Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Expert Betting Advice

Vikings Head Coach Mike Zimmer lambasted his defense after giving up 52 points to the Saints on Christmas Day. They’ll look to bounce back in Detroit on Sunday.  

We’ll look at the online betting lines and some props for this Week 17 matchup. Currently the BetUS NFL odds list Minnesota as 6½-point favorites in the season finale.    

NFL Betting Lines

Moneyline: Vikings -275 | Lions +235

The Vikings have won six straight games against the Lions and have won each of the last five by more than ten points. The Vikings will be missing leading rusher Dalvin Cook, due to the death of his father, along with four defensive starters. When Cook sat out in Week 6 against the Falcons the Vikings only managed 32 rushing yards on 13 carries. Their run game will be a concern, but the Lions have given up the fourth-most rushing yards in the NFL this season. 

The Lions are coming off of a 40-point loss to the Bucs and have looked to be in defensive disarray since Matt Patricia was fired. Plus, WR Kenny Golladay was ruled out of Sunday’s game which will make things tougher for the Lions. Even if Stafford plays it remains to be seen whether he’ll be at or close to his best. The Lions are just 1-10 in their last 11 home games and it’s hard to bet on them here despite Cook’s absence. 

Pick: Vikings to Win

Point Spread: Vikings -6½

The Vikings have failed to cover the spread for six straight games, underperforming the spread by a margin of 6.8 points per game during that span. When Dalvin Cook missed the Week 6 game against the Falcons, the Vikings lost by 17 as 3½-point favorites. 

The Lions have failed to win and cover against the Vikings in their last six meetings. They’re also just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. Despite a 1-6 record at home this season, they have covered the spread in two of their last four games at home. Without Cook and missing multiple defensive starters, I expect the Vikings to win but I’m not so sure they’ll cover. That changes if Matthew Stafford is unable to play though.  

Pick: Lions to Cover

Over/Under: 53½ points 

This game features two of the worst scoring defenses in the NFL. The Lions have allowed 32.1 points per game this season, which is the most in the NFL, and a mind-boggling 39 points per game in their last five games. The Vikings haven’t been much better, as their 28th ranked scoring defense has conceded 29.3 points per game and 37 points per game on their three-game losing streak. 

Based on that, I don’t expect either defense to be able to get many stops. The over is 7-1-2 in the Viking’s last ten games and 6-4 in Detroit’s last ten. I think the total will go over here as well. 

Pick: Over 53½

NFL Props for Vikings at Lions 

Winning Margin

Vikings by 4-6 +700

If you expect the Vikings to win but not cover, this is a nice value option. Not having Dalvin Cook should hurt the Vikings. 

First Scoring Play of the Game

Lions TD +205

Despite going 3-7 in their last ten games, the Lions have scored first in half of them. This looks to be a good value prop in the sportsbook.

Total Points Scored

57-63 Points +450

This seems like a distinct possibility given the state of both defenses. Other point ranges which look pretty appealing are 64-70 at +550 and 71-77 at +850. 

 Final Score: MIN 31 – DET 26