The Denver Broncos knew they needed an upgrade at quarterback for the 2022 season. So, they went out and got one of the best available signal-callers by swinging a huge trade with the Seattle Seahawks for Russell Wilson last week. Denver gave up a lot to get him but, from the Broncos’ perspective, he could be the last piece they needed to be a true contender in the AFC.
Wilson is 33 years old and not as dominant last season as NFL fans have been accustomed to him being. But, the Seahawks were a really flawed team and, with Denver, Wilson has a much better supporting cast headlined by a really talented wide receiver group and strong running game. The Broncos are a good team in a brutal division that might just need something like Russ’ cooking in order to get over the hump.
Let’s look at the Russell Wilson-related props bet available on the NFL betting lines:
Over 4,000 Passing Yards (-110)
Wilson only threw for 3,113 yards last season but he played in only 14 games and, for the most part, had just two reliable targets: D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Defenses were able to lock in on those guys, and Wilson just didn’t have many other places to go with the ball.
That shouldn’t be an issue with the Denver Broncos, who have Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton on the outside and Albert Okwuegbunam at tight end. Even depth options like KJ Hamler and Diontae Spencer have shown promise, and Denver could add more weapons in the draft and/or free agency.
As far as NFL predictions go, Wilson getting back over the 4,000-yard plateau — which he did in both 2019 and 2020 in 16-game seasons — is a pretty safe one, granted he stays healthy of course. It also helps to leave a division that has the elite defenses of the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers in it.
Under 32½ Passing Touchdowns (-130)
Touchdowns might be tougher to come by for Wilson. He threw just 25 last season after tossing 34+ passing scores in three of his previous four campaigns. Getting to 33 touchdowns is just under two per game, which doesn’t seem unachievable, but it’s far from a guarantee.
Something working against Wilson in that department is actually one of Denver’s strengths: The ground game. Between impressive rookie Javonte Williams and reliable veteran Melvin Gordon, the Broncos have two solid options out of the backfield who could take touchdown opportunities away from Wilson and the passing game. They combined to score 12 times in 2021 and their ability in short-yardage situations might make or break Wilson’s chance to hit the over.
Here, if you’re betting online, go with the under. If Wilson misses a few games due to injury or just cedes some red zone opportunities to his running backs, you’ll be set.
Under 10½ Interceptions (-120)
One of Wilson’s best attributes is his decision-making. He threw just six interceptions last season and has had more than 10 picks only three times in his career. There is the chance his turnovers rise in a new offensive system with a new team but he’s such a smart player that it’s never a good idea to bet against him in this category.
Also, as mentioned above, the AFC West is a good division, but it doesn’t feature the stout turnover-forcing defenses of the NFC West. The Broncos do play the NFC West this season but that’s only four games — including one against the rebuilding Seattle Seahawks — and they also play the weak AFC South. It’s a favorable schedule for Wilson.
Broncos To Win AFC West (+225)
The Broncos actually have the second-best odds to win the AFC West on the BetUS sportsbook, which is a bit of a surprise. Obviously, the Broncos aren’t on the same level of the Kansas City Chiefs but to have them ahead of both the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders in terms of division odds is very interesting.
It’s tough to expect Denver to dethrone Kansas City but the division was much closer than expected and Wilson is a proven winner, so it’s not bad value. It’s maybe not the most likely bet to cash out but it’s one you could take and then hedge as the season goes on.
