, cornerback Bryon Jones, and linebacker Elandon Roberts. Each of those additions will bolster a struggling defense that ranked dead-last in points allowed per game.

New England Patriots Offense

The New England Patriots will have to go through their first season without Tom Brady after 15+ years of having him under center. Cam Newton takes over for the G.O.A.T. This offense will most likely struggle at the beginning of the season.

New England Patriots Defense

While the Patriots were able to re-sign safety Devin McCourty, they lost a ton of free agents that will severely hurt this unit. They have lost players such as Duron Harmon, Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton, Van Noy, and Roberts. The Patriots tend to have a way of replacing parts seamlessly on defense, though.

The Miami Dolphins have had some tough luck against the Patriots lately, as they are 1-7 ATS in the past eight matchups. Although that may change this game as both teams have transformed their rosters.

The under has been hot for the Patriots. It is 4-1 in their last five Week 1 games. The under has also come through in 14 of their last 18 as a favorite of 3.5 to nine points and six of their last eight September games.

Meanwhile, the over has been great for the Dolphins. It is 6-1 in their last seven. It’s also 10-5 in their last 15 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

BetUS Free Pick: Under 43

The NFL totals odds have the Over/Under set at 43 for this contest. The Patriots have a strong defense and are going up against a mid-range offense, and the Patriots’ offense is a question mark going up against what should be an improved defense. Under looks like the way to go.

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